Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Overbought Bear Market Rally Expected to Sell off Strongly

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Apr 13, 2009 - 10:21 AM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter five weeks of "straight up" price action, the major indices and their ETF proxies are approaching key resistance levels.

Please review the methodology and the significance of the key price levels by clicking on this link.


A weekly cart of the S&P Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY) is shown in figure 1. The weekly close over the most immediate pivot low point at 82.61 will likely propel prices to the next key pivot at 86.78. This is about 1 point away from this past Thursday's close. The pivot at 86.78 represents significant resistance formed not only by the pivot but also by the down sloping trend line and the positive divergence bar (i.e., price bars marked in red). This level served as support for over 4 weeks back in December, 2008 and it was tested as resistance for four weeks in January, 2009 before breaking down in February. The market is currently over bought and investors are becoming increasingly bullish as prices approach this key level. Therefore, I have a hard time seeing the SPY breaking through these levels very easily. Over the next couple of weeks, I am anticipating selling pressure to resume here. If I am wrong, there will be a breakout, which should propel prices to the 40 week moving average.
Figure 1. SPY/ weekly


A weekly chart of the Diamond Trusts (symbol: DIA) is shown in figure 2. There is significant resistance at 82.61, which is less than 3% from current prices. This resistance level represents the prior break down point, and once again, within the context of the current sentiment and breadth picture, I am expecting selling and the market to stall at these levels. A breakout above the down sloping trend line would propel prices to the 40 week moving average.

Figure 2. DIA/ weekly


Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the Power Shares QQQ Trust (symbol: QQQQ). When I last wrote about the QQQQ on March 24 I stated: "The QQQQ is our best performer as prices have catapulted outside the upper channel line. A weekly close over the two upper pivots (at 30.33) would be considered a "breakout" in my book. The last "breakout" in early February was a fake out, but if this one "sticks", expect a melt up to $35 at the 40 week moving average."

I would say that we are on target for this to happen. 30.33 is now support, and I would expect selling pressure at the down sloping 40 week moving average.

Figure 3. QQQQ/ weekly


Figure 4 is a weekly chart of the i-Shares Russell 2000 Index (symbol: IWM). The close above the pivot at 42.38 will likely propel prices to the 47.58 level, which is about 1 point away from the recent close. There is significant resistance in this region - a key pivot point and 2 positive divergence bars. Like the SPY and DIA, I would expect selling. A weekly close above these levels would be significant and likely propel prices to the 40 week moving average.
Figure 4. IWM/ weekly

The over riding theme seems to be that key resistance levels are being approached just as investors are becoming more bullish and as the market is overbought. Overbought can always become more overbought and as we all know, it takes bulls to make a bull market. But within the context of the current bear market, I don't think this will happen just yet. I could be wrong. Nonetheless, I believe the market will require more time and will have to regroup at lower levels before successfully breaking through these resistance areas for good. If wrong, we will know, and we should expect prices to bolt to their 40 week moving averages.

 

By Guy Lerner

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

© 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Mark M
14 Apr 09, 08:10
Pivot Points

Thank you for your insightful technical analysis. One question, how do you determine your pivot points.

Mark M.


Mark M
14 Apr 09, 08:31
Charts

One additional question. when i blew up your charts to 500% it looks like you have a pivot point indicator. Can you tell me what charting service you use.

Thank you, Mark M


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules