Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Powering Ahead With Significant Momentum

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 08, 2010 - 03:19 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe market continues to power ahead with significant momentum. The Dow 30 Industrials, the Dow 20 Transports, the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 all are taking wind from a new quantitative easing policy, extended Bush tax breaks and positive earnings guidance. In addition Wall Street likes the idea that Democrats and Republicans must work together and compromise following the mid-term Congressional elections.


There is of course another factor influencing the positive trend. Given that current interest rates are near zero the only way bond rates can go is up. Rising rates will herald an end to the extended bond market rally we have witnessed over the past years. Smart hedge managers are reading the change and are moving ahead of more cautious mutual fund players. Should this capital re-allocation strategy become more pronounced, good times could finally arrive to beleaguered equity managers. Remember the stock market has ambled range bound since 2001. It is thus well in line for major price movement particularly when you factor in the inflation multiples which will eventually kick in to common price levels  as a result of quantitative easing dollars moving out from financial balance sheets and into the broader economy.

Since September our recommendations have done fabulously well.  Silver (SLV) is up 36%, Gold (GLD) has gained 10%  and our emerging markets ETF (EDC) has advanced 70%. Long may it last. I recommend sticking with these momentum trades until their 20 DMA’s are significantly broken on large volume. I do not believe we will see that soon. If anything I reckon those investors who are out of the market may find it difficult to find a safe entry point until the earnings season in early 2011. But traders should not be disheartened. The market eventually always retrenches. I am a great believer in waiting for a technically sound purchasing position. Patience will always outlast recklessness. In other words never chase “Mr. Market.” For those who are looking for an investment “target” that has not run too far from a conservative technical range I recommend consideration of USO, the oil investment vehicle. This ETF is significantly off its 2008 high of 103. It currently trades around 39.50. Should it break the 41 dollar level it will be a definite buy and could go all the way to 120, in 2011 and beyond, should the bull perception begin to consolidate.

On the value front there have been great results from our watch-list candidates. To name a few: Western Digital (WDC) is up 41%. Monsanto (MON) has risen 29%. The Blackstone Group (BX) has gained 40%. Southern Copper (SCCO), a company that actually pays a fantastic dividend, has increased 50% and Telefonica (TEF) has advanced 35%.

Observing  price action broadly across the market-place the message I am getting is that the worst is over, short term, and that the bull trend is growing in energy and power. Extended and compressed high stochastics are a feature of bull markets and that is what we are experiencing. The final leg to the “Bull” stool would be for the bottom to be finally set for the Real Estate market. My property contacts in Florida tell me this may not happen too soon given the complexity of the crisis but the current “mixed” real estate story has a silver lining. The FED will not raise interest rates aggressively until bank balance sheets have stable “mark-to-market” property valuations. When that happens stock market advances will begin to be tempered by rising interest rate trends, but we are not there yet. Thus as long as monetary policy continues to be accommodative I see no reason why Wall Street will not enjoy a traditional “happy” festive season and a New Year that beckons “new hope” and higher prices. Thus the traders mantra will not be “buy low and sell high” but “buy high and sell higher.” The wall of worry has arrived. The easy money has been made.

ETF: USO. Weekly


ETF: GLD.  Weekly


ETF: SLV. Weekly


By Christopher M. Quigley
B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin and holds a Batchelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in 1989. in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last decade as a result of research, study, experience and successful application. This course marries Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and focuses on 3 specific approaches. Namely: Momentum, Value and Pension Strategies.

Mr. Quigley is now based in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2010 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules