Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Commodities are For Crafty Not Crazy Investors

Commodities / Metals & Mining Jun 20, 2007 - 09:03 AM GMT

By: Dudley_Baker

Commodities Remember my 'Crazy Like A Fox' subscriber? (See my previous articles entitled, “A Crazy Man's Rant or Right On” and “Crazy Man's Rant – He's Crazy Life A Fox”). He continues (like many of us) to be a proponent of investing in commodities and gold, silver, uranium, oil and gas in particular and he continues to prosper. Many people have wondered how he has been so successful so I asked him recently. Below are a few comments regarding his approach to investing both in the past, now and the foreseeable future.


"First, contrary to all the real experts, I can't predict the future of the economy and financial markets with any degree of certainty.  I especially can't time anything that would make sense on which to base trading decisions.  Equally I can't compete with the smart guys, the institutions with all their specialized people, formulas, software and money to do everything top drawer.  Nor can I beat them to the trigger or the exits.  So attempts to time the market, alter my portfolio balance between sectors, investment vehicles and geographic regions is pretty much hopeless for me.  I therefore do not trade, rather I attempt to invest.

When I take a position it pretty much stays in place with a little pruning now and then, here and there.  What I look for is capital preservation before growth.  I look for risk minimization rather than making the  big score.  I come to my conclusions mainly by informing myself of economic and political fundamentals.  Hence technical charts used by traders tend to be of marginal value to me, but are nonetheless a serious curiosity.

What I do know are some very large and unassailable global economic realities...such as peak oil and permanently high energy prices, the power of environmentalists and the man made CO2 boogeyman on public policy and politicians, the time horizons of public policy decision makers being the length of time to the next election, that inflation begins with money supply and credit that is in excess of real economic growth, that the conflict between pluralist and secularist cultures with Islamic fundamentalism is only beginning and will present huge problems for the foreseeable future , that Asia in particular is increasingly driving the fundamentals of the global economy with huge internal demand for infrastructure and internal consumer growth, that the demand driven by that growth has placed the resource/commodities sector in a long term secular growth mode which has more than several years yet to run, that both agricultural commodities and most minerals fit into this category, that subsidizing of corn based ethanol is an agribusiness and political wet dream ,  a huge technological bummer, does nothing for energy self sufficiency, doesn't add any net energy to world supply and will cause the price of animal feed and human food to dramatically escalate in price.  I also add governmental  budgetary and trade deficits, debt and huge magnitudes of unfunded liabilities coupled with highly leveraged private sector debt, much of which is unregulated and not even understood.......   Enough of this, but I can add many more and discuss the implications of each at a later date.

What I conclude is that our infamous Goldilocks economy of the past and present cannot last forever when we have "givens" of the kind noted above.

Therefore I protect my equity with precious metals in their various forms and grow it with key commodities such as those with tight supply/demand fundamentals.  Energy and in particular oil, uranium and natural gas head the list.  Certain base metals critical to the production of infrastructure which use copious quantities of steel and ancillary products top my list of growth potential.  While I haven't taken a position, I think certain agricultural commodities must also be on one's "must have" list.

Summary?  Carefully select key commodities and investment products and companies from locations with stable politics and currency growth that reflects economic growth - read Canada and  Australia .  Sit tight and watch the inevitable.  What is that?  Clearly currencies growing at 3 + X the rate of their economies create conditions for future price inflation and perhaps hyperinflation given the growing concerns over declining values of the currencies of those countries. I look to the future where serious crises will be currency and interest rate driven emanating from reckless financial policies and practices.  In the meantime I carry on with life convinced of the merits of my analysis and not at all worried about the short term rhythms of the S&P, DOW, NASDAQ or bonds. To me their machinations are nothing more than background noise which deflects one from the key issues.

I am currently fully invested, confident in my analyses as outlined above, and sitting back enjoying life to the fullest...good wine, good friends and good times - as my choice of commodities continue to escalate in value. Yes, as someone once said 'I am crazy like a fox' and laughing all the way to the bank!"

Please visit our website to read our previous articles and for education and information on warrants.

Dudley Pierce Baker
Guadalajara/Ajijic, México
Email: info@preciousmetalswarrants.com
Website: PreciousMetalsWarrants

Dudley Baker is the owner/editor of Precious Metals Warrants, a market data service which provides you with the details on all mining & energy companies with warrants trading on the U. S. and Canadian Exchanges. As new warrants are listed for trading we alert you via an e-mail blast. You are provided with links to the companies' websites, links to quotes and charts, tips for placing orders and much, much more. We do not make any specific recommendations in our service. We do the work for you and provide you with the knowledge, trading tips and the confidence in placing your orders.

Disclaimer/Disclosure Statement:PreciousMetalsWarrants.com is not an investment advisor and any reference to specific securities does not constitute a recommendation thereof. The opinions expressed herein are the express personal opinions of Dudley Baker. Neither the information, nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned in this Service. Examples given are only intended to make investors aware of the potential rewards of investing in Warrants. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions involving stocks or Warrants.

Dudley Pierce Baker Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules