Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Recovery or Trap Door?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jul 10, 2010 - 07:02 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economy may cool as consumers spend less. (Bloomberg) Economists trimmed their U.S. growth forecasts through the middle of next year, though not enough to show the recovery is in danger of faltering.

Growth in the world’s largest economy will average 2.8 percent from the current quarter through the second quarter of 2011, according to the median estimate of 52 economists surveyed from July 1 to July 8, down 0.1 percentage point from last month.


While recent housing, manufacturing and employment figures suggested the U.S. economy is more vulnerable, the survey shows the recovery will survive the effects of Europe’s debt crisis and China’s efforts to slow growth. With few signs of inflation, the Federal Reserve will wait longer than previously anticipated before raising interest rates.

 (ZeroHedge) The latest consumer credit number continues the decline we have seen in recent months, plunging from $2424.4 billion in April to $2415.3 billion in May, a $9.1 billion decline, or 4.5% annualized, on consensus of $2.3 billion. Yet the biggest stunner was the April revision which was whacked from +$1 billion to a revised -$14.9 billion! In other words, there has been a $24 billion decline in consumer credit in the past two months.                                            Do you believe that shrinking consumer credit is compatible with a growing economy?

Unreal: Stocks go higher while equity funds see record outflows.
(ZeroHedge) Today's Lipper/AMG fund flow data confirmed the ICI data disclosed earlier: in the week ended July 7, in which stocks have rallied by who knows how many percent - nobody without Gallium Arsenide logic gates really keeps track of the market anymore, equities saw outflows of $11.6 billion. We'll repeat it because it bears repeating: stocks have surged as mutual funds have seen one of their biggest weekly outflows in 2010.
 

Recovery or trap door?

--The rally from last week’s decline below 1040 has brought back the bullish pronouncement that, “The worst is over.”  This could not be further from reality as the market enters the four worst months of the year, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac.   Another drop through 1010-1040 has a very high probability (over 90%) follow through decline to meet its target shown on the chart.  For more info, here is contact information.

Treasury bonds made a reversal this week.

-- The triangle pattern and the final thrust beyond it suggests that its mission is accomplished.  Last week I suggested that bondholders look for the exits.  This week’s action confirms the view.    

Traders may consider asking for a free copy of the new “Weekend Update.”

 Gold’s reversal appears serious.

--Last week’s commentary on the reversal pattern came to fruition.  I had suggested that that the Broadening Formation is a topping pattern and that caution should be observed.     

The crowd that “buys the dips” may need to adjust their behavior pattern as future rallies may fail in a potential new declining trend.

Nikkei had an oversold bounce.

--Japanese stocks rose, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its biggest weekly gain this year, after a drop in U.S. jobless claims stoked optimism in the global economy.

The Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent to 9,585.32 at the close of trading in Tokyo, reversing a 0.2 percent drop. The broader Topix index was little changed at 861.21, with about eight stocks advancing for every seven that declined. The Nikkei jumped 4.1 percent this week, the most since the week ended Dec. 4.

Has the Shanghai index found a bottom?

-- A rebound in Chinese stocks, the worst performers in Asia this year, may be imminent after reaching a near-term low, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. said, citing two technical indicators.   The gauge’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator and relative strength index are signaling a possible rebound in the index, according to the analysts.   “The daily MACD and RSI have been showing positive divergence signs since May, signaling an imminent change in the downtrend,” the analysts wrote.

Survey shows dollar bears in the majority.

-- The latest survey conducted by Credit Suisse's FX Sales team confirms our conclusion from reading yesterday's bearish report on the USD from Goldman, namely that the time to buy the dollar is here.

Cyclical studies show that the dollar is due for a major low this week.  The implications are that the uptrend may resume as early as next week.  This has major implications for the health of the equities market for the rest of the summer.

Pending Homes Sales Crash in a Record Fall to a Record Low as Tax Break Expires.

-- The Index of pending home sales fell a record 30% in May to a record-low reading of 77.6 — two huge pessimistic indicators of future prices nationwide. Yet the combination of two record negatives went barely reported when the stats were announced last week.  So here’s the news for you now, a week late, but new to the marketplace of ideas. Pending-home sales now stand below the worst numbers we have seen since the housing crash started in 2006. The rubber bands and duct tape are breaking apart.  

Gasoline prices are slipping, but no new lows yet.

The Energy Information Agency weekly report observes, “Dropping for the first time in three weeks, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline fell three cents to $2.73 per gallon. The national average was $0.11 higher than last year. Regionally, average prices slipped in all sections of the country.”

The heat wave spiked usage, but not prices of natural gas.

-U.S. Energy Information-. The Administration reports, “Temperatures exceeding 100 degrees along the East Coast provided a spurt of demand in the electric power sector, as power generators ramped up to meet air-conditioning needs. Overall consumption was an estimated 3.5 percent higher than last year during the comparable week, according to BENTEK Energy, LLC.”

EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes to an End!

The Dog Ate my Report Card

Both came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend & Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success is rapidly diminishing.

Whether an unimpressed and insufficiently loyal army general, a fleeing cabinet budget chief or G20 peers going the austerity route, all are non-confidence votes for the Obama administration’s present policies. A day after the courts slapped down President Obama’s six month gulf drilling moratorium, the markets were unpatriotically signaling a classic head and shoulders topping pattern. With an employment rebound still a non-starter, President Obama as expected was found to be asking for yet another $50B in unemployment extensions and state budget assistance to avoid teacher layoffs. However, the gig is up: the policy of Extend and Pretend has no time left on the shot clock nor for another round of unemployment benefit extensions. A congress that is now clearly frightened of what it sees looming in the fall midterm elections is running for cover on any further spending initiatives. The US electorate has been sending an unmistakable message in all elections nationwide.
 
The rats are cornered.

The stimulus and gimmicks initiated by a desperate political class prodded on by our Keynesian witch-doctors Summers and Geithner ran their course and at the end of that road was a massive pile of debt, chronic unemployment, a populace that doesn’t believe or trust anything the government says or does and a housing market set to resume its downward spiral.  So basically the forces of deflation have taken over once again. Banana Ben Bernanke knows it and he knows what he wants to do about it.  He wants to print so much money it would make your head spin.  He wants to drop nuclear bombs of QE2 all over this great land.  That is his answer to everything.  The man is 100% insane according to Einstein’s definition.  I quote: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

"Unless the plunge protection team comes in over the next couple of days, the markets are looking very dicey here."

A highly amusing exchange occurred earlier on CNBC when guest Damon Vickers of Nine Points Capital had an unexpected moment of truthiness and turned some heads when he said that "unless the plunge protection team comes in over the next couple of days, the markets are looking very dicey here." When a disgusted Joe Kernan asks if Vickers was making a joke about the PPT, the response is "absolutely not - it's common knowledge that the government steps in and does things to step on the gas and buy stock here and there."

Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

SC
11 Jul 10, 13:35
Contradictory

So you think treasuries can decline whilst equities also decline ? You are really contradicting what we know about human behaviour if you suggest that.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules