Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Trouble in Brazil or More Good Times Ahead?

Economics / Brazil Jan 20, 2011 - 07:14 AM GMT

By: Mike_Stathis

Economics

Today, the Brazil's central bank is likely to raise its key interest rate, the SELIC as discussed in the January newsletter. Analysts estimate a 50 basis point hike. If this occurs, it will place short-term rates at 11.25%. The global inflation trend is driving this decision, as food and energy costs have hit Brazilian consumers particularly hard over the past several months. 


On the other hand, raising rates threatens to create another inflationary force through the carry trade as foreign banks and other institutions flood even more capital into the nation to take advantage of these rates. The problem is that foreign capital has been responsible for artificially inflating the Real. As you can imagine, this has not hurt Brazil's very important export trade. 

Brazilian Real to the U.S. Dollar

While Brazilian officials have made several attempts to reduce the influx of foreign capital, thus far these efforts have not worked. One cannot expect to raise taxes for a couple of percentage points for foreign capital and reduce this influx when rates are over 11%. 

All of this also has implications for China, as Brazil's number one trading partner. If Brazilian exports become more expensive, it's only going to increase the cost of Chinese exports to the U.S. The result is that China will be forced to let the Yuan float more freely in order to cushion the effects of inflation. With a stronger Yuan, exports to the U.S. will be more costly, and this will hit the wallet of U.S. consumers.

China has been facing its own share of related problems. Since November, China has raised bank reserve requirements four times. As well, it's raised interest rates twice since October 2010.  As capital continues to flood into China, inflation is beginning to take a toll on consumers, with food, energy and transportation being hit particularly high. Newsletter subscribers will recall how I discussed how food costs make up a much larger percentage of the inflation index used in China.  

Based on these macroeconomic trends, I would not expect the recent gains in consumer spending to continue in coming months. As you can imagine, this will ultimately affect the U.S. stock market. Certainly I'm not talking about a market crash due to this situation alone. However, it adds just one more road bump for the market to continue its bullish run.  

Through the Federal Reserve's reckless monetary policy, global inflation continues to increase. Meanwhile, banks from advanced nations are helping to increase inflation in developing nations through their quest for easy profits via the carry trade. There can be no happy ending from all of this.

For now, it would appear that the Real will set new year-highs versus the dollar, with the Yuan not far behind. 

2

By Mike Stathis

www.avaresearch.com

Copyright © 2010. All Rights Reserved. Mike Stathis.

Mike Stathis is the Managing Principal of Apex Venture Advisors , a business and investment intelligence firm serving the needs of venture firms, corporations and hedge funds on a variety of projects. Mike's work in the private markets includes valuation analysis, deal structuring, and business strategy. In the public markets he has assisted hedge funds with investment strategy, valuation analysis, market forecasting, risk management, and distressed securities analysis. Prior to Apex Advisors, Mike worked at UBS and Bear Stearns, focusing on asset management and merchant banking.

The accuracy of his predictions and insights detailed in the 2006 release of America's Financial Apocalypse and Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble have positioned him as one of America's most insightful and creative financial minds. These books serve as proof that he remains well ahead of the curve, as he continues to position his clients with a unique competitive advantage. His first book, The Startup Company Bible for Entrepreneurs has become required reading for high-tech entrepreneurs, and is used in several business schools as a required text for completion of the MBA program.

READ THIS LEGAL NOTIFICATION IF YOU INTEND TO REPUBLISH ANY PORTION OF THIS MATERIAL

Market Oracle has received permission rights to publish this article. Any republications of this article or any others by AVA Investment Analytics must be approved by authorized staff at AVA Investment Analytics. Failure to do so could result in legal actions due to copyright infringement.

Our attorneys have determined that the so-called “Fair Use” exemption as it applies to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act does not permit use by websites that have ads or any other commercial application.

In addition, fair use does not imply articles can be republished or reproduced. The distinction between fair use and infringement may be unclear and not easily defined. There is no specific number of words, lines, or notes that may safely be taken without permission. Acknowledging the source of the copyrighted material does not substitute for obtaining permission. Please see this statement from the U.S. Copyright office for more information. http://www.copyright.gov/fls/fl102.html

Requests to the Publisher for permission or further information should be sent to info@apexva.com

Books Published

"America's Financial Apocalypse" (Condensed Version)  http://www.amazon.com/...

"Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble"  http://www.amazon.com/...

"The Startup Company Bible for Entrepreneurs"   http://www.amazon.com...

Disclaimer: All investment commentaries and recommendations herein have been presented for educational purposes, are generic and not meant to serve as individual investment advice, and should not be taken as such. Readers should consult their registered financial representative to determine the suitability of all investment strategies discussed. Without a consideration of each investor's financial profile. The investment strategies herein do not apply to 401(k), IRA or any other tax-deferred retirement accounts due to the limitations of these investment vehicles.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules