Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video - 25th June 19
Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy - 25th June 19
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition - 25th June 19
What "Pro Traders" use to Find Profitable Trades - eBook - 25th June 19
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Major Stock Market Indices Expected to End Lower Next Week

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Aug 09, 2009 - 07:22 AM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

The good news is: All of the major indices hit multi month highs last week and most of them closed at multi month highs on Friday.


Short Term

Nearly all of the indicators support a continued advance.

The chart below covers 107 trading days from the beginning of the rally in early March through last Friday showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

OTC NH confirmed last Tuesday's OTC high suggesting, at least, one higher high to come. But, the indicator fell on Friday while the index rallied suggesting short term weakness.

Intermediate term

New highs declined a bit last week, but, there was no build up of new lows. The market will not be in any real trouble until new lows begin to expand.

The chart below covers the rally since its beginning in early March showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ (new highs / (new highs + new lows)) (OTC HL Ratio) in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been draws at 10% increments of the indicator, the line is solid at the neutral 50% level.

Risk will be limited as long as the indicator remains above the 50% level.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it covers the past 5 years to give you a perspective on how the indicator has worked over a longer period.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of August during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables show the daily return on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of August during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2008 and S&P 500 (SPX) data from 1953 - 2008. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Over all years the average returns have been modestly positive, however, during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle average returns have been modestly negative.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of August.
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.82% 0.35% 0.45% 0.71% -0.14% 2.18%
 
1969-1 1.52% -0.42% 0.56% 0.08% 0.33% 2.07%
1973-1 0.37% 0.08% -1.09% 0.02% -0.78% -1.40%
1977-1 -0.31% -0.03% 0.29% 0.13% -0.18% -0.10%
1981-1 -0.25% 0.39% 0.13% 0.19% -0.11% 0.36%
1985-1 -0.78% -0.64% -0.67% 0.17% 0.14% -1.78%
Avg 0.11% -0.12% -0.16% 0.12% -0.12% -0.17%
 
1989-1 0.94% 0.34% -0.19% 0.25% -0.23% 1.11%
1993-1 0.06% -0.20% 0.24% -0.23% 0.16% 0.03%
1997-1 0.70% 1.00% 0.55% -0.38% -1.58% 0.29%
2001-1 -1.55% -0.32% -3.03% -0.15% -0.35% -5.40%
2005-1 -0.62% 0.45% -0.75% 0.78% -0.81% -0.96%
Avg -0.10% 0.26% -0.64% 0.05% -0.56% -0.99%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2005
Avg 0.08% 0.09% -0.32% 0.14% -0.32% -0.33%
Win% 55% 55% 55% 73% 27% 55%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2008
Avg -0.26% 0.13% 0.27% -0.02% 0.05% 0.17%
Win% 41% 57% 64% 62% 48% 61%
 
SPX Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -0.12% -0.12% 0.24% -0.20% -0.44% -0.65%
1957-1 -0.88% -1.25% 0.77% -0.28% 0.04% -1.59%
1961-1 -0.01% 0.22% -0.12% 0.31% 0.16% 0.56%
1965-1 -0.24% 0.01% 0.30% 0.29% 0.45% 0.81%
 
1969-1 -0.51% 0.45% 0.55% 0.07% -0.05% 0.51%
1973-1 0.23% -0.17% -0.94% 0.06% -0.80% -1.62%
1977-1 -0.78% 0.06% 0.89% -0.77% -0.29% -0.88%
1981-1 0.60% 0.99% -0.34% 0.08% -0.76% 0.57%
1985-1 -0.45% -1.41% -0.13% 0.68% -0.33% -1.65%
Avg -0.18% -0.02% 0.01% 0.02% -0.45% -0.62%
 
1989-1 1.60% -0.02% -0.69% 0.38% -1.01% 0.26%
1993-1 0.45% -0.28% 0.22% -0.33% 0.26% 0.33%
1997-1 0.33% 0.22% 0.83% -0.95% -1.85% -1.42%
2001-1 -1.14% 0.33% -1.73% -0.01% 0.57% -1.99%
2005-1 -0.27% 0.67% -0.18% 0.71% -0.60% 0.33%
Avg 0.19% 0.18% -0.31% -0.04% -0.53% -0.50%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2005
Avg -0.09% -0.02% -0.02% 0.00% -0.33% -0.46%
Win% 36% 57% 50% 57% 36% 50%
 
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2008
Avg -0.24% 0.19% 0.19% 0.00% 0.07% 0.19%
Win% 39% 63% 55% 48% 54% 59%

Money supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth picked up a little last week.

Conclusion

The decline in OTC NH on an up day suggests there may be a little weakness in the next few days, however, the recent highs were confirmed by most of the indicators so higher highs in the intermediate term should be expected.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday August 14 than they were on Friday August 7.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://alphaim.net/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

Thank you,

By Mike Burk
To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html

Gordon Harms produces a Power Point for our local timing group. You can get a copy of that at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/ .

Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Mike Burk Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules