Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? - 16th Feb 19
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent - 16th Feb 19
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money - 16th Feb 19
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next - 16th Feb 19
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks - 16th Feb 19
Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera Under SEA Water Test - 16th Feb 19
"Mi Amigo" Sheffield Bomber Crash Memorial Site Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 VR360 - 16th Feb 19
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run - 15th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders - 15th Feb 19
Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! - 15th Feb 19
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? - 15th Feb 19
Virgin Media's Increasingly Unreliable Broadband Service - 15th Feb 19
2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? - 15th Feb 19
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why - 15th Feb 19
Will Stock Market 2019 be like 1999? - 14th Feb 19
3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” - 14th Feb 19
Capitalism Isn’t Bad, It’s Just Broken - 14th Feb 19
How To Find High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Safe - 14th Feb 19
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past - 14th Feb 19
Marijuana Stocks Ready for Another Massive Rally? - 14th Feb 19
Wage Day Advance And Why There is No Shame About It - 14th Feb 19
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? - 13th Feb 19
Earth Overshoot Day Illustrates We are the Lemmings - 13th Feb 19
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks - 13th Feb 19
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? - 13th Feb 19
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move - 12th Feb 19
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors - 12th Feb 19
Socialist “Green New Deal” Points the Way to Hyperinflation - 12th Feb 19
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks - 12th Feb 19
Sheffield B17 US Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 Full Details - 12th Feb 19
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading - 12th Feb 19 -
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? - 11th Feb 19
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? - 11th Feb 19
EURO Crisis Set to Intensify: US Dollar Breakout Higher
Stock Market Correction Starting? - 10th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Gather Steam - 10th Feb 19
Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? - 9th Feb 19
Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update - 9th Feb 19
The Wealthy Should Prepare to Be Soaked - 8th Feb 19
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack - 8th Feb 19
Top Myths and Facts about ULIP Plans - 8th Feb 19
A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? - 8th Feb 19
Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle - 8th Feb 19
The Venezuela Myth Keeping Us From Transforming Our Economy - 8th Feb 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Real Secret for Successful Trading

Stock Market Quarterly Brief

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Dec 01, 2010 - 02:16 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy favourite indicator of market breath, the McClennan Summation Index, is finally beginning to get to a level where it is becoming interesting. A move into negative territory, though some ways to go, will herald the probability that stocks will soon begin providing price action that brings solid technical support. This is good news particularly for those who have been out of the market since the early September bull move. In my books patience is a major key to achieving above average investment returns. Those investors who relaxed and held off while the herd chased the trend should now begin to sharpen their attention. At the moment the Dow Transports (DJ-20) are showing more strength than the Dow Industrials (DJ-30).  However, Technology, Mid-Caps and Small Caps all remain strong despite pull-backs. This indicates that the March 2009 bull trend is still solidly in place for the moment.


American and European stock exchanges have plenty of information to digest. The Republican victory in the lower house in Washington more than likely means there will be no Quantitative Easing mark 3, not without a fight anyway. This has implications for FED interest rates going forward. Without easy money to soak up new loan paper the FED will have to compete for funds. This action will force rates up. Bond holders beware.

Europe has the potential to turn into a basket case. Brussels still has not brought in the permanent structural systems necessary to provide bond auction stability. The inexperienced comments by Angela Merkel regarding bondholders sharing future pain rocked the Euro to its foundations. Until the matter is resolved the experience of Greece and Ireland is more than likely going to be forced upon Portugal, Spain Belgium and Italy. Strange days indeed for the Euro project.  I have been saying for years that the Euro is not in totality a true currency but is in effect a sophisticated exchange rate mechanism of which the main beneficiaries are German exporters. Currently Berlin has the best of both worlds. It has access to European markets for its produce without having to worry about high exchange rates spoiling the party yet is does not really want to pay the full cost of creating a comprehensively sophisticated financial system. Much work remains to be done but how things play out will have major repercussions for the market. Currently in Germany Deutsche Bank is showing signs of major weakness and this is not good for the Euro area generally. Banco Santander, which until now was very strong, is beginning to break to the downside.

For those of us living in Ireland the events of the last two weeks have been humiliating. A team from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the ECB (European Central Bank) agreed to grant the Irish Financial System a 3 year bailout of 85 billion Euro. However, Ireland must first draw down its last independent lifeline of 19 billion Euro that remains in its Sovereign Wealth Fund. Once these funds go the country will be left utterly broke, totally reliant on the grace of foreign credit. The rate on interest charged is an eye watering 5.8%. This rate is onerous and is an indication that potential default is being priced in. Thus the crisis in the Emerald Isle is far from over. The Parliament votes on its austerity budget December 7th. The eyes of the World will again be upon Dublin. If the vote fails, the IMF/ECB package will be put in some doubt, and all hell will break loose across European markets.

Chart: McClennan Summation Index

Chart: Deutsche Bank

Chart: Banco Santander


Stock Pick

Emerging Markets Exchange Traded Fund:         Ticker:           EDC
My ideal Emerging Market exchange traded fund; “EDC” is suffering a slight pullback due to the Korean crisis and its potential effect on China. When it starts to consolidate,  MACD crossover and buying volume will begin to indicate the right time to jump back in. EDC is a wonderful momentum instrument to actively trade and for those who wish to micro focus their game plan I highly recommend they give this Direxion player some serious consideration. Indicators to use are Slow Stochastics, MACD, Volume and Market Breath along with our classic Bullish Candlestick Price Set-Up.

Chart EDC Direxion Daily Emerging Markets:

By Christopher M. Quigley
B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin and holds a Batchelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in 1989. in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last decade as a result of research, study, experience and successful application. This course marries Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and focuses on 3 specific approaches. Namely: Momentum, Value and Pension Strategies.

Mr. Quigley is now based in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2010 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules