Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review - Rambus_Chartology
3.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Ebola Terror Threat Suicide Bio-Weapons Threatens Multiple 9/11's, Global Plague - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer" - Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
6.Gold And Silver Still No End In Sight - Michael_Noonan
7.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Gold Bug is Set to Bite Back - EWI
9.How Alibaba Could Capitalize on the EBay-PayPal Split - Frank_Holmes
10.The Consequences of the Economic Peace - John_Mauldin
Last 5 days
How Will We Know That the Gold & Silver Price Bottom Is In? - 21st Oct 14
Is Gold as Dead as Florida Hurricanes? - 21st Oct 14
First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45% - 21st Oct 14
The Similarities Between Germany and China - 21st Oct 14
The REAL Reason Why the Stock Market Turned Down - 21st Oct 14
Petrobras is a 'Scheme, Not a Stock' - 21st Oct 14
Stocks Bear Market Indicator Is Off the Mark - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Ideal Turning Point is at Hand - 20th Oct 14
Investors Quit Complaining, The Environment is Perfect Right Now - 20th Oct 14
Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices - 20th Oct 14
Gold vs Euro Risk Due To Possible Return of Italian Lira - Drachmas, Escudos, Pesetas and Punts? - 20th Oct 14
Stocks Rebounded Following Recent Sell-Off, But Will It Last? - 20th Oct 14
U.S. Responsible for West Africa Ebola Outbreak Says Liberian Scientist - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate B Wave has Started - 20th Oct 14
Gold Stocks Analysis – FNV, CG, NCM, SBM - 19th Oct 14
Stock Market Primary IV Wave Counter Trend Rally - 19th Oct 14
Gold And Silver - Financial World: House Of Cards Built On Sand - 18th Oct 14
Anatomy of a Stock Market Sell-Off - 18th Oct 14
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia - 18th Oct 14
Gold and Silver Extreme Shorting Peaks - 18th Oct 14
Bitcoin Price Fall to $350? - 18th Oct 14
Tesco Supermarket Crisis Worse To Come as Customers Vanish! - 18th Oct 14
Sheffield Roma Crisis School Place Application's Fraud Perfect Storm - 17th Oct 14
Stock Markets, Commodities and Indicators - 17th Oct 14
“Save Our Swiss Gold ” - Game Changer For Gold? - 17th Oct 14
How to Trade the Ebola Stock Market Sell-Off - 17th Oct 14
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 - 17th Oct 14
Either You're The Butcher or You're The Cattle - 17th Oct 14
Gold Benefits from Market Uncertainty - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Pullback Underway, Euro downside, Commodities - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Seven Year Cycle and A Correction Ahead? - 17th Oct 14
Three Ways to Play Uranium: Top Stock Picks - 17th Oct 14
America Flirts With Deflation - 17th Oct 14
Why the Fed Should Consider Delaying the End of QE - 16th Oct 14
Gold Prices Since 9-11 - 16th Oct 14
The Inflation Imputation, Dear Saver, May You RIP - 16th Oct 14
Flight To Safety - Gold Rises As Stocks, European Bonds Sink - 16th Oct 14
The March Of History And The End Of Nations - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Bear Markets Move Fast and Are Intensely Emotional - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Got Their Piece – Now It’s Our Turn - 16th Oct 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stocks Epic Bear Market

Gold Mining Stocks on Verge of Breaking Out!

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Jun 30, 2010 - 10:41 AM GMT

By: Claus_Vogt

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe long-term story for a gold and a gold mining stocks bull market is clear and easy to grasp: Dubious monetary policy and irresponsible fiscal policy with government debt rising all over the world are a surefire recipe for a surging demand in gold.

Toss in stagnant or even declining supply, and you have all the ingredients for much higher gold prices.


But …

I Don’t Like Being a Gold Bull

That’s because rising gold prices are a byproduct of lousy economic and political conditions.

Indeed, gold does not create wealth. Yet it can help conserve your capital in complicated times. Then when the economy finally hits bottom and a new long-term up trend emerges, you’ll be in the ideal position to take advantage of the turn around.

However, now is not the time to dream of the next long-term up swing. Instead, it’s the time to prepare for the next cyclical slump while the …

Recession Warning Is Getting Stronger

That’s the signal the Economic Research Institute’s leading economic indicator is sending us. Last week I drew your attention to this important indicator when it declined to minus 5.7 percent, a reading low enough to be interpreted as a recession warning.

Now … it’s down to minus 6.9 percent, strongly amplifying the message of a coming recession.

With this background the behavior of the bond markets starts to make some sense …

You see, longer-term government bonds would normally be considered extremely risky whenever there are inflationary implications of high and rising government debts, which would send interest rates soaring. And that is indeed our situation today.

But interest rates haven’t risen this year; instead they’ve been falling! Take a look in the chart below.

30 year T bond Chart

So why aren’t interest rates rising?

During times of uncertainty, short- to medium-term buying pressure for safe haven investments, including long-term Treasuries, can trump longer-term inflation fears. And that is exactly what has been going on during the past months, which tells me the economy is headed for a recession.

Gold Bugs Index On the Verge of a Breakout

At the same time Treasury yields have been dropping, gold and gold mining stocks have been rising. How is this possible?

Well,

  • Maybe the gold market is considering the short- to medium-term potential of a double dip recession.
  • Maybe the gold market is already reacting to the longer-term inflationary implications of the above mentioned monetary and fiscal policies.
  • Maybe the two markets — Treasury bonds and gold — are currently playing different time frames. And maybe this decoupling will continue.

At least one thing is crystal clear: On the chart below you can see the Gold Bugs Index is at a very important juncture. It has crept back up towards major technical resistance at the 500 to 520 area.

A breakout above this massive resistance would send a very strong bullish message for the gold market.

Gold Bugs Index Chart

Classical chart analysis tells us that the breakout scenario has a high probability. Price action since December 2009 looks like a triangle. And triangles are trend continuation formations.

In the bigger picture, the price movements since March 2007 looks like a huge cyclical correction ready to break out to new, all time highs.

Bellwether Newmont Mining Looks Ready for a Breakout, Too!

The bullish chart pattern of the Gold Bugs Index gets support from bellwether Newmont Mining (NEM). As you can see on following chart, it’s zooming upward.

Newmont Mining Chart

My suggestion: Keep a close eye on NEM. On Monday it hit a new high of $62.62. If this stock gets enough interest to establish itself above this level, it’ll probably signal the next strong up leg in the gold bull market.

Best wishes,

Claus

Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014