Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2021, 2022 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a US House Prices Forecast
Pandemics end, momentum, economic, trend and real terms prices analysis ALL point towards a US house prices boom of sorts for 2021. Targeting a bull run into the end of 2021 of about +10% on the most recent Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 248.5 (Oct 2020 data) to about 273 for Dec 2021 data.
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Monday, March 22, 2021
US House Prices Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What does my primary indicator on the health of the US housing market say that has proven accurate for literally decades! Catching every major bull and bear market of the past 30 years! From it's first SELL signal in 1990 to it's last BUY in 2012. What do real terms US prices say for the prospects for 2021?
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Debt and Yield Curve and US House Prices Trend 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Given the US governments continuing catastrophic response to the coronavirus virus resulting in severe economic contraction then one would assume that the crowing from the rooftops perma bear deflationistas would finally be proven right with their decade long perma bear messages of a US housing market crash finally being fulfilled. So is that what happened? Were the perma bears finally proven right by chance, a black swan event courtesy of a leak from a wuhan bio lab?
We'll in economic terms the US as is the case for all western nations has come under severe economic pressures following the panic lockdown responses to an out of control pandemic with further economic pain expected during Q1 2021 in a race against time to deliver vaccines into american arms.
The recovery in US employment has started to flat line as the US heads into new lockdown's as the pandemic Wave 4 starts to materialise, thus expect US unemployment to increase though to nowhere near the extent of the first wave.
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Friday, February 26, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the coronavirus pandmeic deliver the perma bears their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for for over a decade now?
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.
Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!
This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Friday, February 12, 2021
Portugal’s Rental Sector Saw a Decrease of 13.5% in 2020 / Housing-Market / European Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
As for many countries, 2020 was an economic roller coaster for Portugal. The country rode out the first wave of the Covid pandemic with a commendably low loss of life, but it was the fortunes of other countries which determined its economic fate. The Portuguese government worked hard to reassure the tourists, so crucial to Portugal’s economic survival, that the country was open for business as usual and was a safe destination, but the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and high levels of Covid in neighbouring Spain rendered their efforts in vain. Travel corridors which were agreed with the UK to allow visitors into the country were only partially successful. The uncertainty around whether these travel corridors would remain open and the possibility of being stranded was sufficient to deter most tourists. The effect on Portugal’s economy has been catastrophic and the burgeoning property market has gone into steep decline.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Will Commercial Real Estate Recover in 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
With the COVID-19 pandemic devastating many industries worldwide, tourism and commercial real estate are two of the most prominent and the most negatively impacted.
With remote working forced upon many companies across the UK and abroad, the commercial property market has plummeted; “fallen off a cliff” is possibly the best metaphor to highlight the industry's plight amid the pandemic.
With tourism hit as well, hotel rent delinquency rates grew from 1.5% in the US during January 2020, to approximately 25% in July 2020 according to one report from Yahoo Finance.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2021
3 Dividend Paying Stocks to Ride the New Housing Boom / Housing-Market / Housing Stocks
By: Robert_Ross
Dear Reader,
The Cleveland Browns are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2002. But this almost didn't happen because of a COVID-19 outbreak at their training facility.
The Browns didn't miss a moment of practice time. Rather than hit the field, players and coaches huddled over Zoom (ZM). And they went on to win their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers that made this 17-years-in-the-making victory possible.
Even if the Browns don't make it to the Super Bowl on February 7, their MVP moves will go down in history as a sign of these unusual times.
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Thursday, January 14, 2021
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Submissions
Decorating a house can be very expensive and challenging due to the initial inversion made. Because of this, the house often remains empty and gloomy for months, which sometimes turns into years, without its owners being able to give it a touch of their personality and bring it to life.
From the colors of the furniture to the design of the curtains or the types of pictures we decide to hang on the walls, decoration says a lot about the family who lives in the house. Decorating can turn a house into a real home and make it part of who we are. This is why we want to make it easier for you and give you some tips on saving money while decorating your first home.
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Monday, November 09, 2020
Americans Are Buying Homes Sight Unseen: Here’s Why / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Lester Knispel bought the $1.5 million white-columned house on the second fairway. His Porsche is now parked in the garage. And family pictures hang in the living room.
But Lester and his wife have never set foot inside their new country club home! They live in California, and didn’t want to visit Florida during the lockdowns.
So instead they toured the five-bedroom mansion virtually, bought it, and then shipped the car and furniture soon after. “I never thought I’d buy something like this, sight unseen” Knispel told the Wall Street Journal.
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