Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Remains in a Correction

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Feb 21, 2010 - 02:13 PM GMT

By: Peter_Navarro

Stock-Markets

The market action in the United States from last week provided some small encouragement that the stock market may be finding a new floor. That said, there remains significant cross currents buffeting this market which suggests continued caution.


On the bullish front, it is abundantly clear that the business investment driver in the GDP equation is hitting on all cylinders. The ISM Manufacturing Index continues to trend strongly upward and the ECRI Weekly Leading Index projects continued expansion. Meanwhile, the yield curve spread continues to show a steepening yield curve, which typically points to expansion. These are signs of recovery that should not be ignored by anyone.

That said, on the bearish front, there continue to be problems both in the three major other elements of the GDP growth equation as well as with issues beyond the United States border.

For example, consumer confidence remains in a sideways pattern and is anything but bullish while the housing market remains in a funk. This is important because one of the biggest question marks for long-term recovery is whether or not the consumer will step in and buy all of the inventory that businesses are now piling onto the shelves. And don't forget, unemployment hovers around 10% while the actual rate of unemployment is probably closer to 15% or higher. That's less wages and less purchasing power and less growth.

In the government element of the GDP equation, we are seeing a massive expansion of the government sector. While this may be bullish in the very short run, the rapidly rising debt burden will soon put upward pressure on long-term interest rates and likely crowd out business investment and hammer hard on me mortgage and housing markets.

Meanwhile, at the state government spending level, states like California and Ohio are facing insolvency. The likely result will be more government layoffs, reduced expenditures, and/or higher taxes. Regardless of your ideological orientation, it should be clear that the overall impact of the state budget crises will be contractionary.

Finally, the Greek tragedy in Europe, which is causing the euro to fall relative to the dollar, can only hurt US exports to Europe -- with exports being one of the few bright spots over the last several years in the US growth story.

As for Europe, the prediction I have made is that the euro is not dead. However, the growth of the euro beyond 16 countries in the European monetary zone is as dead as it can possibly be. Indeed, there is a high probability that within 12 to 24 months, Greece will bailout of the euro and readopt the Drachma. The reason: it will be a lot less painless for the Greek economy to recover by selling more exports to its neighbors than by going on an austerity kick to please Greece's German Masters.

Finally, finally, there is the big bad Chinese menace. China is desperately trying to control inflationary pressures in its economy, and if it contracts too sharply, that will send a contractionary ripple effect across Asia which will eventually hit US shores.

On top of this, the Chinese government is increasingly revealing its dark side to the world with its bullying and its threats to the United States over everything from Taiwan to Tibet and the Dalai Lama. My own theory here is that Chinese are doing this not out of passion but rather strategy. It is a way of misdirecting attention away from the number one issue between the US and China, which is China's currency manipulation. At any rate, at some point I hope the American people and the American government wake up to the fact that the greatest country in the world should not be in a position where a totalitarian dictatorship can bully us.

My bottom line this week is this: there are many months in any given year where the stock market trend is clearly defined and you can go either short or long with great confidence and thereby be an intelligent speculator. These last few months have not been such a time. While last week's market action provided some glimmer of hope that the market might resume its upward trend, I continue to hold most of my portfolio in cash amidst a sideways pattern in the market.

My one big macro bet remains CYB, which is a bet that the yuan will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. I like this that because there's virtually no downside risk -- that is, there is no scenario where the yuan depreciates against the dollar. I also continue to hold a portion of my portfolio in small-cap biotech stocks like PBTH, CHTP, HALO, and DUSA.

Professor Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the MIT Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. His free weekly newsletter is published at www.PeterNavarro.com.

© 2010 Copyright Peter Navarro - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in