Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Dow Jones, Crude Oil, Euro, Sterling and Gold Market Updates

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jun 13, 2010 - 08:47 PM GMT

By: Ajit_Singh

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen you're trading short term timeframes it's important to have a check of what the long term timeframes are doing as somewhere along the line they interlink with one another providing critical levels and trading triggers.

We've been catching the short term moves with ease last week using our short term timeframes and with our TMS Strategy which has been catching some nice position signal moves using longer term timeframes.


Today we'll look at the markets using daily/weekly charts to see what unbiased messages they are signalling. We start with the Dow Jones:

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Firstly we look at a Four Hour chart below just to signify the range that we've been in for nearly a month:

As you can see the market has been ranging whilst producing some volatile moves but no clear cut direction on the long term context of things has been decided by the Dow Jones.

Below you can see a daily chart:

The red intersecting channel shows where this range is actually coming from. The SIGNIFICANT thing to note is that the market is showing problems at the same area on both timeframes. Whilst the short term timeframe shows problems at current prices and upwards to 10330 the daily also shows problems in the same area with the red intersecting channel.

However the major recognition that needs to be absorbed is the 10400ish mark. The short term timeframe shows the area will produce problems as the channel widens. Look at the daily chart 'dark maroon line' which ALSO shows problems at the same area.

Both charts show differing timeframes, both have different unbiased technical analysis painted over them and uniquely both flag up the same area of concern using varying analysis.

So for the week ahead the 10400 mark may be too tall for the market to reach and if we do get to it then THIS is the mark that the market must KILL in order to see higher prices. If the market moves higher then this mark, then you have to admit the case for back to the highs or new highs for 2010 would come alive, just as we've been saying.

When the market hit 11200 we stuck our neck out at the time and labelled it as THE high in which we stated prices should start to decline from here. BUT many pundits, analysts, commentators and traders simply forget some basic elements. When tops and bottoms are formed prices RARELY, in fact hardly ever react straight from there to produce ultimate tops and bottoms. The tops and bottoms are formed; markets produce them as a 'formation'. When these formations take place for tops and bottoms markets can go back to the highs/lows or reach near to the highs/lows or simply take them but only as part of the formation. So whilst the prices of 11200 is a high for 2010 you cannot say it is the HIGH as at this moment in time it is fair to say the price action is in a formation phase of this long term top in the making which means back to the highs or near the highs or new marginal highs cannot be ruled out.

In conclusion though the market may face a tough time even reaching 10400ish let alone taking it out and in which case the range may last longer before we have a chance to spurt higher. All eyes on this area as failure leads to more range bound activity whilst conquering it could take us back to the highs.

Crude Oil

The chart above is a weekly chart, so it's a longer term chart and it gives some real clarity! Oil must hold at or near its recent lows in order to avoid a deeper decline to $60 or $55 something which will only happen if the decline in stock markets deepens! Holding at these levels or even if a quick v-shape move occurs to $60 we feel that in 2010 for the price of Oil you simply cannot avoid talking about $90-$100! Sounds like lofty prices but it is easily achievable this year! However it's not plain sailing at present as the lower blue line must be taken out in which TMS feels the price of Crude would head back to the 2010 highs and even higher.

Euro

Again for the Euro we've used a weekly chart as the short term direction has been clear recently. However the green line shows how we could be in a bottom making phase, in which a lower low could occur but the formation of bottom making, could still stick. It's important for the market to regain 126 as that would make the Euro overall bullish in which a sharp oversold move would take us back to the 135 level! The blue line has been hit frequently over the past three years and TMS feels we haven't seen the last of it yet.

Of course the green support line must hold otherwise vacuum opens up, in which we would travel straight to 113 and if that folds then for sure you'll see 1:1 to the dollar.

Sterling

Once again we've used another weekly chart for the Sterling to view the situation at play. The Sterling has been trying to make some progress over the last few weeks as it tries to edge somewhat higher from around 14250 but ironically on the weekly chart it appears as nothing more than a dot as the Sterling clearly trades in range bound movements.

The United Kingdom is in a dire state and the nation holds uncertainty over its actual size of the deficit and the measures that will be used to tackle it not to forget its effectiveness or lack of it. On top of that inflation figures are flawed as governments have been known to gloss them up to paint a differing picture from the actual high inflation that the public suffers from. On top of that, we have a housing market, which is currently witnessing a 'dead cat bounce' in which the projected collapse of it, has simply not taken motion YET! This would start to batter the Sterling even more in which 1:1 will likely be seen at some stage over the next few years.

Fundamentals however can get one more emotional then technical's and that is why we prefer to react to price. In which case the recent lows are holding and until they hold, 135 won't come into play. Folding them would take us to the level directly! Holding that, doesn't necessarily mean, that the Sterling is safe as the orange lines are giving two problems on the weekly chart. A declining orange line that must be overcome AND a range bound orange line that must be overcome! Until both cannot be conquered the longer term scenario will remain range bound to lower price action over the coming years.

Short term it's a different ball game all together, the dynamics are different, the targets are different, the expectations are different, as you're not bothered about long term price objectives in day to day trading although overall any trader should respect long term price action, and it's always good to recap long term action regularly as some critical levels interrelate within timeframes.

GOLD

Whilst analysts, traders and commentators across the globe are looking at long term projections for gold we thought we'd look at the short term scenario at play and for this insight we've used the four hour chart which is supreme at depicting short term movements in Gold.

First of all you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that Gold has a short term issue with 1250! For us at TMS it is plain and simple, if we get a four hour close above this mark then we would be very surprised, if momentum, doesn't carry the price to 1300 - direct move!

However it is also not hard to see why the recent attempt on 1250 failed as the purple line shows it's alignment with this level. The blue line provided very short term support but the green line is the short term four hour trend holder. If this line is taken out with a four hour close then we would feel gold would travel straight to 1200 and lower for a corrective phase OR a deepened pullback in which the euphoria would start to be questioned by the media but the contrarian would be ready to BUY BUY and BUY some more for the longer term activities.

I am Ajit Singh, the writer of this article who started work with the financial markets from a very young age of 17, even though it wasn't legal and WE are www.tradingmarketsignals.com - 'TMS'.

If you like what you read and would like to gain insight on position trading style signals on five major markets. Or perhaps you want to add clarity to your short term trading with our signals which are fired via email and soon possibly by a live chat room platform, then this would be the best time to join us with our annual membership offer that unfortunately expires on 14th June 2010, in line with the U.S. stock market close on Monday.

http://tradingmarketsignals.com/#/flash-crash-price/4540799314

Until next time,

By Ajit Singh

Trading Market Signals
...the hub of unbiased technical analysis!

PS. Do you want to ask us any questions? Email: info@tradingmarketsignals.com

© 2010 Copyright Ajit Singh - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules