Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

UK House Price Trends for 2010 According to the Halifax and Nationwide

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jun 08, 2010 - 01:38 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLabours debt fuelled economic election bounce is over. The new coalition government is gearing up for deep cuts in an attempt to bridge the huge £156 billion gap between government revenues and spending with already a down payment of £6.2 billion recently announced and at least another £24 billion to come on top of tax rises including raising VAT from 17.5% to 20% to raise at least another £25 billion in new taxes.


UK house prices are stalling after their 10% rally from the depths of the March bear market low as the Nationwide and Halifax start reporting diverging house price data, though both continuing with a bullish twinge.

The Nationwide reports :

The average UK house price rose 0.5% in May to £169,162, to stand 9.5% below the 2007 peak.

Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide said “Housing market conditions remain characterised by thin transaction volumes and a relative scarcity of properties for sale, despite a slow return of more sellers in recent months. The current supply-demand balance on the market is still consistent with relatively stable to modestly upward trending prices.”

Britians largest Mortgage provider The Halifax reports :

The Halifax house price index fell by 0.4% for May 2010, up rose 6.9% on an annual basis.

Martin Ellis, Halifax housing market economist: "The mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls so far this year is consistent with a slowing market and is in line with our view that house prices will be flat during 2010 as a whole."

These are the same financial institutions that were coming out with soft landing mantra during 2007 and 2008 that only succeeded in sleep walking home owners into the worst housing bear market of at least the past 30 years. Readers should always keep in their minds that the mortgage banks have a vested interest in stable to rising house prices as we witnessed with the Halifax which was forced into a shotgun wedding with Lloyds TSB to prevent bankruptcy and nationalisation. Though then the halifax bad debts cancer soon sought to eat Lloyds TSB's balance sheet alive which resulted in a series of tax payer bailouts and loan guarantees to prevent bankruptcy and nationalisation. Therefore house prices trend projections from the Nationwide, Halifax or any other mortgage bank have no real value.

As things stand the UK housing market has entered into the twilight zone of being tugged in two directions, one as a consequence of ZERO interest rates and Bank of England Quantitative Easing aka Money printing so as to INFLATE asset prices such as UK house prices, against which we have severe deficit reduction programme's soon to be implemented that at the very least look set to impact hard those regions of the UK that have very large public sector economies i.e. huge tracts of the North of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, with tax hikes to hit house prices nationally, especially as the Buy to Let Sector looks likely to take a hit as a consequence of the doubling of capital gains tax.

Therefore this series of NEW analysis over the next 6-8 weeks (June/July 2010) will seek to conclude towards a UK house price trend forecast for the next 2-3 years, that will seek to more than replicate the original 2 year bear market forecast of August 2007 made right at the very peak of the UK housing market (22 Aug 2007 - UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth ), and which builds up on the 100 page Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook of Jan 2010 (Free Download Now), which contained the following UK housing market analysis (graph updated):

UK Housing Bear Market Election Bounce

The UK housing market peaked in August 2007 and entered into a 2 year bear market exactly as forecast at the time (22 Aug 2007 - UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth ), analysis which projected towards a fall in UK house prices from August 2007 to August 2009 of between 15% and 25% that has subsequently came to pass as UK house prices bottomed in March 2009 after having fallen by 23% from the 2007 peak.

The UK housing bear market has experienced a strong bounce off of the March 2009 lows and now stands up approx 10% off of the low as a consequence of unprecedented measures as mentioned in this ebook, the Labour government has succeeded in temporarily bringing UK house price falls to a halt and triggering an Election Bounce.

The impact of the inflation mega-trend on the UK housing market will be for UK house price to be supported in nominal terms, however this it does NOT ignite the feel good factor that triggers housing market booms which only follow when house prices begin to significantly rise in REAL terms i.e. after inflation.

Whilst the current corrective bounce looks set continue into the middle of 2010 (allowing for a potential one month blip as a consequence of the bad January weather), this rally is still seen as a correction within a housing bear market that is expected to remain in a depression for many years, before house prices succumb to the effect of the inflation mega-trend and start to rise.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive weekly and in depth analysis in your email in box (only requirement a valid email address).

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20120.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

jonnySingapore
09 Jun 10, 15:51
forecasts & the stock market

Hi Nadeem. great writing. in regards to your stock forecast, so many indicators are pointing downwards now, is the later year rally you believe will come in danger?

My judgement on available material is indeed to sell and go away for now until moving averages start rising again.

thx

JS.


Nadeem_Walayat
09 Jun 10, 17:23
Stocks & forecasts

Stocks are cheap so I bought some on Tuesday.

I know the market looks ugly but it 'should' rally from here.

We remain in a large corrective trading range, as illustrated in the last indepth analysis of 14th May.


jonnySingapore
10 Jun 10, 10:11
forecasting techniques - monthly averages

yes, that's certainly in line with your forecasts Nadeem.

Would you comment on using 9 or 10 month averages as a safe indicator of where prices are at any point in time? i.e. current prices above an average is bullish, and below the average is bearish for an index?

Or do you have other indicators that you prefer.

Many thanks.

JS


Ajay
10 Jun 10, 13:13
30-yr bond yield

Hi Nadeem,

Wanted to draw your attention to something I observed today. Here is a link to the 30 yr treasury bond.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Would appreciate your comment as I see some similarity with 2008 here (perhaps greater).

Thanks,

Ajay


Nadeem_Walayat
10 Jun 10, 15:32
Technical Indicators

I always keep in the back of my mind that a coin toss is better than any single technical indicator, chart or market theory.

In my opinion the only way to analyse markets accurately is as a whole towards a final conclusion, therefore I rely on the conclusions more than any indicator such as MA's

Always remain skeptical of TA as it contains many singular red herrings.

P.S. the chart link does not resolve to us treasuries.


Ajay
10 Jun 10, 17:04
Technical Indicators

My bad. Don't know how to save this. Perhaps this will work now.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Not knowing much of TA, I can't comment on MAs. As you suggested, I am trying to look at the complete picture and I see this as a warning signal for equities. Would request you to review it again, if you get a chance.

If the link doesn't work again, the symbol is $USB.

Thanks,

Ajay


jake shoe
19 Jul 10, 16:47
selling italy buying UK

we are selling our two houses in italy, and want to go back to uk, but i think i should wait for the 50% decrease in price in the Uk, when will this be??

jake


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Jul 10, 18:08
uk house prices

50% decrease ?

When ?

Never.

and its worse, euro will probably continue to fall against sterling.


Phil
20 Jul 10, 18:27
selling italy buying UK

I wish you all the best during your VERY long wait for a 50% retracement in UK house prices.

Local and foreign Investors pick up the bargains each time we see a pullback because they know that property is always going to be a failrly solid long term play.

A decent rental property can be paid off in 25 years by the tennant and then returns a pension sized dividend each month for the remainder of the life of the investor. For that very reason only a small percent will ever sell off, even when the market does experience downward pressure. We may see 5-10% pullback for the remainder of 2010 but then we'll be back into Jan 2011 and the more fevered buying starts all over again.

Loses for some are buying op's for others in all markets.

Good luck.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules