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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks, Dollar, Gold and Crude Oil 2010 Year End Targets to Watch

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Nov 22, 2010 - 08:53 AM GMT

By: Larry_Edelson


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA couple of weeks ago I gave you my updated shorter-term market maps for the Dow Industrials, gold and oil.

Today — for the first time ever — I am going to release my critical longer-term year-end signals for the same markets that I want you to be aware of.

These signals are based on a proprietary trading model I developed in the early 1980s, and are a unique combination of cyclical and technical analysis. Each year, as we head into year-end, they are the most important indicators I watch.

The numbers I am about to reveal tell you what each market’s position is in terms of its annual (long term) momentum and trend — and they give you very important indications of what kind of market action to expect in 2011 for each.

They are extremely reliable guides to the future of each market.

So once you’ve finished reading this column, I urge you to print it out and keep it by your side as we head into the end of the year.

The figures are applicable only for the last day of trading in 2010, which is December 31. Nevertheless, they tend to act like magnets, driving price action going into the end of the year. And, it’s also important to know — as we approach year-end — where the markets stand in relation to these year-end signals.

You will simply be amazed at how accurate these signals can be … how they set the tone for each market going into next year … and how you can use them as a guide for your investing and trading for all of 2011.

Since this is the first time ever that I am releasing them, also note:

In the weeks ahead, I will often refer back to the figures I give you today. I will also refer to them throughout next year, to help you understand the markets.

I have also provided an indication of what I expect for the year-end closing of these markets, with a bold statement of what I foresee.

So let’s get started …

For the Dow Industrials, as we head into year end, watch …

DJIA Above 11,887.19

— Very possible: If the Dow closes above that level on the last trading day of the year, it will 100% confirm that the March 2009 low at 6,469 in the Dow was a major low — and that the Dow is in a new long-term bull market, headed to a new record high by late 2015, early 2016.

DJIA Between 10,607.96 – 11,887.19

— Also likely: If the Dow closes above this figure but below 11,887.19 on the last trading day of the year, it will still confirm that the March 2009 low at 6,469 in the Dow was a major low.

However, a Dow closing at year end between 10,607.96 and 11,887.19 will indicate that 2011 will be a very volatile year for the Dow Industrials, with swings occurring between 7,392 on the low side, worst case, to 13,338.23 on the high side. In other words, a near 6,000-point trading range!

DJIA Below 7,392.27

— Not likely: If the Dow Industrials were to crash now and close 2010 below this figure, it would be a signal that that March 2009 low will be broken, and that the Dow is back in a bear market. As noted, I rate this as a very low probability.

For gold, watch …

Gold Above $1,071.70

— Probable: As long as gold closes year-end at the $1,071.70 level or higher, gold’s long-term bull market is very much intact. New highs would be expected in 2011.

Gold Between $839.50 – $1,071.70

— Possible: A year-end closing in gold between $839.50 and $1,071.70 would turn gold’s long-term trend neutral, indicating 2011 would be a wide ranging affair, no new highs, and holding extreme technical support at $635.50.

Gold Below $699.30

— Not likely: A year-end closing in gold below $699.30 would end gold’s long-term bull market.

Now let’s look at crude oil …

Crude oil Above $99.37

— Possible: A year-end closing above $99.37 in crude oil would indicate new record highs near $200 by 2012.

Crude oil Between $68.05 – $99.37

— Probable: A year-end closing between $68.05 and $99.37 in crude oil would indicate the long-term bull market in oil is intact, but new highs would likely not be seen until late 2012/early 2013.

Crude Oil Below $68.05

Not likely: A year-end closing in crude oil below $68.05 would indicate that crude oil’s long-term bull market is over, and that oil would see a low back near $25 a barrel by 2012.

Now, the all-important U.S. dollar, based on the U.S. Dollar Index, symbol DX, traded in New York.

Dollar Index Below 75.36

— Very possible: Despite some short-term strength in the dollar recently, if the dollar starts to fall again and the Dollar Index closes below 75.36 at year end, the dollar would be in very bad shape heading into 2011. New record lows would be expected in early 2011, and very severe lows in 2012.

Dollar Index Between 75.36 – 96.35

— Likely: A wide range, indeed, but a closing in the Dollar Index between these levels would indicate that the dollar’s long-term bear market is indeed very much intact, and new lows would be seen in the dollar, sharply lower, by 2012.

Dollar Index Above 96.35

— Not likely: A rally in the dollar to above 96.35 by year-end would miraculously indicate that the U.S. dollar’s long-term bear market is over. I do NOT expect this, at all.

I repeat, keep the above year-end numbers by your side as we head into the end of 2010. I will be referring to them often, and will provide you with additional analysis and commentary. In short, how the above markets close out this year will be very important in setting the market tone for the action in 2011 and beyond!

Best wishes,


P.S. If you’re a Real Wealth Report member, naturally I monitor all these signals and more for you. And of course, you get all my recommendations. If you’re not a Real Wealth Report member, it’s simple to join. To find out how, click here now.

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


22 Nov 10, 21:28
Dow targets


have you forgotten what you wrote in August just as stocks were bottoming?

At a minimum, by November, we will see the Dow plunge to at least 9,000, with a high probability of falling to the 8,700 level.

So I am taking your current targets with a pinch of salt.

02 Dec 10, 22:16
Larry / Cramer


Larry you seem to be turning into a Cramer type

05 Dec 10, 13:48
Thanks Liam!

Liam you took the words right out of my mouth.

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