Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Performance of Key Asset Types Over Several Time Frames

Stock-Markets / Investing 2009 Apr 16, 2009 - 02:37 PM GMT

By: Richard_Shaw

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomeone on Bloomberg TV today said we have moved from an apocalyptically bearish to a reluctantly bullish market.  That is probably a fair statement for the the moment.  Someone else a couple of weeks ago said we have gone from a death spiral in the economy to a period of slow rate of economic decline.  Then someone else said, the economy is not going up, but it is going down at sufficiently slower rate that it almost feels like up.


Analyst predictions for earnings and valuation multiples are split.  Uncertainties as to government policy with respect to banks and auto companies remain high. We continue to be in a government policy driven markets situation.

How is all that translating into price behavior of key asset types?  In the end, prices talk and opinions walk.

US Assets:

Let’s look at 3-year, 1-year and 3-month price percentage change performance charts for these US key asset types, plus global commodities:

  • US 10-Yr Treasuries (black)
  • Barclay’s US Aggregate Bonds (red)
  • Russell 3000 US Stocks (blue)
  • MSCI US Equity REITs (green)
  • DJ-AIG Global Commodities (pink)
  • US Dollar (gray)

3-Years

1-Year

3-Months

Aggregate bonds have been generally steady, except for the short spike down in October 2008.  Treasuries have risen substantially due to the rush for cover, but have been flat to slightly down this year as the fear factor has moderated.

Equity REITs are way in the basement, but just recently have been rising strongly from a low base.  Today’s huge General Growth Properties bankruptcy filing couldn’t be helpful, although the move has been anticipated for some time.

Composite commodities have been strong in the last few months, but not as strong as US stocks which are just now back in positive territory for three months after their swan dive in March.

The overall commodities indexes are not as vibrant as some of the sub-components.  Gold has held up reasonably well over the past year, while copper and oil seem to have formed a base and turned up.  Natural gas is still solidly down.

US and Non-US Stocks:

Now let’s look at 3-year, 1-year and 3-month price percentage change performance charts for US and non-US stocks plus commodities, and US bonds as a risk benchmark:

  • US 10-Yr Treasuries (black)
  • Barclay’s US Aggregate Bonds (red)
  • Russell 3000 US Stocks (blue)
  • MSCI EAFE (developed) Markets (green)
  • MSCI Emerging Markets (pink)
  • DJ-AIG Global Commodities (gray)

3-Years

1-Year

3-Months

Emerging markets are clearly the investment story.  They rose the most before the 2008 crash. They fell the most during the crash.  Now they are rising the most.  Our ETF price pattern screen yesterday also confirms that trend with the high concentration of emerging market funds among those with demonstrated short-term upward movements.

While US and EAFE markets have reclaimed essentially all of the losses they experienced at the bottom of the past three months, emerging markets have ballooned up.

By Richard Shaw 
http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Copyright 2006-2009 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Richard Shaw Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in