Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Want To Earn A Safe 5% In Fixed Income? Buy Preferred Stocks - 24th April 19
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  - 24th April 19
Silver’s Next Big Move - 24th April 19
How Can a College Student Invest Wisely? - 24th April 19
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached - 23rd April 19
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio - 23rd April 19
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets - 23rd April 19
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity - 23rd April 19
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

How to Build a "Stockless" Investment Portfolio

Portfolio / Investing 2011 May 19, 2011 - 06:20 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Portfolio

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: I've lectured on investment strategies the world over, but I recently got one of the most intriguing questions I've been asked in a long time at the Global Currency Expo in San Diego, California.

An attendee asked me: "Is it possible to achieve decent performance if I don't want to include stocks?"


In short, the answer is "yes" -- though I wouldn't recommend a "stockless" portfolio because of the tradeoffs involved.

Still, it is possible to achieve a "decent" performance without stocks.

Here's how you'd do it.

A successful allocation model for a stockless portfolio would look something like this:

•Bonds: 45%
•Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): 25%
•Commodities: 10%
•Gold: 10%
•Preferred Stocks: 10%*

*You could argue that these are actually stock investments and I would take your point. But for purposes of our discussion and our objectives of achieving stock-like returns, I think we need to include preferred stocks because of the high, fixed dividend they kick off that makes them more bond-like.

We'll take an in-depth look at the allocation model in a moment. But let's examine the negative points of a stockless portfolio first.

Stockless Portfolio Tradeoffs
There are negative aspects to owning a stockless portfolio.

To begin with, the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy right now is bullish for stocks, so by forgoing equities, you'd be missing out on some big potential gains. At the same time, you'd be exposing yourself to more volatility and greater risks. You'd also miss out on some hefty dividend payouts.

Here's what I mean.

•The Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy -There are obviously going to be wiggles along the way, but generally speaking, the Fed's bailout policies should continue to factor into higher earnings, higher cash stockpiles, and continued reinvestment. That, in turn, suggests stocks are still the place to be - at least until something changes inside the Beltway.
•Volatility - Investors who eliminate stocks and refocus their efforts on other asset classes are introducing additional risks to their portfolio. The reason for that is very simple: By taking stocks out of the picture and putting a greater emphasis on the remaining asset classes, investors are reducing the amount of diversity and balance necessary to maintain stability. That makes their portfolios a lot more volatile.
•Lack of Dividends - While avoiding stocks may make you feel better, there's a good chance you'll be left behind - especially if you cut out dividend producers. Let me give you an example. Dividends are likely to grow at an annualized rate of 10% to 12% over the next five years. That means the effective yield on a portfolio that presently yields 1.9% will see its yield grow to 3.4% in five years, according to Don Kilbride, who manages the $5.72 billion Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund (MUTF: VDIGX). If you're not along for the ride, you'll have to make up this money somewhere else. It's also one more roadblock you don't need in a low interest rate environment.
•Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Fire - In their rush to avoid risk by removing stocks from the equation, investors simply may be trading one set of risks for another. That is, bonds aren't necessarily a safer investment than stocks. Bond values will fall dramatically when interest rates begin to rise in earnest, and that actually may be a rougher ride than the corresponding rodeo we'll see in equities.
•You'll have to save a LOT more - By cutting stocks from your portfolio you'd be eliminating a powerful upside. This in turn means you'd have to dramatically increase your savings to make up the difference. In fact, a 32-year old earning $50,000 a year who wants a targeted income of $3,125 a month in retirement would have to increase their savings from 12% to 16% of their annual salary, according to Money Magazine's Walter Updegrave. That translates into an extra savings of $167 a month to make up for the lost value -and that's on top of the $500 a month already going to retirement accounts in his projections. Jumping from 12% to 25% would require an extra $542 a month.

Building a Stockless Portfolio
Now that you're aware of the risks, we can take a closer look at our stockless portfolio asset allocation model.

Bonds: 45%

When it comes to bonds, the key is choosing funds with durations of seven years or less. That will avoid most of the volatility expected to arise when rates start to go up and bond prices start to fall. (Bond prices and interest rates go in opposite directions, so when one is falling the other is rising.)

I suggest splitting your money between high-yield corporate bonds and intermediate- to short-term investment grade municipal holdings.

The former are less likely to bounce around than Treasury or mortgage bond alternatives even if rates rise. They also allow you to keep at least some exposure to the underlying companies that issue them, if only by proxy. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (MUTF: HYG) is a great way to get started here, and it's hard to beat the 7.84% yield.

As for the latter, fears of a meltdown in municipal bonds remain overblown. The historic default rate for investment grade munis from 1970-2009 is 0.06% within 10 years of issuance, according to Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO). That's not to say things won't heat up as rates rise and cash flow tightens further. But general obligation bonds backed by near-complete taxing power are probably going to do just fine, as opposed to specific project bonds like the monorail system Las Vegas tried to finance with high yield munis.

I think the PIMCO Municipal Income Fund (NYSE: PMF) is appealing because of the consistent returns it's demonstrated since 2003. Right now the fund yields 7.4%.

Gold: 10%

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, you want to own gold as a means of hedging the principal value of your bonds and your income stream. In a portfolio where bonds are even more important, like the stockless one we're considering today, this is especially crucial as we enter what could be a protracted rising rate environment. While there are all kinds of ways to own gold, most investors will find it easy to get started with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD).

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): 25%

Master limited partnerships may trade like stocks, but technically speaking they're a different vehicle and therefore qualify for our hypothetical stockless portfolio. Most investors are at least somewhat familiar with these investment vehicles because of the large number of resource-related MLPs. But you may not be aware of some other choices here, such as The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) and Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG).

The key is that MLPs typically pay regular quarterly distributions that can help boost your income, making up for the gains you have given up by moving away from stocks. However, make certain to talk with your tax professional before you purchase an MLP because they can also kick off unrelated business income (and losses). That may make this type of investment better suited for taxable accounts, rather than tax-advantaged alternatives like IRAs or 401ks.

Investors might also consider Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE: NKA). It was recently beaten down after an analyst downgrade, but I like the 6.7% yield and its turnaround prospects.

Commodities: 10%

Right now there's a lot of talk about demand for commodities slowing down. Don't believe a word of it.

Demand is accelerating, and when it comes to such basics as food and water, there are no replacements. For food-related commodities, try the MarketVectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO). And those wishing to get their hands on resources may want to consider the Pimco Commodity Real Return Fund (NYSE: PCRDX). Both make a nice inflation resistant hedge, too. Yield on the former is 0.58%, while yield on the latter is 8.45%.

Preferred Stocks: 10%

As I said earlier, you could argue these are actually stock investments, and I would take your point. But for purposes of our discussion and our objectives of achieving stock-like returns, I think we need to include preferred stocks because of the high, fixed dividend they kick off that makes them more bond-like. I don't think you can get any more plain vanilla than the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund (NYSE: PFF), which yields about 7.3% at the moment.

So, if you're determined to pursue a stockless portfolio, this should help get you started. But remember, abandoning equities will increase your risk and lower your portfolio's overall returns. So as far as investment strategies go, I'd advise you to stick with stocks - if only for the dividends.

[Editor's Note: There is a way for you to double your money in the next 12 months - and you don't have to hire a Swiss banker to do it.

All you need is the right blend of high-yielding investments - and the right team of financial experts.

And you can get both right here.

This amazing profit opportunity is the latest offer from the global investing gurus with our monthly affiliate, The Money Map Report.

With investors today facing as much market uncertainty as ever, the Money Map team is constantly hunting for the best investments to share with you. Those recommendations, along with our special report on how to double your money, can be yours. Click here to read more.]

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/19/...

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2011 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules