Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Timing Correlation Against Currencies

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 14, 2010 - 03:12 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePop Quiz: what do you get when you combine a stock market completely overrun by computer programs with central bankers who believe currency debasement is a means to generate real wealth?

Answer: insane volatility in which the entire market follows various asset classes tick for tick.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane.

After the Federal Reserve announced its Quantitative Easing program in March 2009, the US stock market (as illustrated by the S&P 500) began to trade in an absurd correlation to the US dollar.

Of course, stocks and the US Dollar had maintained something of an inverse correlation for years (meaning one fell when the other rose). I use the word “absurd” for the relationship between the two assets in 2009 because for much of that year the correlation was -0.98 (see below).

Let’s be blunt: correlations of this perfection ARE NOT supposed to happen in the financial world. To give you an idea of how ridiculous a -0.98 correlation is, consider that historically, Gold and the US Dollar, which are generally considered to have a perfect inverse relationship, have actually maintained a correlation of around -0.27.

A -0.98 correlation is only possible when you’ve got two things:

  1. A market dominated by computer trading programs that trade based on correlations
  2. A Central Banker intent on debasing a currency to reflate the stock market

Unfortunately for Bailout Ben Bernanke, his debasement efforts were thwarted when Europe began to implode courtesy of Greece’s debt issues. Consequently, the Euro collapsed forcing the US Dollar higher (the Euro accounts for more than 50% of the US Dollar index).

This blew up the US Dollar carry trade (traders were borrowing in US Dollars at 0% to invest in higher yielding assets, pocketing the difference in the yield spread). Which helps explain the collapse of the S&P 500 in late January 2010.

With the US Dollar now rallying, traders needed another “debasement-friendly” currency to borrow in. Not surprisingly, they turned to “Old Faithful,” the one currency that has been a carry-trading investor’s best friend for years: the Japanese Yen:

As traders moved into this trade, the momentum chasing computer programs followed suit. What followed was the market shifting away from its correlation to the US Dollar and into a near perfect correlation to the Euro/ Japanese Yen. Indeed, the perfection of the correlation is even more absurd when you take the chart down to 5-minute increments:

As you can see, the S&P 500 (blue) is now following the Euro (priced in Yen) tick-for-tick.

Will this relationship last forever? No. Like the US Dollar/ S&P 500 correlation of 2009, at some point this will blow-up, most likely when the Euro finally puts in a serious dead-cat bounce.

However, in the meantime this is a market timing indicator that is darn near flawless. Day traders take note, this is the correlation the computers are favoring. Use it while it lasts.

Good Investing!

Graham Summers

PS. If you’re worried about the future of the stock market, I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report detailing SEVERAL investments that could shelter your portfolio from any future collapse. Pick up your FREE copy of The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit, today at:

Graham Summers: Graham is Senior Market Strategist at OmniSans Research. He is co-editor of Gain, Pains, and Capital, OmniSans Research’s FREE daily e-letter covering the equity, commodity, currency, and real estate markets. 

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2010 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules