Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Coronavirus Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - Video - 28th Feb 20
Stock Market SPX to Rise back to 3350 - 28th Feb 20
Stock Performance in the Rising Coronavirus Fever - 28th Feb 20
Stock Market SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level - 28th Feb 20
Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger Stocks Bear Market 2020? - 28th Feb 20
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Triggering a Stocks Bear Market? - 27th Feb 20
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt - 27th Feb 20
Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin - 27th Feb 20
A Digital “Fedcoin” May Be Coming… And It Would Be Terrifying - 27th Feb 20
India's Nifty 50 Stocks: Does the Bad Jobs Outlook Spell Trouble for Stocks? - 27th Feb 20
How Crypto Currencies Are Helping Players Go Private - 27th Feb 20 -
Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast - 27th Feb 20
US Economy Permanently Addicted to Zero Interest Rates - 27th Feb 20
Has the Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 27th Feb 20
Advantages of Enrolling in a Retirement Plan - 27th Feb 20 - LS
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! - 26th Feb 20
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Sizzles as Europe Fiddles

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 14, 2010 - 05:35 PM GMT

By: John_Browne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMuch to the relief of jittery global markets, Greece's chronic debt problem has been papered over in a burst of European solidarity and apparent magnanimity. But this act of mercy may cost Germany its key position of financial dominance over the European Central Bank (ECB), which, in turn, could be detrimental to the long-term health of the euro. And so even though the euro stiffened once the immediate default fears abated, the price of gold was pushed to a new all-time high in euro terms (and a five-month high in dollar terms). [i]


The euro is now second only to the U.S. dollar in importance to world commerce. It is held by most central banks and corporations as a legitimate diversification hedge against the U.S. dollar. Therefore, its stability is of key importance to international currency markets and global stability.

Increasingly, it is apparent that the Greek problem is a potential game changer for the euro. So far, the various rescue packages have failed to convince investors that Greek bonds are dependable over the long term. Despite Greece's successful short-term debt auction on Tuesday, the premium demanded by investors to hold longer-dated Greek bonds continues to increase. Today, the yield spread between 10-year Greek and German government bonds widened to just a shade below 400 basis points. [ii]

It remains to be seen whether the latest support package offered by the EU - a three year loan of some €30 billion at around five percent interest [iii] - will suffice to cover the major economic, structural, and even attitudinal changes that are necessary. Furthermore, the potentially larger budgetary problems of many Eastern European countries and the remaining PIIGS (Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy) still remain to stalk the euro.

Still, there remains an even more significant threat to the euro. The eurozone finance ministers' 'soft' Greek rescue package, when combined with ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet's preparedness to continue accepting Greek bonds as collateral, spells the possible demise of the Germanic sound money policies underpinning the euro.

In the original formation of the euro, the Germans were prepared to give up their widely respected Deutsche Mark only if the euro would be run on a prudent and stable basis. In addition, to ensure compliance with their wishes, they demanded that the European Central Bank be based in Germany. As a sop for French support, they tolerated a plan that would eventually install a French ECB president (though the Germans made sure that ECB's first president, the Dutchman Wim Duisenberg, supported policies favored by Berlin.).

A Frenchman, Jean-Claude Trichet, did take over the ECB in 2003 and, much like our own Alan Greenspan, moved away from the hawkish tendencies that characterized his earlier reputation. Whereas Duisenberg was made famous for his "I hear you, but I don't listen" retort to angry politicians demanding rate cuts, Trichet has been much more willing to bow to pressure. This is causing great consternation in Germany. According to the German newspaper Handelsblatt, a former Bundesbank President remarked that, "Those who flirt with inflation, marry her. Trichet yesterday, kissed her."

In addition to raising eyebrows among German politicians, cracks in the sound money policy of the ECB should concern international investors as well. With the euro now threatened, where should international investors turn?

The budgetary and debt problems facing the U.S. government are so severe that, despite holding reserve currency status, America is now in danger of losing its triple-A credit rating. Last week, investors watched as U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner traveled to China, where he bowed, cap in hand, to beg the Chinese to revalue their currency. This raised the question as to whether the Chinese yuan is undervalued or the U.S. dollar is overvalued. Clearly, the U.S. dollar cannot be the safe haven for the world's savings.

The UK's pound sterling faces the same problems as the dollar. Stronger Western currencies, like the Swiss franc, are too small to absorb the bulk of funds fleeing the threatened euro without distorting their prices well beyond fair value. Gold seems to win by process of elimination.

Gold has hovered for some months in a tight range between $1,050 and $1,100 per ounce. It has held this level despite apparently low inflation and continued concerted efforts by central banks to de-monetize the metal. It seems many international investors, including the central banks of India, Russia and China, feel that, despite soothing words from politicians, all is not well with the paper world!

With a national debt now thirteen times larger than it was in 1980, [iv] investors in U.S. dollar assets are about to pay the inevitable price demanded by the profligate policies of Washington. Who can doubt that the spiking rates now on display in Greece will soon make an appearance on our shores?

As we have said before, we feel that the severe problems we face in America have yet to be fully realized. When they are, gold may be the surest footing in a world turned upside-down.

[i] 2010/04/09. "Gold priced in sterling hits all-time high". The Daily Telegraph.
[ii] 2010/04/14. "Euro, Greek Bonds Weaken Amid Fresh Greece Debt Nerves". Wall Street Journal.
[iii] 2010/04/14. "Bundestag Assent Needed Before Bailing Out Greece". The New York Times.
[iv] "Table: Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual". U.S. Treasury. Accessed: 2010/04/14.

For in-depth analysis of this and other investment topics, subscribe to The Global Investor, Peter Schiff's free online newsletter. Click here for more information.

By John Browne
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.  Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with."  A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.

John_Browne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules