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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Markets Another Glass Half Full Day

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Aug 21, 2009 - 04:10 AM GMT

By: PaddyPowerTrader


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA real pick and mix day US data wise yesterday with initial jobless claims unexpectedly rising again, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index breaking into positive territory, leading indicators9.24% of all loans are now delinquent rising for the fourth consecutive month and mortgage delinquencies reaching record highs in Q2. . 23% of the mortgages in Florida are now either late on payment or in some part of the foreclosure process.

Still despite poor results from Sears and Gamestop, financials propelled markets higher with Citibank up 8.5% (to its best close since Jan 14th) on some wild talk from analyst Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities that it will triple over the next three years. Also AIG soared another 22% on comments by incoming CEO Benmosche (who will have to get by on $7m a year) that it may be able to repay some TARP monies (yeh maybe this century). Over on the Nasdaq Google was perky after being added to Goldman Sachs conviction buy list.

Sentiment appears to be oscillating between risk aversion and relief on a session-by-session basis. However, the past month has been characterised by declining volumes typical of the summer holiday season. History suggests that trends established during periods of low trading volumes have swiftly petered out once volumes picked up.

Today’s Market Moving Stories

  • The Nikkei average fell 1.3% overnight as automakers were weaker ahead of the end of the US “cash for clunkers” programme on Monday. Shares in the world’s biggest automaker, Toyota Motor shed 2.7%. A stronger Yen also hurt exporters.
  • The overnight price action provides further confirmation, if any were needed, of the market’s current fetish with all things Chinese. At this stage, though, the suggestion that policy makers want to reign in the banks is insufficiently concrete to drive a major reappraisal of global growth or stock markets.
  • Watch out for Bernanke’s speech at 15.00 from the Jackson Hole Conference. It’s a session closed to reporters but no doubt his comments will eek and on a thin Friday may make for some volatility if he hints at any change in the time table for rate hikes.
  • China said to plan tightening of capital requirements. The China Banking Regulatory Commission sent a draft of rule changes to banks on August 19 requiring them to deduct all existing holdings of subordinated and hybrid debt sold by other lenders from supplementary capital. Banks have until August 25 to give feedback. As a result, banks may need to rein in lending or sell shares to lift capital adequacy ratios to the 12% mandated by the regulator. “This move will cut one of the most important funding sources for banks,” said Sheng Nan, an analyst at UOB Kayhian Investment. Banks will “have to either raise more equity capital or slow down lending and other capital consuming businesses to stay afloat.”
  • Separately a government think-tank, the Orwellian sounding State Information Centre, said China’s gross domestic product would grow about 8.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, picking up pace from the second quarter’s 7.9%.
  • Japanese retail investors have become considerably less bearish on domestic stocks with sentiment at its highest in nearly two years, a Reuters poll showed, reflecting hopes the economy has bottomed out. The monthly survey also showed a majority of retail investors favour the campaign platform of the main opposition Democratic Party, which has a good chance of ousting the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in an election on August 30. The poll’s investor sentiment index hit minus 10, an improvement of 24 points on July. This marked the first rise in three months and was the highest level since September 2007 when it was at zero.
  • The next phase of the credit crisis looms, warns the Wall Street Journal. After all the losses racked up from their own loans gone wrong, the banks now face all the losses from the debt they bought. The Journal picked up on the woes of Guaranty Financial, which is on the brink of failure (and sale to Spain’s Banco Bilbao) as a result of its bought investments gone wrong. Guaranty is based in Texas yet it owns $3.5bn worth of ARM mortgages of which two-thirds originated in California and Arizona.
  • As its Friday, play the great flu game.

Mortgage Modifications
Missed this Thursday (you can look such a prat with a Kindle on the Underground) but a Manhattan judge made an extremely important ruling Wednesday – that Countrywide could not modify the terms of many of its mortgages. The reason was that the mortgages had been spun off into MBS product and hence they didn’t belong to Countrywide for it to modify. Remember that the US government has been pushing hard for loan modifications in order to alleviate the worst of the housing pressures (as well as foreclosure moratoriums). MBS holders sued Countrywide for the simple fact that modifications to the underlying mortgages would completely alter the terms of their MBS – in short they wouldn’t be the bonds they thought they held. The story is widely reported in the US press, though the NY Times’ write up is thorough.

More Ryanair Routes This Winter
Ryanair announced that it will operate eight new Edinburgh routes this winter while also extending its summer routes to/from Malta and Rome. The company also announced expansion at its Dusseldorf and Madrid bases, with two new routes at Dusseldorf and four new Madrid routes. This on top of the recent announcement of 14 new routes from Leeds Bradford, Ryanair has announced 22 new UK routes in August. The development of Edinburgh and Madrid demonstrates Ryanair’s appetite and ability to grow at big city bases previously underserved by low-cost carriers and suffering from declining offerings from the legacy incumbents. It is also worth noting that the new routes include four Spanish destinations, all of which will offer zero airport charges for the winter period. This a real hobby horse of Michael O’ Leary.

Another Great Video From Paddy Hirsch
There has been an awful lot of talk about the new boggy man of High Frequency Trading and the long arm of Goldman Sachs causing late in the day pops in prices into what was looking like being a soggy close. But what exactly is it. Well I’ll let the other Paddy explain.

And Finally… A Tip On Negotiating Your Salary – “The Flinch” Technique

Disclosures = None

By The Mole

The Mole is a man in the know. I don’t trade for a living, but instead work for a well-known Irish institution, heading a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day. I aim to provide top quality, up-to-date and relevant market news and data, so that traders can make more informed decisions”.© 2009 Copyright PaddyPowerTrader - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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