Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Have We Avoided the Economic Depression Many Feared?

Economics / Great Depression II Dec 09, 2009 - 08:35 AM GMT

By: Mac_Slavo


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePresident Obama spoke about the economy at the Brookings Institution.

“We acted to get lending flowing again, so businesses could get loans to buy equipment and ordinary Americans could get financing to buy homes and cars, to go to college, and to start or run businesses. We enacted measures to stem the tide of foreclosures in our housing market, helping responsible home owners stay in their homes and helping to stop the broader decline in home values which was eating away at what tends to be a family’s largest asset.

To achieve this and to prevent economic collapse, we were forced to extend assistance to some of the very banks and financial institutions whose actions had helped precipitate the turmoil. We also took steps to prevent the rapid dissolution of the American auto industry.”


Now, partly as a result of these and other steps, we are in a very different place today than we were one year ago. We may forget, but we’re in a very different place. We can safely say that we are no longer facing the potential collapse of our financial system and we’ve avoided the depression many feared.

This all sounds great, and if you were a follower of only the news coming out of the White House or main stream media, you might actually believe this drivel.

Commercial and Consumer Lending

Lending has not started flowing yet. In fact, according to the Federal Reserve, as of October 9, 2009, total loans at commercial banks have fallen at a 19% annual rate over the past three months, while loans to businesses have dropped at a 28% annualized pace. (source: Market Watch)

Contrary to Mr. Obama’s review of the facts, consumer lending has not improved, and has dropped significantly, even while banks were supposedly lending. To make it easy for non-believers, we direct you to a graphical representation of this, provided by Karl Denninger at Market Ticker:

Home Prices and Foreclosures

For the time being, it can be argued that the broader decline in home prices has been stopped. But really, it’s more of a delay than anything else. Home prices were overvalued at the top of the real estate bubble. Will anyone really argue this point? Here is an excellent and simple to understand video from Glen Beck. You’ll notice that housing prices were inflated nearly 100% over what the average cost of a home should be in real terms based on decades of data:

If cyclical analyst Martin Armstrong is right about his Forecast for Real Estate, we can expect the real estate bust to continue for not months, not years, but possibly decades.

Regarding foreclosures, a responsible observer must wonder if we have actually “stemmed” the tide. Perhaps we have seen some month over month positive numbers, but the broader trend is pointing up for foreclosures and delinquencies, especially if you consider the fact that a second wave of the mortgage meltdown is going to fire up some time in the 2nd quarter of next year.

Forced Bail Outs

No one “forced” the White House, Congress, Fed and Treasury to bail out incompetent financial institutions. If anything, it was these government branches and agencies that forced the American taxpayer to be used as collateral to bailout companies that should have gone broke. They are, in fact, still insolvent, and it is a matter of time before the mathematical reality hits.

Did we really prevent the rapid dissolution of the American auto industry? Perhaps no one has noticed, but the fact of the matter is, auto sales are down, significantly, year over year, as is detailed in the following chart from Motor Intelligence:

Cash for clunkers did nothing but extend the game a bit longer and strap tens of thousands of Americans with more debt in a time when they should be saving, not spending. The cars sold actually pulled forward future sales, so we may very well continue to see car sales decline further in 2010 and beyond.

The Depression Has Been Avoided

As mentioned previously, it is likely that the banking system is insolvent. For more information on this, we can turn to one of our favorite analysts yet again, Karl Denninger:

The entire banking system and likely The Fed, given the quantity of Fannie and Freddie paper it has been and is “eating”, is insolvent.  These facts are why the government is lying - they’re well-aware of the near-zero cure rates and know that these facts mean that the banking industry has nowhere near sufficient capital to withstand these losses without folding like a paper cup getting stomped on by an elephant.

Mr. Obama’s comments are a blast from the past. In June of 1930, when a delegation came to see Herbert Hoover to request a public works program, President Hoover responded with:

“”Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over.”

From the time President Hoover made his comments in June to December 31, 1930, the Dow Jones dropped 33%. By December of 1931, the Dow had dropped a whopping 70%. We know the rest of the story.

A depression has not been avoided. Some have not yet noticed. Some refuse to admit it. Others realize what is happening.

We are living through the next Great Depression right here and now.

Click here to watch the President’s speech at the Brookings Institution…

By Mac Slavo

Mac Slavo is a small business owner and independent investor focusing on global strategies to protect, preserve and increase wealth during times of economic distress and uncertainty. To read our commentary, news reports and strategies, please visit .

© 2009 Copyright Mac Slavo - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules