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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Housing-Market

Friday, July 05, 2019

US Housing Market Demographics / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold

  • Current State
  • Momentum Analysis
  • US ECONOMY - GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Producer Prices Index
  • Yield Curve
  • US Debt
  • QE4EVER!
  • DEMOGRAPHICS
  • US Home Builders Index (XHB)
  • US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
  • US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
  • Peering into the Mists of Time
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Housing-Market

Thursday, July 04, 2019

US Housing Market Is Booming, but Investors Are Still Too Scared to Invest in It / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

The US housing market is booming.

This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.

And Quicken Loans, the US’s largest mortgage lender, had its best month in 30 years.

“The phone is ringing off the hook” CEO Jay Farner said in a recent interview.

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

Are US Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.

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Housing-Market

Monday, July 01, 2019

Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months.  The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets.  This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.

Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.

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Housing-Market

Monday, July 01, 2019

5 Real Estate Investment Tips to Consider / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Umer_Mahmood

If you’re looking to invest in something that will provide you with a steady amount of wealth, then the real estate market may be an option.

Investing in real estate has been around for decades and has proven to make investors quite a bit of money. Much of the success comes down to the interest rates and inflation. What you bought 20 years ago will likely bring you a hefty return in 2019.

As with any investment journey you go on, it’s essential to have a plan. We have five real estate investment tips that you’ll want to consider as you create your plan.
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Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curve

The yield curve (spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) continues to flirt with inversion, currently standing at 0.23%. Clearly the housing market is not comfortable with an inversion given the slowing trend since 0.5%.

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Housing-Market

Monday, June 10, 2019

UK Housing Market BTL Products at Highest Number Since October 2007 / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, shows that the number of buy-to-let (BTL) products available, currently 2,396 products, is the highest on record since the beginnings of the financial crisis in October 2007, when the total number of available products stood at 3,305. Since June 2018, the total number of available BTL products has increased by 21%, and in the past month alone it has risen by 143 products, from 2,253 to 2,396.

Meanwhile, average BTL mortgage rates have also risen over the past 12 months, with the average two-year BTL fixed rate mortgage increasing by 0.17% from 2.88% in June 2018 to 3.05% this month, while the average five-year BTL fixed rate has risen by 0.11% to stand at 3.54% (June 2018: 3.43%). Both rates still stand significantly lower than in October 2007 however, when the average two-year BTL fixed rate stood at 6.36% while its five-year counterpart stood at 6.39%.

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Gap Between Average two and five-year Fixed Rate Mortgages at 7 year low / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Latest analysis by Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the difference between the average two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed by 0.06% from 0.42% to 0.36% since the beginning of the year, seeing it stand at the lowest difference recorded in seven years as a result. The average two-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.03% from 2.52% in January 2019 to 2.49% this month, while the average five-year fixed rate decreased by 0.09% from 2.94% to 2.85% over the same period.

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

US Unemployment and Housing Market Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistic of just 3.8% marginal above the low of 3.7% and off of a recent high of 4%. As long as unemployment stays stable at around 4% then this should be supportive of house prices going forward.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, June 02, 2019

US ECONOMY and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

GDP

The US economic fundamentals appear good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of +3.2% up from +2.6% a year ago. Whilst not a boom is still definitely not deflationary so supportive of house prices as the economy continues to chug along and thus implies US house prices should revert towards the 4% to 6% trend.

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Housing-Market

Saturday, June 01, 2019

UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!

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Housing-Market

Friday, May 31, 2019

US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US housing market since early 2015 had been trundling along nicely on a momentum of between 4% and 6% per annum. However as of the most recent data that trading pattern has been breached with momentum falling to +3.2% as a consequence of outright falls in US house prices over the past 3 months. Therefore given the trend trajectory it is highly probable that US house prices are now trending towards 0% house price inflation and may even briefly go negative, which I am sure will send alarm bells ringing at the Fed, as it would fear that its banking brethren are about to feel some pain, and we all know what happens when the banks start to feel pain!

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Housing-Market

Monday, May 27, 2019

How to Choose a Good Online Estate Agent / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Traditional high street estate agents still control around 95% of the market, but in recent years a newer type of intermediary, the online estate agent, has gained a significant foothold in the sector. Using an ever-expanding range of technological options, a reliable online agency can now offer a similar level of service to their high street equivalents. And because an online operator has substantially lower overheads, homeowners are usually charged a fixed fee which may be just a fraction of the price charged by a bricks-and-mortar estate agent.

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Average UK House Prices Dragged Down by Decline in Capital / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Submissions

Over recent years, house prices in the UK have fluctuated quite significantly. There has been some positive news of late, with house prices across the country increasing by 0.6 percent over the year. However, house prices declined in the South East and London, which resulted in the UK average house price falling.
 
According to figures, performance in London was the worst in a decade. However, despite the falling property prices, it is still the most expensive place to buy property in the UK. The South East and East of England are the second and third most expensive places to purchase residential property. Figures show that house prices in London have fallen at the fastest pace since 2009. 

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Housing-Market

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

UK Interest-only Mortgage Prodcuts Double but Approvals Fall / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the number of interest-only mortgage products has almost doubled over the past six years, rising from 102 products in May 2013 to 193 products today. However, this increase in products has not led to a greater number of approvals of this type of product.

Figures released by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England show that approvals for interest-only mortgages have fallen from 26,592 in Q1 2013 to 24,148 in Q4 2018*. This decrease comes despite overall residential mortgage approvals nearly doubling over the same period, from 183,900 to 323,700.

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Housing-Market

Monday, May 06, 2019

Impact of Demographics on UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Wednesday, May 01, 2019

US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.

So before we plunge into the analysis deep towards concluding in a trend forecast, it's good to understand the reasons why the consensus led by academics usually tend to find themselves on the WRONG side of major market trends.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, April 28, 2019

UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts / Housing-Market / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Saturday, April 27, 2019

How to Make Money on Your House / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

My house is in a bit of disarray. We’re spring cleaning, but it’s more than that. We’ve decided to move, so going through clutter takes on new meaning.

We don’t need to move, but as I wrote a few weeks ago, we’re looking to the future and trying to determine how best to position ourselves. Two hundred feet from open water in one of the more expensive homes in the neighborhood looks less attractive when I consider rising taxes and higher flood insurance. As many of you commented, it might be time.

But now I’m a bit anxious. Other high-end homes in my neighborhood aren’t moving. After making a tentative decision to sell, I have that nagging worry that I won’t be able to get the price I want.
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Housing-Market

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Dangers in the US Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

There’s been a lot in the news lately about a slowing U.S. property market, with San Francisco a particular worry. According to Reuters, home sales fell more than expected last month. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped 4.9%.

I’m, in fact, in Australia for the next two weeks – my third visit in 14 months – because real estate prices are cratering. Everyone seems shocked. I’ve been warning of this for a long time now.

While scanning headlines at 2 a.m. local time (4 p.m. Eastern – jet lag’s a *****), I saw several articles about trouble brewing in the San Francisco real estate market. Again, not surprised.

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