Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
Ahead of the Herd has been digging into why central banks are buying a lot of gold recently . What we’ve found is eyebrow-raising, to say the least. It may be the best reason you’ve ever read for wanting to buy gold.
Take this headline from the Northern Miner: “Editorial: Central banks are major gold buyers in 2019”. Citing statistics from the World Gold Council, the Northern Miner reports that central banks netted 51 tonnes in gold purchases, the most since October 2018, when they increased gold held in central bank vaults by 105 tonnes. Switching to ounces, the Miner states that gold holdings grew by a startling 2.9 million ounces in January and February 2019, versus 1.9 Moz during the same period of 2018. This is the highest level of gold buying by central banks since the first two months of 2008 - during the financial crisis.
Central banks backed up the truck for gold in 2018, buying 651.5 tonnes versus 375 tonnes in 2017. That’s the largest net purchase of gold since 1967.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
What Does Bitcoin’s Surge Reveal? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Rodney_Johnson
If you went to the store two days in a row and all the prices had gone down by 20% on the second day, would you wonder what was going on?What if prices jumped 10% one day, then fell 7% the next?
What if, over the course of a year, prices skyrocketed by 400%?
This is what the world is like for those who view Bitcoin as currency.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
People don’t understand gold. They don’t understand the U.S. dollar either.Mostly, it’s the same people.
Gold bugs thought we were debasing the dollar by printing our way out of the 2008/9 financial crisis. Ha! Actually, the dollar has been rising since the start of that recession. The dollar, not gold, is actually the safe haven for the markets.
Right now, it’s range bound, but the dollar strengthened as much as 47%, at its best, during the last 11 years.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
US Dollar Key Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
A reminder that we are not using the standard gold bug method of evaluating the USD (perma “death to the dollar!!”). We are using fundamentals in evaluating its potential to correct (and launch a global macro trade). The blue shaded boxes on this weekly chart tell the story of Fed policy (Fed Funds/3 mo. T-Bill) that significantly lagged the upturn in the 2yr yield into late 2015. But USD turned up much earlier (in 2014) to follow the 2yr.
Today we have an opposite situation. The 2yr has turned down (putting the Fed in dove mode) but Fed policy is going sideways. We are relatively early in a new blue box and if the correlation between USD and the 2yr holds (in reverse) either USD will correct soon or the 2yr will rise again (and whipsaw an increasingly clownish looking Fed).
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Sunday, April 07, 2019
Litecoin – Love It Or Hate It / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Friday, April 05, 2019
Canadian Dollar May Be Setting Up For An Upside Breakout / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe a current pennant/flag formation in the Canadian Dollar is suggesting an upside breakout move may be setting up over the next 5~7+ days. Recently, the Canadian Dollar has weakened from 0.76875 to lows near 0.74375. Current price rotation is almost perfectly aligned with Fibonacci Price theory suggesting that the recent failure to establish any new lower price level (highlighted on this chart in MAGENTA), suggests a tightening price range as the current pennant/flag formation completes over the next 5~7+ days. It is our belief that as long as the current price level stays above the 0.74375 level throughout the completed pennant apex, an upside price break is very likely.
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Wednesday, April 03, 2019
Euro Dollar Price Bottoming Setup / Currencies / Euro
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Euro Futures chart is highlighting recent support and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems are suggesting that a current support zone may be setting up for a decent upside move to near 1.15. Momentum has stalled to the downside after the Brexit kerfuffle. It is our opinion that this move to near 1.125 will likely hold as support and prompt an upside price move towards the 1.15 price level.
Volatility within the ZE is normal and this type of price rotation appears to continue. An upside bottom/base near 1.125 may prompt a larger upside price swing in the Euro Futures because it relates a “higher low” price formation following Fibonacci Price Theory. This set would indicate that a “lower low” attempt has failed and would suggest that the Euro Futures price would now attempt a new Higher High (above 1.155).
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why the dollar breakdown after the Fed's rate announcement is good news for precious metals.
The Fed statement that it won't be raising rates again this year had a dramatic effect on both the dollar and the precious metals sector. The dollar had been struggling to make further progress for some time and the Fed statement kicked the crutches out from under it, and it broke sharply lower, as we can see on its latest 1-year chart below. It broke below its 200-day moving average, the 1st time it has been below it for almost a year, and it also broke it down below its uptrend. This was a development made all the more serious and decisive by the fact that it is currently tightly bunched with its moving averages, which means that it is at a key inflexion point—it could have broken either way, but the Fed has decided its direction with its stated policy not to raise rates this year.
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After the Fed’s surprise move, the dust is getting settled. We are seeing serious reprising across many currency pairs. Sharp movements practically anywhere you look today. Where to start? With the euro, the yen or the Canadian dollar? It’s hard to choose the winner among all the moves in our favor. Let’s shine more light into every pair covered so that you are as prepared for what lies ahead as we are. Our subscribers already are.
Friday, March 22, 2019
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Argentina's Peso, Nothing But Trouble / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
This week, Argentina released its February inflation statistics. Inflation spiked, again. Indeed, the official annual inflation rate jumped to 51.3%/yr.
While this spike caught most observers off balance, it didn’t surprise me. Each day, I accurately measure Argentina’s inflation using high-frequency data and Purchasing Power Parity theory. By my measure, Argentina’s annual inflation rate is 100%/yr (see the accompanying chart). That’s nearly double the official rate reported for the end of February.
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kelsey_Williams
When it comes to analysis of gold, the U.S. Dollar Index finds nearly universal acceptance. Or rather, when most analysts refer to comparison/correlation of the U.S. dollar to gold, they usually illustrate their point with a chart of the U.S. dollar index.
While they won’t say it straight out, most of them see the U.S. Dollar Index as a proxy for the U.S. dollar. But, is it? From Wikipedia…
“The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners’ currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains “strength” (value) when compared to other currencies.”
The “basket of foreign currencies” used are: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Best Time to Trade Forex / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Is Britain At The Edge Of A Political Cliff? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent news that Theresa May was unable to convince members of Parliament to even consider her current deal as well as the future political and societal consequences of any failure to move ahead with an orderly Brexit deal. The question before traders and investors is how will this reflect in the global markets and how will currencies react to this new?
The GBP (British Pound) appears to be poised to a breakdown move aligning with our Fibonacci Arc structures. These arc structures help us to understand where “inflection points” are likely in the markets and where bigger moves may initiate. The current Arc level, near current price, is indicating that any failure of an upside move will likely prompt a downside move to near 0.739 – or lower.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Will Cryptocurrencies Replace Gold? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The World Gold Council has issued quite a few interesting papers recently. In this edition of the Gold News Monitor, we discuss the most provocative ones. Such as the money worthiness of gold compared to Bitcoin. Or the ongoing gold repatriation trend as Romania recently joined the fray. What kind of learnings can the precious metals investors draw here?
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Consequences of US Dollar Lost Global Reserve Status / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, rigged market pricing, and corrupted demand functions. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK banksters have created the USTreasury bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of astounding persistent magnificent QE abuse and hidden corruption. The so-called financial stimulus is actually hyper monetary inflation, which has destroyed the bond market.
Thursday, March 07, 2019
Brexit Does Not Stop Bitcoin’s Growth in the UK / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
The only thing that is certain in the UK right now is uncertainty, and this is causing fluctuations in the stock markets, as the British public awaits the ‘deal or no deal’ Brexit outcome with bated breath.
Despite the tumultuous and unprecedented period of change we are in, the value of cryptocurrency has not stopped growing. From Bitcoin to Ethereum and countless other cryptocurrencies that are now available (well over 1,000, and new ones being created all the time) the cryptocurrency market continues to grow, comparatively unhindered by current ructions in the Eurozone.
While many businesses keep their powder dry and await the Brexit outcome, cryptocurrency and blockchain start-ups achieved record breaking growth in 2018. The UK is currently dominating growth in tech start-ups across Europe, with £2.29 billion in total venture capital, exceeding that of Germany, which had £1.38 billion, and France, which had £1.03 billion.
Thursday, March 07, 2019
A Plenty of Exciting Market Action in the Currencies Arena / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
What an interesting day it’s today. After yesterday’s brief moment of serenity, many currency pairs are on the move now. Where to look first? Is it the euro? The action looks great and builds on our assumptions surely to your delight. Or are you more happy about today’s move in the Australian dollar? It’s such a pleasant sound to hear the cashiers’ bell ringing… Wait, we have more for you. What about opening a new promising position right now? Let’s dive in for all the details.
Sunday, March 03, 2019
Zimbabwe Introduces A New Currency For Maxi-Devaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Until February 20th, Zimbabwe produced a quasi-currency. It was dubbed a “Zollar.” On the 20th, the quasi-currency became Zimbabwe’s official currency. This new currency is called RTGS dollars and consists of bond notes and RTGS (electronic money).
The RTGS dollars possess legal tender status and will serve as the unit of account for the government’s books. The official exchange rate for Zollar quasi-currency had been set at a one-to-one rate with the U.S. dollar. But now, the RTGS dollar will trade at a managed floating exchange rate. The rate today is 2.50 per U.S. dollar, not par, as it used to be. So, Zimbabwe’s official exchange rate has experienced a maxi-devaluation of 60%.
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Sunday, March 03, 2019
Bitcoins And Bolivars: Two Hot Potatoes / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Steve_H_Hanke
It was just a little more than a decade ago when “Satoshi Nakamoto” ushered in what has become the era of private cryptocurrencies. Nakamoto’s vision was clearly laid out in a whitepaper: “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Cash System.”
Nakamoto’s bitcoin money machine—or as Larry White refers to it: a private “algorithmic central bank”—was going to wipe out the inflation risk and the accompanying loss of purchasing power that plague fiat monies issued by government-controlled central banks. Alas, bitcoin’s source code that predetermines its supply is set on a fixed-quantity path that is unresponsive to changes in demand. In consequence, bitcoin inhabits a demand-supply space in which supply is almost perfectly inelastic. So, to reach a demand-supply equilibrium, all the adjustment falls on the back of bitcoin’s price (read: purchasing power). As a result, bitcoin’s price is inherently volatile and unstable. Indeed, small changes in demand in the face of an inelastic supply create a price volatility storm. Furthermore, unless more demand can be attracted to bitcoin, there is no reason why its price should trend upwards, as many have been led to believe. If speculation wanes, bitcoin’s price could trend downwards. Indeed, bitcoin’s design guarantees volatility, which inhibits its widespread use. In short, it is very risky to hold bitcoins or accept them for deferred payments.
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