Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Bond and Silver Year-End Targets To Watch

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Nov 29, 2010 - 10:49 AM GMT

By: Larry_Edelson

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and weekend! But now I want to turn our attention back to the markets. Judging by the positive response to last Monday’s column, I want to give you more year-end signals to watch for key markets.

Remember, this is the first time ever that I’ve released such signals. They are based on a proprietary trading model I developed in the early 1980s, and are a unique combination of cyclical and technical analysis.


Each year, as we head into year-end, they are the most important indicators I watch. So you should be aware of them and watching them too!

They are extremely reliable guides to the future of each market. Just as I mentioned last week, I suggest you also print out this week’s column, and keep the printout by your side as we head into the end of the year.

Keep in mind, these figures are applicable only for the last day of trading in 2010, which is December 31. But they must be gauged now, and followed into the end of the year. So let’s get started …

For the S&P 500, as we head into year-end, watch …

S&P 500 Above 1277.50

— Very possible: If the S&P 500 manages to rally into year-end and close 2010 above 1277.50, it will 100% confirm that the March 2009 low in the S&P 500 was a major low — and that the S&P 500 would then be in a new long-term bull market, headed to a new record high by late 2015, early 2016. Naturally, there might still be a pullback in early 2011 if this signal were to be hit at year-end, but it would be a very BULLISH indication for the market.

S&P 500 Between 925.80 – 1277.50

— Probable: Technically, if the S&P 500 closes the year between these two figures, which I deem probable, this would set up a “neutral” momentum and trend indication for the index for 2011.

It would mean that the S&P 500 will experience extreme swings next year, occurring between 804.60 on the low side, worst case, to 1457.00 on the high side. In other words, a near 600-point trading range!

S&P 500 Below 925.80

— Not likely: But if the S&P 500 Index were to crash now and close 2010 below 925.80, it would be a signal that that the March 2009 low would be in danger of being broken, and that the S&P 500 is back in a bear market for 2011. As noted, I rate this as not likely.

For the very important U.S. 30-year bond, watch …

U.S. 30-year Bond Above 134.03125  

— Not likely: If the U.S. 30-year bond manages to stage a year-end rally and prices climb to above 134.03125 (and interest rates decline) it would mean that long-term interest rates are likely headed even lower next year.

I do not expect this to happen even though the Federal Reserve will be purchasing U.S. long bonds with printed money.

The number of foreign investors getting worried over the U.S. economy, budget deficits and more will likely be aggressive sellers of our long-term bonds, keeping downward pressure on bond prices (and conversely, upward pressure on the long-term U.S. interest rates).

U.S. 30-year Bond Between 116.9375 – 134.0125

— Probable: A year-end closing in the 30-year bond between 116.9375 and 134.0125 would turn the bond market’s long-term trend neutral, indicating 2011 would be a wide ranging affair for bonds, with wild swings in prices and interest rates.

Importantly, this type of year-end closing for bonds would also indicate that the bond market bubble has NOT burst, and will likely NOT burst until the following year, 2012.

U.S. 30-year Bond Below 116.9375

— Not likely: A year-end closing in bonds below this level would indicate that long-term interest rates have bottomed, and bond prices have indeed peaked.

Moreover, it would suggest that the bond market bubble will fully burst in 2011. You would not want to be anywhere near the bond market in 2011 when it collapses.

As you already know, I am expecting the bond bubble to burst. I also have been recommending that you stay away from the long bond market, except for hedged strategies.

I will maintain my view on the bond market even if we do not get the above mentioned outright bearish sell signal — as it’s merely a matter of time before bonds crash and all of my work suggests that long-term interest rates have bottomed.

Now let’s look at a market a lot of people are invested in, silver!

Silver Above $23.75

— Possible: A year-end closing above $23.75 in silver would confirm that silver is back in a long-term bull market, with much higher prices to come.

So far, silver is above that level. But, I am concerned that silver is very overbought — not to mention that it’s a very manipulated market. So I rate this type of bullish year-end closing as possible, but NOT probable. Instead …

Silver Between $15.58 – $23.75

— Probable: A year-end closing in silver between $15.58 an ounce and $23.75 would indicate silver is going to swing wildly in 2011, between extreme technical support at the $11 level, and the recent high near $29.

The bias however, would be to the downside, shaking out a lot of weak silver long positions. I will keep you fully posted here as silver would be very problematic for a lot of investors in 2011.

Silver Below $15.58

— Not likely: A year-end closing in silver below $15.58 would indicate that silver’s bull market is over, for now, and that silver could crash all the way back to below $9 an ounce before recovering.

I repeat, keep the above year-end numbers by your side as we head into the end of 2010. I will be referring to them often!

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. If you’re a Real Wealth Report member, naturally I monitor all these signals and more for you. And of course, you get all my recommendations. If you’re not a Real Wealth member, it’s simple to join. To find out how, click here now.

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

John
29 Nov 10, 19:54
what happened to Dow 8000

Larry, werent you saying DOW 8000's for Sept/Oct 2010?, well it did not get there, as it appears Harry S Dent's forcast of Dow 4000's by year end.

How can we beleive anything you say, especially when the above pretty well hedges its bet every way.


John
29 Nov 10, 20:17
Dow 8700 and then Dow 27-44,000

Sorry i stand corrected ! Larry this was your article on August 16, 2010. I seem to remember a certain Harry who was predicting Dow 100,000 a few years back.

16 August 2010, Larry wrote:

At a minimum, by November, we will see the Dow plunge to at least 9,000, with a high probability of falling to the 8,700 level.

But once you see the Dow Industrials below 9,000 — start preparing for another big rally in the markets, one that could last for years and eventually see the Dow Industrials more than triple by 2015, and soar to anywhere between 27,000 and 44,000.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules