Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why All the Double Dip Recession Talk Is Pure B.S. …

Economics / Great Depression II Aug 09, 2010 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: Larry_Edelson

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf the recent slew of bad economic news coming out of the U.S. hasn’t convinced you that the economy stinks, then it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Because …

All the recent talk about a double-dip recession is nothing more than pure B.S.


Why? Because the U.S. economy …

A. Never emerged from a recession. Period.

Quite to the contrary, in reality …

B. The economy is already in a depression.

The problem is that no one wants to admit it. Certainly not in Washington. Not on Wall Street either. And, unfortunately, not even on Main Street.

But the fact of the matter is that in real terms, the U.S. economy has already contracted more than it did during the Great Depression.

I’ll prove it to you in a minute. But before I do, here are a few simple facts that also show you that the economy is either rivaling the depths of the 1930s, or is already in worse shape …

First, the true unemployment rate in this country is at least 22%. Not the 9.5% mythical figure Washington is reporting.

You see, Washington plays with the unemployment number. The figure they report every month is what they call the “official” unemployment rate. But it includes only those ages 16 or older who are not currently employed, but are able and available to work, and “actively seeking work.”

The problem: Washington conveniently leaves out people who are working part-time, people whose hours have been dramatically cut, and “discouraged” workers — those who are ready, willing and able to work — but have essentially given up looking for a job because they can’t find one.

Add these workers into the mix and you have an unemployment rate of 22.7% — more than double the so-called official number and almost as bad as the Great Depression of the 1930s.

And that’s just a nationwide average. In places like Detroit, Los Angeles, Allentown, Pa. and other urban areas, the real unemployment rate is as high as 40%, far worse than during the Great Depression.

If you include part-time and 'discouraged' workers, the actual national unemployment rate is 22.7% — almost as bad as the Great Depression.
If you include part-time and “discouraged” workers, the actual national unemployment rate is 22.7% — almost as bad as the Great Depression.

Second, from its 1925 peak, the median home price in the U.S. fell 12.57% into a bottom in 1932. Compare that to the 31% decline since the property peak in 2007.

Third, in 1929, total U.S. debt as a percent of GDP stood at roughly 290%. Today, it’s approaching 380%, and growing.

Put another way, it now takes $3.80 to produce $1 of GDP, compared to $2.90 during the Great Depression. I don’t know about you, but to me, that’s not real economic growth. It’s debt-riddled growth.

Moreover, when debt is growing so rapidly, there is simply no way the economy can produce the same amount of unencumbered goods and services than it did just a decade ago.

Fourth, U.S. high-yield corporate bond default rates last year hit their highest level since the Great Depression. And although they’ve come down a bit since then, there’s no doubt in my mind that corporate bond default rates are going to surge dramatically higher in the months ahead.

Fifth, total corporate and personal bankruptcy filings each year in the U.S. are now more than double the number of filings that occurred during the entire decade of the Great Depression.

Sure, bankruptcy laws have changed dramatically, making it far easier for individual and corporations to stave off creditors, with far less stigma. But is that a good thing? Or does it merely make things look better on the surface?

Either way, I repeat, we’re talking bankruptcy filings in a single year that are now more than double the filings that occurred in the entire Great Depression.

Now, for the real proof the economy is already in a Depression.

Back in the 1930s — and all the way through 1971 — the U.S. monetary system was on a gold standard. In 1933, for instance, $1 of GDP was equal to 1/35 of an ounce of gold.

In 1971, it was equal to about 1/42 of an ounce of gold. Then, Richard Nixon severed the link between the dollar and gold once and for all.

Don’t get me wrong. I do not advocate a gold standard. Never have, never will. But you simply must understand that just because the world is no longer functioning on a gold standard — doesn’t mean you cannot — or should not measure values in terms of gold.

As a matter of fact, you should. Measuring values in terms of an asset that represents the real value of money is the only real way to measure anything today. That’s even truer these days than ever before because paper currencies are so fickle and volatile in nature.

So now, let’s take a look at our country’s GDP in terms of the amount of gold it can buy.

And let’s do a simple comparison of 1932, the depths of the Great Depression … with 1971, just before the gold standard was abolished … the year 2000, the peak of the tech bubble … the year 2007, the real estate peak … and the latest GDP data.

Let’s see what’s really happening — in terms of how much gold the country’s GDP can purchase at those different points in time.

U.S. GDP In Terms Of Gold Purchasing Power

Here’s the summary, and a chart to go along with it …

arrow black Why All the Double Dip Talk Is Pure B.S. ... In 1932, our country’s GDP was worth 2.8 billion ounces of gold.

arrow black Why All the Double Dip Talk Is Pure B.S. ... In 1971, it was worth 27.74 billion ounces of gold. Put another way, our country’s GDP was almost ten times what it was in 1932.

arrow black Why All the Double Dip Talk Is Pure B.S. ... In 2000, our country’s GDP would purchase 34.54 billion ounces of gold.

arrow black Why All the Double Dip Talk Is Pure B.S. ... At year-end 2007, it was worth only 16.87 billion ounces of gold.

arrow black Why All the Double Dip Talk Is Pure B.S. ... As of March 31, 2010, our country’s GDP would purchase a mere 13.08 billion ounces of gold.

That’s a 22.47% decline in three years, since the peak of the housing bubble … and a whopping 62.13% decline since the end of the year 2000.

If that’s not a contraction, if that’s not a depression in real terms, I don’t know what is.

Of course, almost everyone will argue with me about the above analysis, their main objection being: I’m just viewing the economy in terms of gold, and that the contraction I speak of is merely because the price of gold has gone through the roof.

But I ask you the following questions, and I’ll let you answer them …

If gold isn’t real money, then what is? Paper money?

If so, then why does paper money — in almost all cases — buy you less than it did a couple of years ago … five years ago … ten years ago … fifty years ago?

Why does a barrel of oil cost nearly eight times more than it did just ten years ago, when in gold terms, the price of oil is the same?

For the economy’s current GDP to equal the same gold purchasing power it had in the year 2000 — 34.54 billion ounces of gold — the price of gold would have to plummet by more than 64.5%.

What are the chances that’s going to happen, when the Federal Reserve recently stated it would print as much as $5 trillion more in funny money to try and turn the economy around, by papering over the mess?

Folks, the U.S. economy is already in a depression. Deep in a depression. And as I said at the outset, almost no one realizes it.

Hopefully, you do. And hopefully, you’re taking the steps necessary to protect your wealth, so that it does not suffer the same devastating losses in real terms.

And further, so that you have a solid plan to profit from what almost no one else recognizes.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. Stay ahead of the curve with all my analysis, all of my recommendations, all of my flash alerts, strategies to protect and grow your money, and more! Become a Real Wealth Report member today by clicking here now.

It’s a mere $99, and is the best money you will ever spend for your investments. I guarantee it!

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in