Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20
AMD is KILLING Intel as Ryzen Zen 3 Takes Gaming Crown, AMD Set to Achieve CPU Market Dominance - 13th Oct 20
Amazon Prime Day Real or Fake Sales to Get Rid of Dead Stock? - 13th Oct 20
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected - 13th Oct 20
Fun Stuff to Do with a Budgie or Parakeet, a Child's Best Pet Bird Friend - 13th Oct 20
Who Will Win the Race to Open a Casino in Japan? - 13th Oct 20
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It - 12th Oct 20
For Some Remote Workers, It Pays to Stay Home… If Home Stays Local - 12th Oct 20
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets - 12th Oct 20
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive - 11th Oct 20
The Election Does Not Matter, Stick With Stock Winners Like Clean Energy - 11th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long - 11th Oct 20
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further - 10th Oct 29
What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls - 10th Oct 29
This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election - 10th Oct 29
Here Is Everything You Must Know About Insolvency - 10th Oct 29
Sheffield Coronavirus Warning - UK Heading for Higher Covid-19 Infections than April Peak! - 10th Oct 29
Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? - 9th Oct 20
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt - 9th Oct 20
A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade - 9th Oct 20
Why You Should Look for Stocks Climbing Out of a “Big Base” - 9th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Wave 2 - Daily Covid-19 Positive Test Cases Forecast - 9th Oct 20
Ryzen ZEN 3: The Final Nail in Intel's Coffin! Cinebench Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x - 9th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Investors Still Climbing A Wall of Fear

Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets Aug 30, 2009 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: MarketTimingCycles

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany of the major world indices are highly correlated and move in tandem following a move in the same direction and forming a similar pattern in time, at least in 60-70% of the observations. There is quite some research done and available on the Internet on this stock market “synchronicity” phenomenon. In the current bullish counter trend since March 2009 many of the world indices are moving in tandem, nicely following a similar path and pattern in time. This stock market synchronicity phenomenon can be an aid in pinpointing the likely target in time or price for stock markets to change direction in the near future.


The current market position and recent trend of many of the world indices give reason to believe the world stock markets could change trend in tandem again any time from now.

The S&P500 market position

The S&P 500 show signs that a top is pending on a relatively short term. Stochastic indicator (not shown in chart) is overbought. The slope of the trend is getting steeper and steeper, and the trend is stalling as Bears and Bulls are now fighting against each other. This could take some time. Early bears are now stepping out or short the market, but the greed is high and some (new) investors are still climbing up this wall of fear as they do not want to miss the boat. Who will win?

The bears, I expect. We are skating on thin ice. As you can see in the S&P500 chart we assume the market is now moving into completing a wave C of 4 of some degree, after which a market correction of considerable time (e.g.at least a month) is to be expected.

All other major indices in the world are moving in the same direction and are forming similar patterns in price and time compared to the S&P500. Have a look at the charts of the UK FTSE 100, German Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX, as shown in the bottom part of this article. These are just a few examples; there are many other similar examples to find in the world indices.

Where is the market heading too?

Using different technical analysis techniques like: Andrew’s pitchfork resistance lines, regression channels (2 std. dev.) and Fibonacci retracements (wave1-3; Oct 07 – Mach 09) we are currently focusing on a highly probable target in price and time of mid September 2009. Each of the markets discussed in this article turned their direction in the past at the same time, all within 3-4 days from each other. Look at the respective tops (Oct 2007) and bottoms (March 2009) of the world indices as mentioned in this article. Will they do the same in mid September 2009?

The technical analysis time targets point into the same target range for most indices. Natural & planetary cycles, as discussed in our previous article of August 24th 2009, point into the same time target range for a likely change in market trend to occur. A Delta cycle turn is expected as well.  Also September is traditionally known, although there are good years, to have the worst stock market performance in the year. So, it could.

Below you will find a overview of the possible time range for an expected market turn in each of the markets mentioned:

S&P500: 25 aug – 25 sept. FTSE 100: 28 aug – 10 sept. DAX: 26 aug – 16 sept Nikkei 225: 26 aug – 16 sept AEX: 28 aug – 11 sept.

The price targets for the indices discussed are given in each of the charts in this article. It is highly likely markets will change trend within 3-4 days from each other.There is no guarantee we will hit at the exact time price and time target, but due to the patterns formed, the current market position and the correlation and the synchronicity between these markets it is highly likely the market will turn anywhere between now and end of September 2009, with a preference for mid September 2009 (+- 4 days).

Be aware! The current highs in the market are already within the minimum acceptable time and price range for an Elliott Wave c of 4 to be finalised. On the alternative scenario there is still some room for investors in some indices to further drive the index towards the upper part of the channel, but some other indices are already at that point but could consolidate in the mean time, even into early October at the latest. 

See the S&P500 chart as well as the charts on the FTSE 100, Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX on our preferred scenario.

Market Position of the World Indices

FTSE 100

Nikkei 225

German DAX

Dutch AEX

Conclusion

The current highs in the market of the last few days could well possibly fit with a potential market turn, and there is still some room in some indices to climb of the wall of fear towards the upper part of the channel, but the path will be slippery and steep.

If you are still long in this market it is perhaps wise to lock in your profit with a tight stoploss set on your positions. When the market turns it will likely be a volatile move against you and a time you do not expect it to happen.Take care and let the market decide when the top is in. Be careful in shorting these markets too early. Always wait for confirmation; there is plenty of time thereafter to reverse your position when a top is confirmed. Never trade without a stoploss; cut your losses short and let your profits run (until stopped out).Take care and be careful in your tradings.

Stay tuned, we will post more analysis in the coming weeks as to clarify further the most likely market position.

By Webmaster MarketTimingCycles.com

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. www.markettimingcycles.wordpress.com

This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules