Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19
The Unknown Tech Stock Transforming The Internet - 10th Sep 19
More Wall Street Propaganda - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation - 9th Sep 19
Stock Market Still Treading Water - 9th Sep 19
Buying Pullbacks in Silver & Gold - 9th Sep 19
Government Spending - The High Price of a "Free Lunch" - 9th Sep 19
Don't Worry About a Recession - 9th Sep 19
Large Drop in Stocks, Big Rally in Gold and Silver - 9th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No1 Tech Stock for 2019

Deflationary Forces and Historical Stock Market Corrections

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 05, 2010 - 05:47 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith a weak employment report on Friday, problems in Europe, and financial markets in a precarious technical condition, it is helpful to review similar historical stock market corrections. From a fundamental perspective, our present day concerns relate to deflationary forces in the global economy. Unlike the U.S., which can expand the supply of dollars relatively easily, printing euros is more difficult since each member of the European Union has its own tax and spending policies. Printing euros may help the people of Greece in some ways while diminishing the purchasing power of German savers.


The situation and possible longer-term outcomes in Europe lean toward the deflationary camp, which is not good for asset prices. Continued high unemployment in the U.S. is also contributing to deflationary forces. Diminished demand for goods and services leads to lower pricing power for those selling goods and services. Asset markets want and need positive inflation in the current environment; recent events have increased the probability of longer-term deflation. The question of the day is will these deflationary forces derail the current bull market? A review of current market internals vs. history may give us some insight.

As shown in the table below, corrections of similar magnitude to what we have seen thus far in 2010 have been followed by rallies of some significance.

The CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) was developed to help better discern between a correction within a bull market and the possible onset of a new bear market. CCM BMSI scores are shown for the historical periods and current period in the table above. Current CCM BMSI scores continue to correspond to corrections within the context of an ongoing bull market, rather than those associated with the onset of a new bear market. Further market deterioration could occur, but for now the condition of the market's internals remain bullish for the longer-term from a probability perspective.

As all the historical examples shown here illustrate, there is a difficult and fine line between selling to protect principal and selling just before a substantial rally. Like 2010, in 1989 the slope of the 200-day MA was positive.

In 1996, the slope of the 200-day MA was positive during the correction.

In 1997, the slope of the 200-day MA was positive during the correction.

In 1999, the slope of the 200-day MA was positive during the correction.

In 2000, the slope of the 200-day MA was positive during the initial correction off the bull market high, which allowed patient investors to reassess risk at higher levels.

In 2004, the slope of the 200-day MA was positive during the correction.

The Slope Of The 200-Day Can Be Significant

Our models and research align well with some interesting facts about when the market crosses below its 200-day moving average (which occured recently in May 2010). Conventional wisdom is that a break of the 200-day MA is bearish, but that is not the case if the slope of the 200-day moving average is positive (line is rising – as it is now in 2010). Some good stats were presented in an article posted on istockanalyst.com:

Ned Davis Research tells us that since 1946, there have been 64 cases in which the S&P 500 has crossed below its 200-day moving average when the MA was rising. But instead of the market going to heck in a hand basket as most investors would probably expect, two weeks later, the S&P has been higher by an average of +1.0%. The key point here is that this is actually BETTER than the buy-and-hold results for all 10-day periods of +0.5%. After crossing below a rising 200-day moving average, the S&P has been higher by +1.7%, which again is better than the +1.0% average for all the one-month periods since 1946. Even three months later, the market performs BETTER after it has crossed below its rising moving average as the S&P has posted gains of +3.6% versus the buy-and-hold returns of +2.2%.

While our long-term market models still remain bullish, it is prudent to have a detailed exit strategy in place should the markets deteriorate further. High debt levels in Europe and high unemployment in the U.S. are deflationary forces that need to be respected and closely monitored.

Additional comments can be found in Short Takes.

By Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2009 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

Chris Ciovacco Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules