Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Investors Still Climbing A Wall of Fear

Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets Aug 30, 2009 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: MarketTimingCycles

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany of the major world indices are highly correlated and move in tandem following a move in the same direction and forming a similar pattern in time, at least in 60-70% of the observations. There is quite some research done and available on the Internet on this stock market “synchronicity” phenomenon. In the current bullish counter trend since March 2009 many of the world indices are moving in tandem, nicely following a similar path and pattern in time. This stock market synchronicity phenomenon can be an aid in pinpointing the likely target in time or price for stock markets to change direction in the near future.


The current market position and recent trend of many of the world indices give reason to believe the world stock markets could change trend in tandem again any time from now.

The S&P500 market position

The S&P 500 show signs that a top is pending on a relatively short term. Stochastic indicator (not shown in chart) is overbought. The slope of the trend is getting steeper and steeper, and the trend is stalling as Bears and Bulls are now fighting against each other. This could take some time. Early bears are now stepping out or short the market, but the greed is high and some (new) investors are still climbing up this wall of fear as they do not want to miss the boat. Who will win?

The bears, I expect. We are skating on thin ice. As you can see in the S&P500 chart we assume the market is now moving into completing a wave C of 4 of some degree, after which a market correction of considerable time (e.g.at least a month) is to be expected.

All other major indices in the world are moving in the same direction and are forming similar patterns in price and time compared to the S&P500. Have a look at the charts of the UK FTSE 100, German Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX, as shown in the bottom part of this article. These are just a few examples; there are many other similar examples to find in the world indices.

Where is the market heading too?

Using different technical analysis techniques like: Andrew’s pitchfork resistance lines, regression channels (2 std. dev.) and Fibonacci retracements (wave1-3; Oct 07 – Mach 09) we are currently focusing on a highly probable target in price and time of mid September 2009. Each of the markets discussed in this article turned their direction in the past at the same time, all within 3-4 days from each other. Look at the respective tops (Oct 2007) and bottoms (March 2009) of the world indices as mentioned in this article. Will they do the same in mid September 2009?

The technical analysis time targets point into the same target range for most indices. Natural & planetary cycles, as discussed in our previous article of August 24th 2009, point into the same time target range for a likely change in market trend to occur. A Delta cycle turn is expected as well.  Also September is traditionally known, although there are good years, to have the worst stock market performance in the year. So, it could.

Below you will find a overview of the possible time range for an expected market turn in each of the markets mentioned:

S&P500: 25 aug – 25 sept. FTSE 100: 28 aug – 10 sept. DAX: 26 aug – 16 sept Nikkei 225: 26 aug – 16 sept AEX: 28 aug – 11 sept.

The price targets for the indices discussed are given in each of the charts in this article. It is highly likely markets will change trend within 3-4 days from each other.There is no guarantee we will hit at the exact time price and time target, but due to the patterns formed, the current market position and the correlation and the synchronicity between these markets it is highly likely the market will turn anywhere between now and end of September 2009, with a preference for mid September 2009 (+- 4 days).

Be aware! The current highs in the market are already within the minimum acceptable time and price range for an Elliott Wave c of 4 to be finalised. On the alternative scenario there is still some room for investors in some indices to further drive the index towards the upper part of the channel, but some other indices are already at that point but could consolidate in the mean time, even into early October at the latest. 

See the S&P500 chart as well as the charts on the FTSE 100, Dax, Nikkei 225 and the Dutch AEX on our preferred scenario.

Market Position of the World Indices

FTSE 100

Nikkei 225

German DAX

Dutch AEX

Conclusion

The current highs in the market of the last few days could well possibly fit with a potential market turn, and there is still some room in some indices to climb of the wall of fear towards the upper part of the channel, but the path will be slippery and steep.

If you are still long in this market it is perhaps wise to lock in your profit with a tight stoploss set on your positions. When the market turns it will likely be a volatile move against you and a time you do not expect it to happen.Take care and let the market decide when the top is in. Be careful in shorting these markets too early. Always wait for confirmation; there is plenty of time thereafter to reverse your position when a top is confirmed. Never trade without a stoploss; cut your losses short and let your profits run (until stopped out).Take care and be careful in your tradings.

Stay tuned, we will post more analysis in the coming weeks as to clarify further the most likely market position.

By Webmaster MarketTimingCycles.com

If your interested in being kept up-to-date to our endeavors please post your interests here and I will put you on our mailing-list.

© 2001-2009 MarketTimingCycles.com. www.markettimingcycles.wordpress.com

This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in