Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Paving the Way for Massive First Strike on North Korea Nuclear and Missile Infrastructure - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Junior Mining Stocks 2017 Q2 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
4.Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The Bitcoin Blueprint To Your Financial Freedom - Sean Keyes
6.North Korea 'Begging for War', 'Enough is Enough', is a US Nuclear Strike Imminent? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Hits All-Time High and Smashes Through $5,000 As Gold Shows Continued Strength - Jeff_Berwick
8.2017 is NOT "Just Another Year" for the Stock Market: Here's Why - EWI
9.Gold : The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process - Rambus_Chartology
10.Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures - 18th Oct 17
Surge in UK Race Hate Crimes, Micro-Racism, Sheffield, Millhouses Park, Black on Asian - 18th Oct 17
Comfortably Numb: Surviving the Assault on Silver - 17th Oct 17
Are Amey Street Tree Felling's Devaluing Sheffield House Prices? - 17th Oct 17
12 Real-Life Techniques That Will Make You a Better Trader Now - 17th Oct 17
Warren Buffett Predicting Dow One Million - Being Bold Or Overly Cautious? - 17th Oct 17
Globalization is Poverty - 17th Oct 17
Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Trading Dow Theory - 16th Oct 17
Stocks Slightly Higher as They Set New Record Highs - 16th Oct 17
Why is Big Data is so Important for Casino Player Acquisition and Retention - 16th Oct 17
How Investors Can Play The Bitcoin Boom - 16th Oct 17
Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  - 16th Oct 17
Stock Market Only Minor Top Ahead - 16th Oct 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 16th Oct 17
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target - 16th Oct 17
The Bullish Chartology for Gold - 15th Oct 17
Wikileaks Mocking US Government Over Bitcoin Shows Why There Is No Stopping Bitcoin - 15th Oct 17
How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders - 15th Oct 17
Gold And Silver – Think Prices Are Manipulated? Look In The Mirror! - 15th Oct 17
Q4 Pivot View for Stocks and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’17 Preview - 14th Oct 17
U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales and VIX Point To Increased Market Volatility and Higher Gold - 14th Oct 17
Yuan and Gold - 14th Oct 17
Tips for Avoiding a Debt Meltdown - 14th Oct 17
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $5,000 As Lagarde Concedes Defeat and Jamie Demon Shuts Up - 13th Oct 17
Golden Age for GOLD, Dark Age for the Stock Market - 13th Oct 17
The Struggle for Bolivia Is About to Begin - 13th Oct 17
3 Reasons to Take Your Invoicing Process Mobile - 13th Oct 17
What Happens When Amey Fells All of a Streets Trees (Sheffield Tree Fellings) - Video - 13th Oct 17
Stock Market Charts Show Smart Money And Dumb Money Are Moving In Opposite Directions—Here’s Why - 12th Oct 17
Your Pension Is a Lie: There’s $210 Trillion of Liabilities Our Government Can’t Fulfill - 12th Oct 17
Two Highly Recommended Books from Bob Prechter - 12th Oct 17
Turning Point Nations On The Stage - 11th Oct 17
The Profoundly Personal Impact Of The National Debt On Our Retirements - 11th Oct 17
Gold and Silver Report – Several Interesting Charts - 10th Oct 17
London House Prices Are Falling – Time to Buckle Up - 10th Oct 17
The S&P Is A Bloated Corpse - 10th Oct 17
Are Gold and the US Dollar Rallying Together? - 10th Oct 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See - Free

Gold and Silver Stocks Correlation with the General Stock Market

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Feb 23, 2010 - 07:40 PM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the previous essay, we commented on the recent developments in the price of gold. The technical part of this week's essay is dedicated to the situation in the precious metals stocks and the general stock market. The prices of these stocks are highly correlated with the underlying metals, which means that the following analysis is useful also to Investors and Speculators following the spot prices of gold and silver.


We summarized that the precious metals market has moved higher, and it appears that it will need to take a small breather relatively soon, and this is what we've seen so far this week. Still, the long-term picture didn't change much. Let's take a look on the chart below for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com.)

The analysis of the long-term HUI chart suggests that gold stocks may need to move a little higher before forming a temporary top. In the past, local tops have been formed after HUI Index moved above the 50-day moving average, which hasn't been the case yet.

Given the strength of the current rally and the previous performance of PM stocks after the bottom, it seems that the coming correction is likely to be relatively small. Naturally, that is the case if the general stock market doesn't begin a massive plunge soon.

Speaking of the general stock market and its influence on the prices of precious metals, please take a look at the current version of the correlation matrix.

The above numbers don't look too encouraging for precious metals bulls given the situation on the general stock market. In the previous Premium Update we wrote the following:

An interesting fact is that the very-short-term (based on just 10 trading days) influence of the HUI Index is stronger for the general stock market than it is even for gold. In other words, during the last 10 trading days, gold stocks were more closely following main stock indices than there were following gold.

Not only is this tendency still present, but it is also much more visible in other parts of the precious metals market. The correlation coefficients for S&P and gold, silver, and juniors are currently very strong. This means that if we don't see signs of a disconnection between these markets in the coming weeks, it will become much more likely that the next medium-term (months) move will be down, not up.

For now, we are waiting for a disconnection between the main stock indices and the USD Index, to estimate which of these markets PMs are likely to follow next. We wrote about this phenomenon two weeks ago, but since it is relevant also today, we will quote a part of the previous update below:

(…) we have to wait for additional signals of confirmation for either of the two scenarios (general stock market plunges along with PMs or without them). So far both markets have been declining together.

The first thing to monitor is the way PMs react to changes in the value of the main stock indices - especially gold, because silver and PM stocks are historically more correlated with the general stock market (silver's industrial uses etc.), so high correlation here is not much of a divergence. If PMs trade very much in tune with the general stock market during both upswings and downswings and we don't have identical moves in the USD Index (as we will see in the main stock indices - but in the opposite direction), then PMs may be in trouble.

If, on the other hand, PMs stop declining or even rise modestly along with falling main stock indices, it will mean that even more declines should not cause serious damage to the PM market.

Additionally, if we see the USD Index move higher and PMs refuse to move lower, it will give us a "probably the bottom is in" signal. The abovementioned phenomena should be visible for at least several days before we can make decisive calls.

Unfortunately, if the USD Index and the main stock indices trade in tune (but in the opposite directions) - meaning that they will be highly correlated, then the abovementioned technique won't work. Should this be the case, and suddenly this correlation (between USD and the general stock market) disappears, then the market which PMs will follow in the next several days following this "disconnection" is likely to be the market leading the metals in the coming weeks.

The phenomenon mentioned in the last paragraph is what we've seen very recently. USD Index and the general stock market move in tune, so it is impossible to tell which of them actually drives PMs. We will have more information once we see some kind of divergence, for instance if the U.S. Dollar tops and the general stock market continues to slide. Speaking of the former, let's take a look at the chart of the USD Index.

The situation is becoming more and more difficult each day, because the general stock market doesn't appear to have bottomed, which means that each day we are getting closer to the next downleg. On the other hand we didn't get the abovementioned confirmation so far, which means that it is not certain what actions should the long-term Precious Metals Investors take if/when the general stock market declines. If PMs are to follow the main stock indices, then it seems it would be a good idea to limit one's exposure to metals for a few months or so. On the other hand, if PMs prove to hold well despite weakness on the general stock market it will indicate that gold and silver are a strong buy at the moment.

Therefore, monitoring this correlation is one of the most important things that PM Investors need to focus on. Naturally, our Subscribers will be informed as soon as we spot any critical divergences that might indicate that one outcome is more probable than the other.

Moving on to the analysis of the general stock market, let's begin with the long-term chart.

There are no big changes on the long-term chart of the SPY ETF since we wrote about it last week. The values of the main stock indices are rising, but the volume doesn't confirm that direction - it declines, which suggests that this is just a consolidation within a bigger move lower. Either way, it seems that the general stock market will be stopped relatively soon, as it is relatively close to the strong resistance level (black declining line on the chart based on three key tops).

Summing up, gold, silver, and PM stocks are currently following the general stock market more closely than they follow the USD Index. This is a positive factor in the very-short-term, as it provides additional positive signals for short-term Speculators.

On the other hand, this factor is negative in the long run because the situation on the general stock market is still bearish from the long-term point of view. Therefore, if you already own physical gold/silver, and you want to add to your positions, you may want to wait for additional information. If you don't have any at this point, we would still suggest buying some (25% or so of what you would like to own.)

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife