Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Nielson: The End Game is Either Hyperinflation or Debt Implosion – Got Gold?

Economics / Economic Theory Jul 31, 2010 - 03:31 PM GMT

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The collapse of the U.S. economy is a certainty - only the manner in which it will happen has yet to be determined. It is just a matter of time before the global derivatives bubble will produce the same result that has occurred to every other currency not backed by gold throughout history - those currencies, our ‘money’, will become worthless.”


Those were the alarming words of Jeff Nielson of BullionBullsCanada.com in a recent speech* which has been edited and reformatted below (with his permission) for the sake of brevity and clarity.

Derivatives: An Unregulated One Quadrillion Dollar Market

“Warren Buffett once described derivatives as ‘financial weapons of mass destruction’ - and for a very good reason. While U.S. ‘unfunded liabilities’ are larger than the entire global economy, the derivatives market is 20 times larger than the entire global economy – at an astonishing $1 quadrillion. Yes, you heard me correctly - $1 quadrillion! And get this - this derivative market is totally unregulated. It is totally lacking in transparency, meaning that all we know about this $1 quadrillion mountain of banker-paper is what the bankers tell us.”

Nielson pointed out that “During the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, the Wall Street banks required $10 trillion in loans, hand outs and guarantees just to temporarily prevent their bankruptcy – more than all other bail-outs for all the rest of the world, for all of history, combined - and the entire crisis was based upon settling the derivatives positions of just one Wall Street investment bank, namely, Lehman Brothers - and even that $10 trillion was not enough to prevent the collapse of the U.S. financial sector.”

Furthermore, “The Wall Street banks also needed to have the U.S. accounting rules changed, so that they could assign their own ‘fantasy valuations’ to the debts/assets on their books, instead of the actual market value of those assets” said Nielson. “Without those most radical accounting changes in history the Wall Street banks would have been reporting their own bankruptcies rather than reporting their supposed ‘record’ profits.”

All Is NOT As It Seems

Nielson went on to say that “While the Wall Street banks brag about billions in supposed profits, there are still trillions of dollars of toxic assets being hidden off their balance sheets. We know there has been no increase in the real value of these ‘assets’ because, in just 2 years, the average amount of losses on their books has increased 5-fold relative to the value of their assets when the first bank failures occurred. Thus, if anything, these ‘toxic assets’ are even more worthless than they were when the collapse began.

Despite this huge mountain of unstable debt, Wall Street has actually increased the size of the derivatives bubble by 30% since the U.S. housing-bubble first burst. This caused Neil Barofsky, the U.S. ‘watch-dog’ assigned to oversee the TARP bail-out, to exclaim recently that the risk of collapse of the entire U.S. financial sector has increased not decreased saying:

“Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding road, but this time in a faster car.”

A Serious Dilemma Faces Investors

“As I see it,” said Nielson, “there is no solution for the U.S.’s economic problems. “With U.S. hyperinflation likely, but a deflationary collapse still possible, this not only creates a frightening scenario for us to face as individuals, but a serious dilemma for investors. Do we prepare for deflation, or hyperinflation – or, is it possible to prepare for both?” 

“Such a defensive investment philosophy is called wealth preservation and, in my opinion,’ said Nielson, “investors need precious metals components, i.e. ‘good money’, in their portfolios because they are ‘currencies’ that cannot be diluted through inflation or destroyed by imploding debt.”

Why the Need for ‘Good Money’?

Nielson pointed out that, while paper ‘money’ is both uniform and evenly divisible, it is neither rare nor precious and that the paper it is printed on has no intrinsic or aesthetic value compared to precious metals., reminding his audience that “In less than the 100 years that the Federal Reserve has existed, the U.S. dollar has lost approximately 97% of its purchasing power.”

It important to understand the above properties of ‘good money’ said Nielson “because, contrary to the economic propaganda from the mainstream media, the events of today are unparalleled in history.”  He then conveyed that:

- more countries are carrying debts than at any time in history

- the aggregate size of these debts are more than ten times greater than at any other time in history

- the whole world is off a “gold standard” for the first time in history – meaning there is nothing backing all these mountains of debt.

What Happens to Money During a Deflationary Implosion or a Hyperinflationary Scenario?

a) Hyperinflationary Scenario

“Gold and silver have always retained 100% of their value in past hyperinflationary environment while paper money has gone to zero” maintained Nielson.

b) Deflationary Scenario

Nielson believes the circumstances surrounding a potential deflationary collapse are unique this time round in that we are not talking about a “recession” or even a “depression” but, instead, about entire nations effectively going bankrupt and defaulting on their massive debts claiming that “with none of the world’s currencies backed by anything, paper “money” is now essentially nothing but the unsecured IOUs of the governments issuing those currencies. As such, he postulated that:

1. were such governments to default then billions (trillions?) of dollars of government bonds would have very “questionable” value – if not become totally worthless

2. were government bonds to become worthless, then the paper currencies of those governments would also become worthless

3. were government bonds to become worthless, then the government would have no ability to borrow any money to fund government spending – and would have no choice but to simply print unlimited amounts of un-backed paper money that would be nothing more than unsecured IOUs. Nielson conclude the aforementioned with the question: “What is the value of an IOU from a debtor who has already defaulted on his debts? The answer is: zero.”

Summary

Nielson explained that “Where a deflationary implosion differs from hyperinflation is that in such an implosion all asset-prices become severely depressed and most people are more likely to move to cash because of its supposed buying power. Eventually, however, in either scenario, paper currencies would go to zero.”

Conclusion

He concluded his remarks with the following advice: “You need to hold ‘good money’ and the ultimate ‘stores of value’ -  the only “good money” -  is gold and silver  and thus the best protection from the events that lie ahead.”

*Source:http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11900:debt-denial-and-default&catid=64:presentations&Itemid=141

Lorimer Wilson is Editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (F.A.S.T.) and www.MunKnee.com (Money, Monnee, Munknee!) and an economic analyst and financial writer. He is also a frequent contributor to this site and can be reached at editor@munknee.com."

© 2010 Copyright Lorimer Wilson- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Lorimer Wilson Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in