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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Wealthbuilder Quarterly Stock Market Brief and McDonald's MLD Stock Pick

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Mar 16, 2010 - 07:01 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe American stock market is still working through a consolidation phase following the magnificent run up since March of last year. The Dow transports have presented us with a new Dow buy signal but so far the Industrials have unconfirmed. The Dow 30 needs to break the 10,700 range convincingly before I will advise student clients to re-enter the market through their virtual portfolios.


The reason for this is clear. There are a number of major issues playing on the market and accordingly risk is high. In particular persistent unemployment, rising inflation, anticipated year end interest rate hikes and the planned end of quantitative easing are all still being priced into the competitive mix. I want evidence that this risk has been adequately discounted. Once we start moving to higher highs on both the Dow 20 and the Dow 30 we know that this process is over. Until that occurs the markets will probably be range bound as they have been since October - December 2009. If the confirmation signal is mixed it may prove problematic for valuations.

In general the QQQQ’s, the ETF for the NASDAQ, have been doing particularly well with AAPL breaking to new all time highs. This movement augurs well for technology moving forward, provided of course that the overall market returns to its former bull trend.

The dollar continues to grow in strength but this has more to do with a weakening Euro than any powerful fundamental change in the American economy. In other words the issue is not who is the strongest but who is the least weak. As long as this is the case it will play havoc with Gold and Silver valuations and I continue to advise clients to avoid these metals in their virtual trading.

April is earnings season and I am looking forward with great relish to see how valuations in the market hold up. A lot will soon be told. How Wall Street reacts will give great insight on how to successfully play the rest of 2010.

Stock Pick
McDonald’s Corporation: MCD
Stock Fundamentals:
Dividend Yield: 3.5%
Financial Strength: A++
Return on Capital: 21%
Return on Shr. Equity: 30.5%
Earnings Growth: 10%

McDonald’s Corporation finished 2009 in superb fashion and is one of my favourite choices for students learning our pension strategy.

Robust comparable store sales, margin expansion, and favourable currency movements were behind much of the earnings per share advance.

The momentum will probably continue into much of 2010. Although the economic recovery is taking shape, consumers are still looking to save money, especially in the face of high unemployment. Consequently, McDonald’s value and convenience have enabled it increase market share.

The company’s short and long term prospects look solid, Its dividend is secure and financial strength impeccable.

(Pension Strategy)

Note: Since last March our pension portfolio mix is up a whopping 55%, including dividends, year on year. When one considers that this is our most conservative portfolio in terms of risk you soon realise the power of the recent stock market bull run. While we do not expect a similar performance this year from the pension portfolio over the last decade this strategy has proven itself to be ideal for those seeking an average 10-15% annual return with minimal risk.

By Christopher M. Quigley
B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley is 46 years of age and holds a Batchelor Degree in Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in San Francisco, California where he lived for 6 years. Now based in Dublin, Mr. Quigley actively trades utilising the principles set out in the modules above. This Wealthbuilder course has been developed over the last 9 years as a result of research, study, experience and successful application.

© 2010 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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