Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Independent Scotland Will Disintegrate as Unionist Regions Demand Referendum's to Rejoin UK - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Bank of England Panic! Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Scotland Independence Result NO Win 55% to Yes on 45% - Nadeem_Walayat
5.US Dollar Forecast to Go Much Higher - David_Petch
6.Russian Union Of Engineers Accuses Ukraine Airforce In MH17 Crash - Raul_I_Meijer
7.The Emergence of the US Petro-Dollar - Gary_Dorsch
8.Don't Miss This Gold Buying Opportunity - Brien Lundinr
9.Silver Price: A Collapse and a Rally - DeviantInvesto
10.Silver Buyers Keep Stacking And Demand Higher Despite Falling Prices - 18th Sept 14 - GoldCore
Last 5 days
Tesco Super Market Giant Fast Disappearing Down a Financial Black Hole - 22nd Sept 14
Where China and Japan Are Investing Billions - 22nd Sept 14
Scotland YES 71% - Global Youth Intifada Moves On - 22nd Sept 14
U.S. Dollar: The Last Hurrah? - 22nd Sept 14
China Moves To Dominate Gold Market With Physical Exchange - 22nd Sept 14
One Giant Cluster Ponzi - 22nd Sept 14
The Millenial Cult Of Global Warming - 22nd Sept 14
Dubai Residential is NOT a Property Bubble But the Party’s Over - 22nd Sept 14
Stock Market Topping Process Update - 22nd Sept 14
Indian Stock Market BSE SENSEX The Encore Rally - 21st Sept 14
ISIS Fear-Mongering Ahead of Another US False Flag? - 21st Sept 14
Ecology Politics And Haeckel's Tree Of Meaning - 21st Sept 14
ASX200 Stock Market Index Set For New Highs - 21st Sept 14
Scottish Referendum Not Avoiding The Future - 21st Sept 14
Five Lessons Learned from the Scottish Referendum - 21st Sept 14
The Problem With UKIP And Other I I P's - 21st Sept 14
Stocks Bull Market Resumes - 20th Sept 14
Gold And Silver - Current Price Is The Story - 20th Sept 14
Can the U.S. Economy Withstand Another Housing Market Breakdown? - 20th Sept 14
Nervous Investors Will Hate the Money You Make With This Strategy - 20th Sept 14
Cheap Gold Stocks Upleg Intact - 20th Sept 14
Monetary Policy Killing The System - 20th Sept 14
Scotland and the Spirit of Our Time - 20th Sept 14
Bitcoin Price Charts In-Depth Analysis - 19th Sept 14
Alibaba is Focused, Will Use Money in Emerging Areas - 19th Sept 14
Bird's Eye View of the Gold Stocks - 19th Sept 14
Scotland Independence Result NO Win 55% to Yes on 45% - 18th Sept 14
Silver Price: A Collapse and a Rally - 18th Sept 14
Here's Why Trendlines are Your New Trading Best Friend - 18th Sept 14
Silver Buyers Keep Stacking And Demand Higher Despite Falling Prices - 18th Sept 14
The "Hidden" Billions in the Alibaba IPO - 18th Sept 14
Russian Union Of Engineers Accuses Ukraine Airforce In MH17 Crash - 18th Sept 14
Monetary Policy Weighs on Gold and Silver - 18th Sept 14
Global Currencies Analysis...The World According to Chartology - 18th Sept 14
Gold Price Hammered by Strong U.S. Dollar - 18th Sept 14
Is Citigroup the Dumbest Bank Ever? - 18th Sept 14
Scotland Must Vote Yes! For All Of Us - 18th Sept 14
Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast - 18th Sept 14
A Public Bank Option for and Independent Scotland - 17th Sept 14
The Charade of Independence for Scotland and UKIP - 17th Sept 14
Gold Report - U.S. National Debt Surges $1 Trillion In Just 12 Months - 17th Sept 14
How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market Using Fibonacci Analysis - 17th Sept 14
Why Money Is Worse Than Debt - 17th Sept 14
Can Gold Price Finally Recover? - 17th Sept 14
Scotland Independence - Europe Holds Its Breath - 17th Sept 14
The Energy Prices at Risk with Scottish Independence - 17th Sept 14
Scottish Independence SNP Lies on NHS, Economy, Debt, Oil and Currency - 17th Sept 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

You've never seen this before and may never again

Hedge Fund Titan John Paulson Bullish on Bonds and Equities, Inflation Concerns Remain

Stock-Markets / Investing 2010 Dec 09, 2009 - 09:59 AM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Paulson... super bull? Goodness.  To some degree I find "whale watching" a bit overrated, but after being the most obvious winner of the mortgage meltdown, and then piling into gold ahead of a huge run ... Paulson's moves are watched by the investment world very closely.


One of the hottest investors on the planet is now chock full of bonds - especially the moral hazard kind (i.e. backstopped by US government).  And has his highest net long exposure in "a long time".  No one will be correct forever, but it does make you stand notice...especially since his success is based on actually making big macro calls rather than building an army of computers co-located as close as possible to a stock exchange, so he can surge ahead of your order by 4/1000ths of a second to make mad money. Via Reuters:

  • Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said on Tuesday he still sees compelling long-term returns in equities even after their sharp run-up this year, while holding no short positions in the credit markets.
  • "Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio," Paulson said during a luncheon presentation at the Japan Society.
  • Paulson, who has run his own hedge fund since 1994, has become a star investor after correctly predicting the sub-prime credit crisis in 2007. That reaped him a $3 billion profit.
Stocks
  • "We still find a lot of compelling long investments on the equity side," he said, citing specifically Bank of America (BAC), U.S. cable-television giant Comcast Corp (CMCSA), and Germany's HeidelbergCement AG (HEIG.DE).
  • Paulson said that at the end of 2008 he viewed the credit correction as having run its course. By April he had poured cash back into the sector.  "That is why we don't have any shorts in credit," he said.
  • Based on his estimates of the company's (BAC) earnings potential and the expectation that loan loss provisions will start to drop in 2010, Paulson remained upbeat on the beleaguered bank.  "I think the worst is behind us in terms of provisioning," Paulson said, adding: "I would expect provisioning expense to be considerably lower in 2010 versus '09 and again much lower in 2011 versus 2010."
Credit
  • Given his prescient bearish call on mortgage credits, Paulson's views are widely watched for what he has in his $33 billion investment portfolio.
  • He highlighted the attractive yields on credit issued by GMAC due in Sept 2011, the former General Motors automotive financing company that the U.S. government propped up at the end of 2008.
  • By Paulson's thinking, the government involvement is equivalent to an explicit guarantee on GMAC's finances.  (you cannot disagree with that)  "So instead of buying (a) Treasury bond which yields 84 basis points, I can buy GMAC which is almost, I consider equivalent to a government bond and I can get 11 percent. That is why we have allocated so much money to this particular security," he said.
Inflation
  • Even as credit and equity markets looked attractive, he did reiterate his concerns that over the long-term inflation will be a problem because the government's mountain of stimulus cash will be difficult, politically, to withdraw from the economy.
  • "Therefore we are concerned about high rates of inflation in the future. As an investor I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars," he said.
  • "So I looked for another currency in which to denominate my assets in. I feel that gold is the best currency."  "An increase in the monetary base leads to an increase in the money supply, which then leads to inflation." ('output gap' be damned... the return of the late 70s, ealry 80s only this time no Volcker in charge - only ever easy Ben)
  • Paulson's combined gold and gold-related investments made up more than 46 percent of his firm's holdings at the end of the second quarter of this year.  (staggering... just staggering)
Via FT.com
  • "There are lots more long opportunities than short opportunities in the market. Zero interest rates are a huge tonic," he added.
  • "The amount of quantitative easing has stimulated financial markets and will start to appear in the real sector," he said.  This is what the US Federal Reserve hopes will happen: that easy money will lead to asset price reflation, lifting confidence and fueling a recovery in the real economy.
  • ... other large positions are in Heidelberg Cement and Renault, an indirect bet on consumer demand in emerging markets.

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2009 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014