Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.RED ALERT: Paris Terror Attacks - What to Expect Next - STRATFOR
2.Paris Terror Attacks, Death Pangs of a Dying Religion, and Impact on BrExit EU Referendum - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Paris Terror Attacks, Islamic State Attempting to Spark Civil War in France - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Three Shocking Charts That Prove Gold Price Rally Is Coming - Sean Brodrick
5.Stock Market Nifty-Fifty Becomes Fab-Five; Return of the 'Four Horseman' - Mike_Shedlock
6.Africa Population Explosion - Why Europe's Migrant Crisis is Going to Get A Lot Worse - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Mining Stocks May Be The Buy Of The Century - Jeff_Berwick
8.Grandmaster Putin Beats Uncle Sam at His Own Game - Mike_Whitney
9.BRICS? No, CRISIS - Raymond_Matison
10.UK Housing Market Affordability, House Prices Momentum and Trend Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Stock Market Top Valuations, at a Critical Juncture - 27th Nov 15
The Top Shopping Opportunity on Black Friday - 27th Nov 15
Economics Is About Scarcity, Property, and Relationships - 27th Nov 15
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme of 336k Net Migration, up 32% on 2014 - 27th Nov 15
Vauxhall Zafira B Fire Danger Recall - What to Do Video - 26th Nov 15
Triggers In US Dollar Collapse - 26th Nov 15
Apple Stock is a 10-Year Short - Bear Market Environment - 26th Nov 15
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hike - 26th Nov 15
George Osborne's War on Buy to Let Sector Trending Towards Doomsday - 26th Nov 15
Will Turkey Drag NATO into War With Russia in Syria? - 25th Nov 15
George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and Spending Review Full Text - 25th Nov 15
Will Fresh QE From ECB Boost Gold? - 25th Nov 15
Sheffield, Yorkshire and Humberside House Prices Forecast 2016-2018 - 25th Nov 15
Investors Watch Out For The Auto Industry… - 24th Nov 15
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% - 24th Nov 15
Stock Market Supports Are Being Broken - 24th Nov 15
Is Gold Price on the Verge of a Breakout? - 24th Nov 15
Fed’s Tarullo: U.S. Interest Rates Liftoff Should Wait for Signs of Inflation - 24th Nov 15
Silver Price, COT, US Dollar Updates and More - 24th Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices Analysis - Video - 23rd Nov 15
Crude Oil Swinging For The Fences - A 20 to 1 Option Play - 23rd Nov 15
US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation - 23rd Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices, Cheapest and Most Expensive Property Markets - 23rd Nov 15
Stock Market Rally Losing Momentum? - 23rd Nov 15
Will Gold Price Drop Below $1000 Soon? - 23rd Nov 15
Gold and Silver Sector Big Green Light and Low Risk Entry Setup... - 23rd Nov 15
Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices - 22nd Nov 15
Long Dollar Trade and Current Copper Price Below Cost of Production - 22nd Nov 15
UK Housing Market House Prices Affordability Crisis - Video - 21st Nov 15
The Fed Has Set the Stage for a Stock Market Crash - 21st Nov 15
Stock Market Primary V Wave Continues - 21st Nov 15
Gold And Silver - Value Of Knowing The Trend - 21st Nov 15
UK Footsie Bulls Set To Foot The Bill - 21st Nov 15
UK Housing Market Affordability, House Prices Momentum and Trend Forecast - 21st Nov 15
GDX Gold Miners’ Strong Q3 Results - 20th Nov 15
End of Schengen, Stock Market’s Technical Strength Grows - 20th Nov 15
Justice for All and The Curious Case of Zambia - 20th Nov 15
Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh, and the Resurrection of Old Europe - 20th Nov 15
Silver Prices and The Management of Perception - 20th Nov 15
Stock Market Nifty-Fifty Becomes Fab-Five; Return of the 'Four Horseman' - 20th Nov 15
Waiting for Goldot Again - 20th Nov 15
Michael Curran Goes Down-Market Shopping for Gold Stock Winners - 20th Nov 15
Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? - 19th Nov 15
SPX Appears to have Stopped its Rally - 19th Nov 15
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago - 19th Nov 15
Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C - 19th Nov 15
Has Deflation Been Ddefeated? - 19th Nov 15
Dow Jones Stock Market Index is Not Going to Crash - 19th Nov 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks

Stock Market On the Edge of Something Very Big, Crash?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jun 09, 2010 - 07:02 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. stocks lost their gains Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke voiced cautious optimism about the economy and the central bank's Beige Book also noted modest improvement.

"Everything is universally moving in the right direction, but we already knew that," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial of the Fed's June report, which noted improvement across all 12 districts.

Backlash at BP

The cost to protect BP Plc’s bonds against default soared to a record, more than nine times the level before one of its wells exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, as pressure on the company to suspend its dividend intensified.

Credit-default swaps on BP climbed 126.1 basis points to 386.9 basis points, according to CMA DataVision prices. More than 40 U.S. lawmakers called today for the London-based company to suspend its dividend and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told a Senate committee that “significant additional” safety requirements will be imposed on oil and gas companies drilling in the Gulf.

Why Did The U.S. Refuse International Help on The Gulf Oil Spill?

(ZeroHedge) Despite the vow by President Obama to keep the Gulf oil spill a top priority until the damage is cleaned up, 50 days after the BP rig exploded, a definitive date and meaningful solution is yet to be determined for the worst oil spill in the U.S. history.

So, you would think if someone is willing to handle the clean-up with equipment and technology not available in the U.S., and finishes the job in shorter time than the current estimate, the U.S. should jump on the offer. But it turned out to be quite the opposite.

The VIX tested intermediate-term Support.

-- All of the see-sawing in the VIX confirms the uptrend, even though it closed below short-term Trend Support at 34.19 today. The rally in stocks that completed today was at a smaller-degree than the rally which topped on May 12th. However, the VIX is giving this pause in the decline a higher-degree pullback. This is something that I have only observed for the first time, and suggests a very strong move is about to happen.

The CBOE Put-Call Ratio for equities ($CPCE) stayed neutral at .92 today. The pros have increased the $CPCI to 1.62 (more bearish) at the end of the day. The 10-day average is still 1.52. The NYSE Hi- Lo index closed down 32 points today to -108. The Hi-Lo index remains in bearish territory. Bullish territory starts at 95.

SPY retested short-term Resistance.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- The saying goes, “The markets always rally before a crash.” SPY is no different as it approaches the Head and Shoulders Neckline illustrated in the chart. This will be the third attempt to break 104 since the Flash Crash in May. It may just be the charm.

The probability of some event causing the market to gap through support overnight is very high. The H&S pattern sets up a target of 86.64, which is very close to the July 8 low of 85.77. My model suggests that we may see the markets meet their downside targets early next week.

QQQQ makes its lowest close since February.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- QQQQ closed lower as it traces out a complex Head & Shoulders pattern with a neckline roughly corresponding to the lower trendline of the Broadening Top formation. It appears that the very next target for QQQQ will be the lower trendline of the Broadening Top. However, I am looking for a “normal” wave 3 that may cut through the trendline on its way to 37-38.00 or lower. A likely target may be its (last) July low at 34.17.

XLF is prepared to plunge through its neckline.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- XLF now appears ready to drop below the Head & Shoulders neckline which gives us a target of 10.50 – 11.00. Head & Shoulders patterns work best at the beginning of a third wave, which describes the situation perfectly. The July, 2009 low was 10.73, which is the next support level.

The brief spike to 14.37 this morning before XLF turned back down played out as expected. We are now starting the most powerful move of the series today.

FXI appears ready to cross intermediate resistance.

Action: Buy/Long -- FXI rallied briefly above intermediate-term Trend Support at 39.40 today. It also had an upside breakout, even though it settled below Trend Support at the close. This is very bullish action and should be encouraging for those who have doubted the upside reversal until now.

$SSEC made a pretty substantial move today, as well, closing just below short-term Trend Resistance at 2590.

GLD stumbled, but maintained its uptrend.

Action: Maintain Longs, looking for an exit -- GLD stumbled after its breakout, but is still advancing in a “wave c” of a probable final zig-zag on its way to my model target of 126.00.

Yesterday’s breakout is still being tested, but a more convincing emergence above 122.24 should bring the buyers back. It is doubtful that the volume will increase appreciably, however, since it will be the retail buyers pushing up the final spike in price. GLD is already in nosebleed territory, so it may not be wise to stay too long. I will keep you posted if a reversal pattern emerges.

USO is completing a wave (ii).

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- Today’s rally in USO cleared up the wave pattern as it spiked toward intermediate-term Trend Resistance at 35.93. This has two implications. First, it may spike even higher as it completes a higher degree (to 35.93, perhaps?) second wave. Second, wave (iii) may take USO below 18.00 in wave (iii). There is no “alternate count” in USO at this time.

TLT has finished a pullback to short-term support.

Action: Maintain Longs, Look for an exit early next week. -- TLT found support at the shortterm Trend Support at 97.25. It appears that the next rally attempt should break above the prior highs and potentially target the 103.00 area. Once that target is reached, it may be advisable to start taking profits, unless you can watch the pattern like a hawk.

The U.S. is now one of the top 5 sovereign deriskers as CDS activities are picking up. This does not bode well for our bond market. The perceived risk of default is now rising.

UUP also finds support at the 13-day moving average.

Action: Buy/Long -- UUP pulled back to its short -term Trend Support at 25.44 instead of accelerating as I had expected. Nothing has changed, though. Wave iii of (iii) could go substantially higher, targeting somewhere above 28.00 in the move immediately before us.

Tomorrow the pivot window for UUP opens, so we may see fireworks starting in the next move higher.

Have a great evening!


Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2015 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History