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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Housing-Market

Monday, July 20, 2020

US Housing Market Collapse Second Phase Pending / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into what we believe is the US pending real estate collapse, we’ll explore more data supporting our expectations.  In the first part of this article, we highlighted the Case-Shiller data showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels and how earning levels have collapsed after the COVID-19 virus event.  Our research team believes thee extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, layoffs, and other economic contractions will result in a late 2020 or early 2021 shift in the residential real estate market. 

We already know that commercial real estate has experienced one of the worst declines in decades.  Delinquencies have skyrocketed and thousands of US businesses have entered bankruptcies.  Main street and consumer services sectors will likely continue to feel the pain related to the post-COVID-19 economy for many months still.  The question before all investors should be “how will the price levels reflect the changes in earning and economic data throughout this transition?”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Current data released for the May Real Estate and Consumer Spending activity suggests a wave of refinancing is taking place – and not much else.  Pending home sales slipped to 69.  That level is 7.4 points below the lowest level in 2010 – at the height of the 2008-09 credit crisis that collapsed the global Real Estate values.  How big is this new low level in Pending home sales?  It’s HUGE.

It suggests the rate of sales in the US for Real Estate has collapsed beyond levels that were seen at the worst possible time in recent history (July 2010).  In fact, over the past 20 years, there has never been a time when the pending home sales index has collapsed below 74 to 75 – until today.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, May 22, 2020

Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential). 

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, May 21, 2020

US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Continuing our multi-part article related to our belief the Real Estate sector is about become the next big segment to begin to collapse as a result of the COVID-19 virus event and the extended shutdowns taking place throughout the globe, we’ll continue to review the data and explore various options for skilled technical traders.

In Part I, we shared some recent data that suggests the housing market is starting to fracture at quite a fast rate.  Today, we’ll explore additional data that could help us understand where opportunities exist and how to prepare for this potential second phase of a broader financial collapse.

Over the past few years, the housing market has continued to rally past almost everyone’s expectations.  The COVID-19 virus event was simply a catalyst for a revaluation event within a hyper-inflated financial system.  For nearly 20 years, global central banks continued to pour capital in the global markets attempting to spark inflation rates that supported rising interest rates.  This is like pumping Helium into a failing balloon attempting to keep it inflated and floating.  As long as the structure of the balloon does not rupture, it might hold up for a while longer.  Once the structure bursts, it’s all over.

With the housing market, the revaluation event that usually takes place is a contraction in price that usually lasts about 3.5 years.  Are we setting up another revaluation event in the housing market?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to digest economic and global data, our researchers have focused on Real Estate as we believe the contraction in the US economy, spanning corporate, main street, and millions of Americans, will quickly reflect in a slowing Real Estate market.  Our researcher attempted to dive into the most recent data from Realtor.com (https://www.realtor.com/research/) to identify any trends or insights we could find to prepare for a broader contagion event.

Current data suggests the US Real Estate market has begun a dramatic slowdown even though the listing and pricing data does not reflect this data yet.  In short, more homes are being pulled from active listings and those that are still listed are sellers that can wait out their price or are under pressure to sell because of other factors. Historically, Summer months typically result in a moderate decrease in price levels as more homes get listed for sale and “Days On Market” (DOM) lengthens.  Something big is starting to take place almost everywhere in the US as current data suggests inventory is shrinking, price levels are still moderately high and DOM level has increased dramatically.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.

At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.

No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.

Financial history shows that it's happened before.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, May 04, 2020

Ways to Speed Up Your Mortgage Application / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Travis_Bard

Homeownership comes with many perks, and it is everyone’s dream to become a homeowner. Thanks to mortgages, this dream has become a reality to many. It helps homeowners build their credit and make their ratings go higher, get tax breaks, and helps in building equity. The most important is that you will get a permanent home from where you will grow your family and enjoy your time together looking for new film releases and enjoying quality time. 

Getting the mortgage, however, may not be as easy as it may appear. It might take some time before you are able to buy that house that you really want. There are, however, ways that you can speed up your mortgage application. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Saturday, April 25, 2020

US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to delve into the looming Real Estate crisis that will likely hit the US and globe over the next 12 to 24+ months, we want to focus on the human psychological process of dealing with a crisis event and how that relates to economic engagement.  In the first part of this research article, we discussed how the time-line and events that have unfolded over the past 120+ days have setup a continuing global crisis event.  The best of our knowledge, there has been nothing like this, other than massive wars like WWII, that have taken place on the planet over the past 75+ years.

This presents a very real possibility that human psychological processes have engaged throughout the planet that may disrupt how effective the recovery efforts are in the near future.  If humans engage in a traditional psychological crisis-cycle process, then there is little chance that the economic recovery will reach 2018-2019 levels very quickly.  Let’s review the psychological process of a crisis event.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, April 24, 2020

US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event.  We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event.  We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”.  Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…

Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, March 26, 2020

US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system.  If you have not read PART I – Click Here

Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com). 

An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms.  Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, March 23, 2020

Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy.  Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org). 

All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months?  How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”.  Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

There’s More Than One Way To Invest In Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Joshua_Rodriguez

Investing in real estate is a hot topic these days. After all, there are several people that have made a killing doing it. Not to mention, several television shows have popped up over the past few years, outlining the fact that there’s money in the space.

However, the general perception is that in order to invest in real estate, you have to have enough money to buy a house, piece of land, or commercial building. While this is one way to go about an investment in real estate, it’s not the only way to do it. If you’re considering getting into the space, here are a few ways to consider breaking through:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Saturday, December 14, 2019

Top 5 Ways to Add Value to Your Home / Housing-Market / Home Improvements

By: Justin_Weinger

How can you add long- and short-term value to your house? Here are what experienced real estate professionals say are the five best ways to ramp up the potential resale price of your dwelling:

Redo the Bathrooms

At the top of home-shoppers’ lists, fresh, newly redone bathrooms are a key selling point for old and new houses. It’s not the cheapest value-adding task you can opt for, but you will definitely get your money back in the selling price, and then some. If your place has more than one bathroom, try your best to budget for both to be redone. Choose a contractor based on a combination of experience and price and be clear that you want the renovated bathrooms to match.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Does history repeat itself?  Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up?  What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?


First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup.  This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen.  We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike.  They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.


Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup?  We hope not.


Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Monday, November 25, 2019

New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.

What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

Reasons Why Madrid Attracts Young Professionals / Housing-Market / Spain

By: Travis_Bard

Among the many cities that attract young professionals, Madrid stands tall. The daily routine for an average young professional tends to be strict and full of hard work. Therefore, the last thing a young professional need is to struggle with issues like housing and other benefits that Madrid has to offer.

As a young professional, you need a place or city that allows you to live and stay healthy: physically, mentally, and spiritually. In such a city can you be guaranteed positive results and high productivity. The good news is apartment renting in Madrid offers a wide variety of options as well as convenience. These reasons and others are why Madrid attracts young professionals. Let's take an in-depth look into this.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Why Americans Will Begin Regretting Buying That New Home / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

There’s one thing that is always true: Most people are not good investors. They buy the most near a long-term top and they sell the most near the bottoms that follow.

We have lived in a rare period since World War II wherein housing was first boosted by the first middle class generation (The Bob Hope) who could more broadly afford homes and mortgages, and then by the unprecedented and massive Baby Boom generation’s demand.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 18, 2019

The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”

During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.

In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.

Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.

In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.

The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?

These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


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