Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Five U.S. Housing Market Headwinds / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Black Knight Financial Services, formerly LPS, released its latest Mortgage Monitor Forecast.
Key Highlights
- Mortgage originations are at the lowest levels in almost four years
- Prepayment/refi activity indicates another drop coming
- Higher interest rates slow refinance activity
- Quality of loans originated in 2013 have made it the best performing vintage on on record.
- Home equity originations are up significantly since a year ago: total HE lending is up 70%, while volume on 2nd mortgages has more than doubled
- Population of “refinancible” loans continues to shrink - Only 5.9M loans meet broadly defined criteria for refinancing, down 4M since December 2012.
- Delinquencies continue to rise among HELOCs that began amortizing
- High risk of “payment shock” in the coming three years
Friday, January 10, 2014
Immigration Drives Down UK House Prices Says Clueless Financial Times / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Having scoured the mainstream press for their views on immigration and house prices for a comparison against my recent series of UK housing market articles led me to the venerable FT that not so long ago ran with an academic study that goes against decade long facts of upward pressure on house prices due to immigrant demand, which instead concludes that mass immigration tends to drive down house prices in a study by Dr Nils Braakmann from Newcastle University.
Thursday, January 09, 2014
U.K. House Prices vs Supply, Immigration, Population Growth and Demographics Crisis / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The long-term battle being played in the UK housing market is that of limited new build supply always trying to play catchup with ever increasing demands as a consequence of the UK's growing population and changing demographics which is set against many other developed countries that are either experiencing falling populations such as Germany and Japan or have ample space to build far beyond that demanded as a consequence of population growth such as the United States and of course not forgetting eastern europe as a consequence of emigration. Therefore this analysis as part of a series on the UK housing market seeks to gauge the likely impact of population growth and the ageing demographics crisis on UK house prices over the next 20 years.
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Trouble Ahead for the U.S. Housing Market in 2014? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: Will the gains that the U.S. housing market made in 2012 and 2013 continue into 2014? As you’ll read below, the biggest threat to the housing market is moving in the opposite direction—against housing.
Sure, the Case-Shiller S&P Home Price Index, which tracks prices in the U.S. housing market, shows an overall increase of 13.6% in home prices in the first 10 months of 2013 (see the chart below).
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Tuesday, January 07, 2014
UK Housing Boom Prompts Landlords to Evict British Benefit Claiming Tenants in Favour of Eastern European Workers / Housing-Market / Immigration
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Rising house prices meets housing benefits cuts benefits culture cap resulting in private Landlords increasingly making the financially commonsense decision to evict not just benefit claimants heavily in arrears but virtually all of their benefit claiming tenants in favour of far more reliable hard working eastern european workers.
This is the natural consequences of rising house prices as rental yields tend to track house price rises where the average annualised rise of 8.5% translates into average rents being raised by 8.5% which pushes benefits claimants increasingly into arrears and thus prompting Landlords to seek more reliable rent paying tenants as the Coalition government has desperately been attempting to cut what had become out control housing benefits payments to 4.5 million households under the Labour government that at its extreme had manifested itself in rental payments of over £100,000 per annum each to over 100 families that are now subject to the benefits cap.
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2014, 2013 Bull Market to Yield U.S. Economic Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
U.S. central bank rampant money printing has succeeded in inflating the US housing market far beyond anything that anyone could have imagined at the start of 2013, in fact a year ago the consensus view was that for U.S. house prices to end DOWN on the year, and such prevailing bearishness persisted in the mainstream press well into the middle of the year, instead as of writing the latest house prices data of 180.27 (SPCS10) published on 31st Dec 2013 for October 2013 puts U.S. housing market momentum at a high of 13.5% per annum as illustrated by the graph below:
Friday, January 03, 2014
Help to Buy Scheme Prompts Panic Buying UK House Prices Boom / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Coalition government's March 2013 help to buy scheme, the extension of which to all properties rather than just new builds that itself was brought forward to the 1st of October 2013 from 1st of January 2014 has sparked panic buying amongst many thousands of prospective home buyers who had been finding it near impossible to build deposits of 20%-25% that mortgage lenders typically sought in terms of managing risk, however now the same mortgages can be secured with just 5% deposits which on the £600k valuation limit amounts to a huge difference between a previous deposit requirement of £120-£150k against £30k today under the help to buy guarantee scheme.
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
UK Housing Market House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018 - Video / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This video is based on the in-depth analysis and detailed concluding trend forecast for UK house prices into the end of 2018, (thus a full 5 year forecast) from the content within the NEW UK Housing Market ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD).
Monday, December 30, 2013
UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Introduction: This analysis is part 2 of 2 that seeks to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices that extends my existing forecast into Mid 2014 to the end of 2018, thus a 5 year forecast for UK house prices 2014-2018. This analysis is focused on the impact of the Inflation mega-trend on the prospects for UK house prices that concludes in a detailed trend forecast and its implications for outcome of the next general election.
Monday, December 30, 2013
UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, The Debt Fuelled Election Boom / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Introduction: This analysis is part 1 of 2 that seeks to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices that extends my existing forecast into Mid 2014 to the end of 2018, thus a 5 year forecast for UK house prices 2014-2018. This analysis is focused on the outlook for the UK economy, debt and QE money printing dynamics and their implications for UK house prices and on the outcome of the next general election.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Real UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest inflation data shows CPI falling to 2.1% for November 2013 (RPI 2.6%, Real inflation 3.6%) which was received as good news as inflation was finally starting to home in on the Bank of England's 2% CPI target rate. This prompted the usual mantra amongst the academics of the risks of dis-inflation and in some cases even deflation which were coupled with benign inflation forecasts by government institutions such as the Bank of England and the OBR that repeated their forecast that UK inflation would resolve to 2% in 2years time that is always the case and I mean ALWAYS, for more than a decade now the Bank of England has been spouting the same mantra of what amounts to nothing more than economic propaganda aimed at keeping the wage slaves sedated as the actual inflation graph below illustrates that in reality there is an over 90% probability for UK Inflation being significantly above 2% in 2 years time.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
A Property Bubble in the U.S. Housing Market? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I love it...
Many so-called "experts" are now worrying about a property bubble here in the U.S.
History says our opportunity in housing is still great. And all this bubble talk is way overblown. Let me explain...
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Will the U.S. Housing Market Tank Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Marty_Chenard
We discussed long term interest rates last week, but it is too important to ignore given the critical juncture the Federal Reserve is at now. (FYI ... there are 4 important charts posted below today that show long term interest rates, median income, and employment. Please be sure to see them.)
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Setting Up for Another Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EconMatters
All that Glitters, is not Gold
The housing market appears to be in better shape than it really is and investors should be wary regarding investing in Housing stocks, investing in property not as a primary residence, and should conduct a thorough analysis of their own financial obligations with regards to their primary residence.
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Monday, December 16, 2013
Best Days for Gains in U.S. Housing Market Stocks Behind Us? / Housing-Market / Housing Stocks
By: DailyGainsLetter
George Leong writes: Mortgage rates are on the rise. In November, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage stood at 4.26% compared to 3.35% a year earlier in November 2012. The average rate for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage in 2007 prior to the subprime meltdown was 6.34%, according to data from Freddie Mac. (Source: “30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Since 1971,” Freddie Mac web site, last accessed December 13, 2013.)
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Friday, November 29, 2013
Bank of England UK Housing Market Bubble Panic is Mark Carney Playing Game of Thrones / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's relentless, monotonous statements of a stable UK housing market for the whole of 2013 that have been dutifully regurgitated by the mainstream media was punctured yesterday as the broadcast news was full of the image of money printing Mark Carney issuing a warning of the risks of an unfolding UK housing market bubble that the Bank of England would seek to take measures to counter starting with withdrawal of the funding for lending scheme for mortgages from the end of Jan 2014.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
U.S. Housing Market Losing Ground? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Carl_R_Tannenbaum
The Federal Reserve in its October policy statement viewed the housing sector as having "slowed somewhat." A quick run through the latest data confirms this diagnosis and offers some reasons for it.
The partial federal government shutdown had a very pronounced impact on the publication of home sales and housing starts reports, which have been delayed for quite some time. Home sales data for September and October will be published on December 4, while housing starts numbers for September through November are scheduled for December 18.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Raging U.S. Housing Bull Market, House Price Inflation Breaks Above 13%, 2014 Outlook / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest U.S. house price data released yesterday for September shows U.S. house price inflation momentum has continued to soar to an annualised rate of more than 13% well beyond the expectations of even the few bullish market commentators at the start of the year, whilst the bears are left to wallow in a state of perma-tripe that continues to go completely contrary to what has actually been transpiring during 2013.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
U.S. Housing Mortgage Bubble About to Burst Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Pravda
A new mortgage crisis is brewing on the real estate market, foreign experts believe. Judging by how briskly housing prices have been rising in the largest economies of the world - China and the U.S. - the mortgage "bubble" may burst very soon. The number of foreclosures in the United States has been growing steadily. Why do the authorities take no efforts to prevent another collapse of the housing market?
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Saturday, November 23, 2013
Home Investing Tips - Insurance, Cost of Owning and Market Value / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Boris Dzhingarov writes: Home buyers often overlook or do not understand the details and ramifications of three critical aspects when buying a home:
- Insurance
- Cost to Own a Home
- Market Value