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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Pushing Politics to Extract Payments / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

My wife, Rosemary, a registered Republican, received a black and white poll in the mail. Plastered across the top of the sheet in bold black letters was the title: “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.” I wonder who that could be.

On to the questions. All she had to do was to check the appropriate box and return the ballot. The survey indicated name, survey number, and a processing code, all with a bar code for identification. She just had to check the appropriate box beneath a picture of Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, or “no opinion.” Seemed simple enough.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Trump is Wrong on Trade / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Trumps claims (see here) that America has lost high paying manufacturing jobs to China because the communist country promotes its exports through subsidies, tax advantages and currency manipulations. The reality is that we should not care what China does. The more China subsidizes its industries, the more its trading partners gain in the abundance of cheap goods and services and, contrary to what Trump believes, in the creation of high-paying jobs. In an exchange economy, there is a natural antagonism between producers and consumers. Producers benefit from scarcity, consumers from abundance. A producer wants to be the only store on a block selling a limited number of products for a limited period of time. Consumers, on the other hand, want abundance with more producers and products available over a longer period of time. This conflict arises naturally in an exchange economy. Robinson Crusoe hunting for himself will clearly prefer abundance to scarcity.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Black Votes Matter - Is the US on the Verge of Mass Race Riots? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Reader,

Thanks to a philosophy course my daughter is currently taking, I have recently become more intimately acquainted with the British philosopher John Locke (1632-1704).

While Locke is famous for many other truly important ideas, our recent reacquaintance began after I reviewed an essay on Locke’s theory on the primary versus secondary qualities of things, a bit of a brain teaser.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, October 14, 2016

US 2016 Presidential Election: Will US-China Relations Change / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Dan_Steinbock

After one of the most degrading races in postwar history, US presidential campaigns are getting still dirtier. But will US-China relations change?

As Wikileaks has disclosed information about Hillary Clinton’s email and Benghazi scandals and deep ties with Wall Street, her campaign, with its cozy media relations, is promoting Donald Trump’s obscene tapes and comments on women.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, October 14, 2016

US Political and Social Gulf - How Much Wider Can the U.S. Continue to Split? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Harry_Dent

People don’t think I’m being serious when I say that this country could experience a split that makes Brexit look like a tempest in a teacup.
I’m talking about our country splitting in half (perhaps into even smaller segments) and I’m dead serious! While this isn’t a certainty, it’s clearly a possibility you should plan for.

There’s an ever-widening political/social gulf between the right and left. Any middle ground for compromise or agreement shrinks with every passing day. It’s like the Nothing in The Never Ending Story… dissent and social unrest this dark, ominous cloud devouring anything and everything in its path as it closes in on itself.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Syria - Obama Stepped Back From Brink, Will Hillary? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Mike_Whitney

The American people need to understand what’s going on in Syria. Unfortunately, the major media only publish Washington-friendly propaganda which makes it difficult to separate fact from fiction.  The best way to cut through the lies and misinformation, is by using a simple analogy that will help readers to see that Syria is not in the throes of a confusing, sectarian civil war, but the victim of another regime change operation launched by Washington to topple the government of Bashar al Assad.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The message being broadcast across the mainstream media from the serious to the satirical, the likes of the Daily Show or Saturday Night Live is that Donald Trump now has virtually NO chance of winning the US presidential election as his campaign is hit by a barrage of bad news events on a near daily basis from leaked lewd audio tapes to $1 billion loss tax returns with the latest being betrayal from career Republican politicians.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Hillary Deceit, Debt, Delusions / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: James_Quinn

“While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.”
― Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

An American Tragedy: Trump Won Big / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Raul_I_Meijer

If the US presidential debate last night showed anything, it must be that just about everyone has dug themselves into their trenches and had no desire whatsoever to ever came out.

This seemed especially clear on the Hillary side, which appeared to include -to an extent- ‘moderators’ Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz, judging from their interruptions. But, granted, they were the only biased side in the discussion, so we don’t really know what trenches the Republicans have dug.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, October 10, 2016

Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago has been having a devastating impact on what was an already a badly damaged Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory after Trump lost the 1st debate, where virtually each day has tended to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Trump Campaign in Free Fall Going into 2nd Debate, Expect All Guns Blazing With Nothing to Lose / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago is having a devastating impact on what was an already crippled Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory since losing the 1st debate, where virtually each day tends to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 08, 2016

Trump Election Campaign Blows Up Following Leaked Lewd Groping Women Tape / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The deeper one digs into Trumps past the worse things tend to get for his election chances. So it's no wonder Trump is failing to release his tax returns which would likely show that he is a FAKE billionaire i.e. probably has zero net worth or worse. Anyway the latest that the anti-Trump media establishment has been able to dig up is a lewd audio tape from a decade ago, and it really is shocking to hear! Especially so for the republican bible belt!

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Path to the White House is Paved by Billions of Dollars / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

With a month left before the November general election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are trash-talking each other in a financial race to the White House.

According to the latest filing with the Federal Election Commission, Clinton has raised about $516.8 million for her campaign. Total spending by outside groups and SuperPacs supporting her was an additional $31.7 million; the total spent opposing her was about $40.2 million.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.

Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Donald Trump Presidency Reality Show, Path to US Election Win / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst today the battle rages for the US Presidency, ultimately through shear stubbornness the character of Donald Trump appears destined to be victorious which would herald in 4 years of the Trump Presidency reality show, one of a series of sophisticated CGI victories as America takes back control, builds the 'Trump Wall' and of course defeats ISIS whilst slaying the Democratic horde.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Donald Trump's HUGE $916m Tax Loss Equivalent to $300,000 Trillion! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump often bangs on about how much debt the US has accrued to date and how is going to fix it. Yes, the government debt truly has mushroomed from $1 trillion in 1980 to nearly $20 trillion today. However, the New York times has given everyone a glimpse into Donald Trumps own personal financial affairs as the NYT has managed to get hold of Trumps 1995 tax return which shows a loss of $916 million for a single year! The NYT concludes that this effectively converts into Donald Trump not having paid any tax for 18 years. And this is just for one year, we can only imagine what any one of the Donald's other tax returns would show up in terms of paying zero tax.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 01, 2016

How Trump Can Win the U.S. Presidential Election After 1st Debate Meltdown / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Trump lost the 1st debate, it was not even close and Trump's statements following the debate have not helped trigger any recovery as going on the offensive against for instance with his 'fat' remarks against a former Miss Universe that even had Trump backers grimacing or claiming winning in fictitious opinion polls has just resulted in a greater erosion of Trumps chances of winning as illustrated by the betting markets that have continued to trend in Clinton's direction all week.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

Donald Trump Post Debate Meltdown, Betfair Betting Market Points to Collapse in Odds of Winning / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

According to the betting markets It appears Donald Trump's campaign is in full meltdown mode in the wake of Trumps loss to Hillary in the first debate following which instead of Trump's campaign trying to learn lessons from the defeat, instead has increasingly witnessed delusional Trump claiming victory and doubling down on by basically magnifying that which lost him the debate in the eyes of the voters as illustrated by calling into Fox and Friends that literally had the presenters grimacing in response to some of the statements that Trump was making such as being in the lead in fictitious opinion polls and then trying to defend the fat Miss Universe saga.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

After the Debate, the Deluge? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Debate-Watchers,

“I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”

Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.

For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, September 30, 2016

Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!

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