Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Gold Surges on Stock Selloff - 18th Jan 19
Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 - 18th Jan 19
Stock Market’s Medium Term is No Longer Bullish. It is Now Mixed - 18th Jan 19
SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand - 18th Jan 19
Fable Media Launches New GoWin Online Casino Affiliate Site in UK - 18th Jan 19
The End of Apple! - 18th Jan 19
Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy - 18th Jan 19
Creating the Best Office Space - 18th Jan 19
S&P 500 at Resistance Level, Downward Correction Ahead? - 17th Jan 19
Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook - 17th Jan 19
Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks - 17th Jan 19
US Stock Market Indexes Reaches Fibonacci Target Zone – Where to Next? - 17th Jan 19
How 2018 Was For The UK Casino Industry - 17th Jan 19
Gold Price – US$700 Or US$7000? - 16th Jan 19
Commodities Are the Right Story for 2019 - 16th Jan 19
Bitcoin Price Wavers - 15th Jan 19
History Shows That “Disruptor Stocks” Will Make You the Most Money in a Bear Market - 15th Jan 19
What Will the Stock Market Do Around Earnings Season - 15th Jan 19
2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble - 15th Jan 19
Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? - 15th Jan 19
Here's something to make you money in 2019 - 15th Jan 19
Theresa May to Lose by Over 200 Votes as Remain MP's Plot Subverting Brexit - 15th Jan 19
Europe is Burning - 14th Jan 19
S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? - 14th Jan 19
Gold A Rally or a Bull Market? - 14th Jan 19
Gold Stocks, Dollar and Oil Cycle Moves to Profit from in 2019 - 14th Jan 19
How To Profit From The Death Of Las Vegas - 14th Jan 19
Real Reason for Land Rover Crisis is Poor Quality of Build - 14th Jan 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy! - 13th Jan 19
Liquidity, Money Supply, and Insolvency - 13th Jan 19
Top Ten Trends Lead to Gold Price - 13th Jan 19
Silver: A Long Term Perspective - 13th Jan 19
Trump's Impeachment? Watch the Stock Market - 12th Jan 19
Big Silver Move Foreshadowed as Industrial Panic Looms - 12th Jan 19
Gold GDXJ Upside Bests GDX - 12th Jan 19
Devastating Investment Losses Are Coming: What Is Your Advisor Doing About It? - 12th Jan 19
Things to do Before Choosing the Right Credit Card - 12th Jan 19
Japanese Yen Outlook In 2019 - 11th Jan 19
Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups - 11th Jan 19
How Unrealistic Return Assumptions Are Ruining Your Stocks Portfolio - 10th Jan 19
What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? - 10th Jan 19
America's New Africa Strategy - 10th Jan 19
Gold Mine Production by Country - 10th Jan 19
Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve - 10th Jan 19
Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 - 10th Jan 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Bitcoin Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019

Stock Market SELL Signals and Inflation Missing from 2010

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Sep 26, 2009 - 10:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEarly in the week I went hunting for signs for high UK inflation in the analysis -UK Inflation Forecast, Will RPI Deflation Return to Inflation? However despite zero interest rates and all the money printing to date, I was surprised not to find it, not for 2009 and not for the whole of 2010! and given the double dip depression (more on this tomorrow), probably beyond. What does this mean ? It means the Bank of England NEEDS to act to CREATE inflation AHEAD of the double dip Depression (again more on this tomorrow).


What implications does this have for the stock indices ?

Answer - NONE! You see this is where many widely followed and quite rigorous analysts such as John Mauldin are going wrong by trying to fit this that and the other onto the stock market indices and then scratching their heads and wonder why is it doing the complete opposite. I was there following the 1987 Crash (which I caught), but I missed that bull run back to Dow 2,700 because I LISTENED to what 'SHOULD' happen, rather than WHAT IS happening, Luckily I learn from my mistakes.

Stock Market Initial SELL Signals

If you follow my analysis then you will know that I have been strongly bullish on stocks since early March with analysis of the past 2 months converging towards a significant correction to begin late Sept / Early October from stock market targets for 2009 of Dow 9,750 to 10,000 and FTSE 5,000.

Both indices fulfilled these targets and this week BOTH indices gave sell signals, triggering SHORT positions (trading will eventually be covered at walayatstreet.com). The indices this close to the swing peaks means that the initial stops NEED Room to BREATH, hence Dow 10,050 and FTSE 5200.

The initial short triggers need secondary and tertiary confirming triggers to be hit before a target can be better determined. However earlier analysis had penciled in Dow 8900 from Dow 9750 and FTSE 4,500. The only negative will be highly perma bears who failed to capitalise on the 55% or so bull market to date will now crow loudly "I told you so!" with the 10% or so of crumbs that are likely to be offered.

LESSON for Today - The further you deviate from the present the more likely you are to be wrong! Forget trying to compare today to the charts of the 1930's, or even last year. Therefore train yourself to react to price movements in real time. (I am sure I have said this before a few times already).

Your stock index futures trading analyst taking each swing at a time.

By Nadeem Walayat http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

Copper Panic and Recovery- 25th Sept 09 - Zeal_LLC
Does a Liquidity Trap Pose a Threat Economic Recovery?- 25th Sept 09 - Frank_Shostak
Stock Market, A Peter Pan Market- 24th Sept 09 -Brian_Bloom
The Global Financial Crisis Explained- Credit and Credibility- 24th Sept 09 -Richard_Karn
New Deadly U.S. Dollar Carry Trade- 23rd Sept 09 -Jim_Willie_CB

Warning - Financial Crisis Not Over!

Martin Weiss Abandons Deflation for Inflation After 27 Years- 23rd Sept 09 -Gary_North
Government is Setting Us Up for a Second Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis- 23rd Sept 09 -Shah Gilani
UK Inflation Forecast, Will RPI Deflation Return to Inflation?- 23rd Sept 09 -Nadeem_Walayat

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

Gold $1,500 This Year- 22nd Sept 09 -The_Gold_Report
The Flawed Theoretical Framework of Modern Economics- 21st Sept 09 -Fred_Buzzeo
New Research Suggests Stocks and Warrants Going Higher, Gold less so - 20th Sept 09 -Lorimer_Wilson
"What's The Best Investment During Recessions?"
Economic and Financial System Train Wreck Dead Ahead!- 20th Sept 09 -Ty_Andros
Outrageous Artificial Deflation and the FDIC Black Hole- 19th Sept 09 -John_Mauldin
The Recession has Technically Ended, Is Bernanke Joking?- 19th Sept 09 -Bob_Chapman

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Economic and Financial System Train Wreck Dead Ahead!

By: Ty_Andros

Many ECONOMISTS AND MARKET ANALYSTS ARE PREDICTING AN END OF THE RECESSION AND GROWTH GOING FORWARD.  MY RESPONSE IS THE NUMBERS HAVEN’T ADDED UP FOR YEARS, AND REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEY CLAIM, WE ARE ABOUT TO COMMENCE THE NEXT LEG DOWN INTO WHAT WILL become known as the GREATEST DEPRESSION in history.  The numbers they point to are POLITICALLY-CORRECT measurements, but practically incorrect; any insights you may glean from them are HEADLINE illusions for the sheep that are being FLEECED and who have misplaced their faith in the government to PROVIDE for them.

Read Article

2. Gold, The Big Score

By: Howard_Katz

Well, here we are with the price of gold above $1,000.  Since this is the day so many thought would never come, it is time for reflection.  I have lived my life in a society in which most of the “experts” have been wrong over and over.

Read Article

3. Gold $1,500 This Year

By: The_Gold_Report

Post summer doldrums, we're now beginning to see a nice fall run up in the price of gold—one that marks the beginning of a parabolic move, according to Greg McCoach. The seasoned bullion dealer, investor and newsletter writer sees a number of factors culminating in ever-increasing prices going forward. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Greg reveals current and forthcoming events that will continue driving the yellow metal's price northward. . .not the least of which involves the commercial real estate market and its "associated derivative sewage."

Read Article

4. Doomsday for the Natural Gas Market?

By: Joseph_Dancy

The bearish story for natural gas is becoming very well known. Lots of bearish natural gas analysts are around - rightfully so. With record levels of natural gas storage and weak industrial and generation demand spot prices have dropped to seven year lows (see chart, courtesy Bloomberg).

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

5. The Recession has Technically Ended, Is Bernanke Joking?

By: Bob_Chapman

To borrow from an old joke about politicians, we ask our subscribers if they know how to tell when Helicopter Ben Bernanke, the current Fed Head, is lying.  Answer:  Whenever his lips are moving.  Now we hear from the Dollar-Destroyer that our recession has technically ended (heaven forbid that we should call our current Fed-caused calamity a depression, which is what it has been since Obama took office).  So we guess that we should take his word for it, seeing that every call he has made during his short tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board has been 100% wrong.

Read Article

6. Outrageous Artificial Deflation and the FDIC Black Hole

By: John_Mauldin

This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation. As I continue to stress, getting the fundamental question answered correctly is the most important issue we face going forward. And the problem is that we cannot use the usual historical comparisons. This week we look at one more factor: bank lending. I give you a sneak preview of what will be an explosive report from Institutional Risk Analytics about the problems in the banking sector. Are you ready for the FDIC to be down as much as $400 billion? This should be an interesting, if sobering, letter.

Read Article

7. Gold in a Beautiful Long-term Secular Bull Market

By: John_Mauldin

The short and intermediate-term future for Gold and any investment for that matter are tricky to navigate. I have guessed right and wrong many times on shorter-term moves. It seems that the best most investors can hope to do is identify the long-term secular bull market (i.e. the major bull market of the current 10-20 year period) that is in progress, buy into it, and hold on.

Read Article

Subscription

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules