Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stock Market Wealth Builder Report

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 May 20, 2011 - 05:33 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe volatility which was predicted in the last quarterly brief continues apace with the markets continuing to climb a “wall of worry” as is typical.

On the basis of Dow Theory, the bull run is still in place with the Dow Transports indicating that new highs are anticipated.


Technology is going through a tricky phase. This market is patchy due to the fact that there are some specific stellar winners and many definite losers. The dynamics involved in tech product development, cloud computing, social networking fads and web marketing strategy are so rapid that “old” business models quickly become stressed and dated.  Momentum demands exceptional growth. So one must do ones research well before investing in this arena. Apple (APPL), Netflix (NFLX) and Baidu (BIDU) are all looking very strong with management well up on their game. As always we recommend that you invest only on supported pullbacks.

The big story at the moment of course is the collapse of commodity prices. This is good for the overall market in that oil and food price appreciation will hopefully be tamed somewhat. This will have a bearing on core inflation and the future ability of the FED to keep interest rates low. As long as this supportive policy is held in place the market should maintain its bullish stance. (An indication of a change in sentiment in the market will be indicated when the 20 DMA on the Advance -Decline line in the broad market averages starts collapsing below the 50 DMA and fails to recover).

Our favourite commodity instrument, the Silver Ultra ETF: AGQ, was up nearly 100% since March. Its break below the previous low of 318.44 on the 2nd. May indicated it was a sell.  Currently Silver is technically broken so it will be some time before we can be sure the worst is over. Thus I would recommend you save your profits and keep your powder dry until solid technical support is in evidence.

The social situation in Europe continues to spiral downward.  Here in Ireland economic conditions continue to deteriorate with little help being granted by Germany or France to the Irish government’s attempts to lighten its EU/IMF bailout conditions.
Greece cannot meet its rescue terms and is being given “more time” which is a default in any normal mans language. Of course it cannot be “officially” named as such given that this would kick in the credit default swap insurance militia and nobody wants to give them a free lunch, if at all possible. A recent Vanity Fair article opened the lid on the rampant corruption in Athens and it is hard to see how Greece was ever allowed to join the Euro when it was common knowledge that its taxation system was such a complete corrupt mess.

 Most interestingly the Madrid “sit down movement” is bringing a new dynamic into the Euro equation. Spanish youth have finally had enough. With 40% of under 30’s unemployed they want a change. They are educated, eager and ambitious and they do not wish to continue to live, with no income or future, in the homes of their aging parents. Should this movement adversely affect an already fragile Spanish banking complex it may bring Madrid one step closer to needing IMF assistance. That could be a potential Euro endgame.

 The one winner in all of this is Germany. It continues to benefit from the Euro arrangement in that it has access to a vast European market for its industrial produce yet benefits from a fixed Euro currency. However Berlin refuses to accept any responsibility for the “lite touch regulation” it allowed to develop at the European Central Bank. It would appear Germans are happy with representation without taxation. Under these circumstances it is hard to see how the Euro will survive over the next decade. Yes, on paper, the cracks can be glossed over and the can kicked down the road but at the end of the day Europe is not only an economy it is a society. Currently its social contract based on dignity, freedom, equality, solidarity, citizen’s rights and justice is crumbling and it would appear that Brussels, as of yet, does not “get it”. The original vision of the great men who founded the E.E.C. is being destroyed by short-sighted bankers, technocrats and bureaucrats. These mandarins are playing with fire. Monnet, Schumann and Gaspari would be ashamed of them.

Dow Transports: Weekly

Apple: Weekly

Netflix: Weekly

Baidu: Weekly

AGQ: Daily

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.

http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin and holds a Batchelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in 1989. in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last decade as a result of research, study, experience and successful application. This course marries Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and focuses on 3 specific approaches. Namely: Momentum, Value and Pension Strategies.

Mr. Quigley is now based in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2011 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules