Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Germany Pivoting East, Exit US Dollar, Enter Gold Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Flight MH17 – Kiev Flash Mob's Last False Flag? - Andrew_McKillop
4.Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold - The Million DOLLAR Question... - Rambus_Chartology
6.Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - Michael_Noonan
7.The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - Felicity Arbuthnot
9.Which Way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities - Gary_Dorsch
10.U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 - Lacy Hunt
Last 5 days
Gold Price and U.S. Dollar’s July Rally - 28th July 14
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery - 28th July 14
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box - 28th July 14
Mossad in Gaza, Ukraine and the Cult Of The All-Powerful Elite - 28th July 14
Elliott Wave Gold Price Projection Since 1970 - 28th July 14
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? - 28th July 14
The Mass Psychology Of Decline - 28th July 14
Will the US Destroy the World? - Don’t Expect to Live Much Longer - 28th July 14
GDM and GDXJ Gold Stocks In-depth Look - 28th July 14
Stock Market One FINAL High? - 28th July 14
What It Means - Paradigm Collapse And Culture Crisis - 27th July 14
Wall Street Shadow Banking: You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme: “Time to Reboot” - 27th July 14
6 Tips for Picking Winning Gold Mining Stocks - 27th July 14
Israel's War on Children, Exterminating the Palestinians Future - 27th July 14
Guilt By Insinuation - How American Propaganda Works - 26th July 14
Surprise Nuclear Attack On Russia To Liberate Ukraine - 26th July 14
Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings - 26th July 14
Derivatives Market Species Origins - Abuse, Props and Risks - 26th July 14
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis - 26th July 14
China’s Stock Market Finally Looks Like A Buy - 26th July 14
Ed Milliband Fears Israel Jewish Fundamentalist Gaza War Massacres Backlash - 26th July 14
The Big Energy = Power Battle Is Coming - 25th July 14
USrael - Zionists in Control of America's Goyim Brainwashed Second Coming Slaves - 25th July 14
More Weakness Ahead for Gold Miners - 25th July 14
Gold Price Strong Season Starts - 25th July 14
Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking - 25th July 14
Gold Lockdown Until Options Expiry - New Singapore Gold Contract Threatens Price Manipulation - 25th July 14
The Bond Markets, Black Swans, and the Tiny Spirit of Santo - 25th July 14
No Road Map For Avoiding The Future - 25th July 14
Israeli War Machine Concentrating Women and Children into UN Schools Before Killing Them - C4News - 25th July 14
Israeli Government Paying Jewish Fundamentalist Students to Post Facebook Gaza War Propaganda - 25th July 14
Why the Stock Market Is Heading For A Fall - This Time Is Not Different - 25th July 14
An Economic “Nuclear Strike” on Moscow, A “War of Degrees” - 25th July 14
BBC, Western Media Working for Israeli Agenda of Perpetual War to Steal Arab Land - 25th July 14
Ukraine: What To Do When Economic Growth Is Gone - 24th July 14
Stock Market Clear and Present Danger Zone - 24th July 14
The Five Elements to Creating a Something-for-Nothing Society - 24th July 14
Instability is the New Normal? - 24th July 14
Israel's Suicide Bombers Over Gaza - 24th July 14
EUR-AUD Heads Into The Danger Zone - 24th July 14
Tesco Supermarket Death Spiral Accelerates as Customers HATE the Mega Brand - 24th July 14
Ukraine MH17 Crisis - Best Remember Who Your Friends Are - 24th July 14
Three Reasons Why Gold Price and Gold Stocks Will Rise - 24th July 14
HUI Gold Bugs Fighting To Break Downtrend - 23rd July 14
What Putin Knows About Flight MH17 - 23rd July 14
Why Microsoft Will Continue to Rebound, Huge Upside Potential - 23rd July 14
Will Putin Survive? - 23rd July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Number of Discouraged American Workers Hit Record High: QE3 = A Matter of When

Economics / Employment Jan 09, 2011 - 08:32 AM GMT

By: Dian_L_Chu

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest U.S. Labor Department data indicated that non-farm payroll added 103,000 jobs in December, which is far short of expectation, but the unemployment rate somehow managed to fall sharply to 9.4% (from 9.8% in November) far exceeding expectation.


103k Jobs Not Enough To Drop Unemployment Rate

The current consensus is that the U.S. economy would need to create 150,000 to 175,000 new jobs each month in the next 5 years or so, at minimum, just to restore the 8+ million jobs wiped out by the Great Recession.

Since the nation added only 1.1 million jobs in total last year, or averaging 94,000 jobs a month, the 103,000 new jobs added, coupled with a 0.4% drop in unemployment rate in December, simply does not make much sense.

Totally Discouraged

Nevertheless, a closer look at data the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tells that the drop in unemployment had very little to do with newly created jobs. Instead, it was primarily due to 260,000 workers dropping out of the labor force. As a result, the labor force has shrunk by 246,000 from the pre-crisis 2007 level (The U.S. labor force average growth rate is supposed to be around 0.8% per year from 2000 to 2050, according to Joel Kotkin, a scholar on urban development.)

Furthermore, not only the number of discouraged workers over job prospects hit a record high (since 1994, the earliest year the data is available) of just over 1.3 million (Fig. 1)--more than the number of jobs added in 2010--but the labor participation rate also plunged to a 25-year low of 64.3% ....post-recession! (Fig. 2).

Most Disturbing – Long Term Unemployed

Most disturbingly, the average number of weeks people remain unemployed also has risen to 34.2 weeks in December vs. 33.9 weeks in November, with 6.4 million jobless people classified as long-term unemployed, i.e. without a job for 27+ weeks.

The All Inclusive Jobless Rate Could Be 11%+

All these suggest there is a large number of frustrated workers who left the labor pool but unaccounted for in the unemployment rate calculation. That means the all inclusive jobless rate could easily be 11% or more, instead of the 9.4% flashing in headlines today.

Needed - 300k Jobs Per Month

Overall, the latest employment report seems to reflect a painfully slow-recovering, but still confused labor market. Large corporations are hoarding cash reluctant to hire or invest fearing uncertainties ahead, while small business still strapped for cash and credit can’t afford to hire since business is still slow.

Most economists estimate that that in order to make a meaningful dent in the jobless situation while keeping up with the labor force growth rate, new job creation needs to be at around 300,000 a month going forward, which is a long way from where the economy is right now (Fig. 3).

Worse Before Better

Furthermore, since the long-term unemployment benefits have been renewed, they could bring more people back into the labor force leading to a rise in the unemployment rate. So, things may get worse before they get better, and that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is probably right when he said it could take “four to five years” before the unemployment rate is back to a more normal 5% or 6%.

Housing & Auto - Key To Jobs

On the other hand, the economy could get there a lot faster beating Bernanke's estimate if both housing and auto sectors could really fire on all cylinders, and if the Administration would really start pushing for more jobs-friendly policies and measures, as the presidential re-election is due in 2012.

QE3 - A Matter of When

Moreover, I think with this latest employment report, it looks like QE3 could be just a question of when, and there’s no way Fed would cut QE2 early as some speculated.

That, of course, will evolve into a total beast by itself later on. But we could always remain hopeful that the U.S. labor market and economy would be strong enough to tackle that equally, if not more, daunting challenge.

Disclosure: No Postions

Dian L. Chu, M.B.A., C.P.M. and Chartered Economist, is a market analyst and financial writer regularly contributing to Seeking Alpha, Zero Hedge, and other major investment websites. Ms. Chu has been syndicated to Reuters, USA Today, NPR, and BusinessWeek. She blogs at Economic Forecasts & Opinions.

© 2010 Copyright Dian L. Chu - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014