Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Bernanke Secretly Gives away Sixteen Trillion Dollars

Politics / Credit Crisis Bailouts Jul 26, 2011 - 01:06 PM GMT

By: Richard_Mills

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe first ever GAO (Government Accountability Office) audit of the US Federal Reserve was recently carried out due to the Ron Paul/Alan Grayson Amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill passed in 2010. Jim DeMint, a Republican Senator, and Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator, while leading the charge for an audit in the Senate, watered down the original language of house bill (HR1207) so that a complete audit would not be carried out. Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and others, opposed the audit.


What the audit revealed was incredible: between December 2007 and June 2010, the Federal Reserve had secretly bailed out many of the world’s banks, corporations, and governments by giving them US$16,000,000,000,000.00 – that’s 16 TRILLION dollars.

The GDP of the United States is $14.12 trillion, the entire national debt of the United States government spanning its 200 plus year history is $14.5 trillion. The budget that is being debated in Congress and the Senate is $3.5 trillion.

In the past debt ceiling votes have passed the House and the Senate without question by the majority party (remember there’s an election next year so there’s a need for political grandstanding). When Republicans controlled the chambers they passed debt ceiling hikes with the Democrats in opposition. When the Democrats are in power they up the debt ceiling while the Republican oppose it.

Obama opposed raising the debt ceiling when George W. Bush was President. The debt ceiling is simply a limit of how much a government can borrow and owe regarding public debt. By increasing the debt ceiling, a President would be able to avoid spending cuts.

A default would only occur if the US did not make payments on its debt so not raising the debt ceiling will not result in default – a default can only occur if interest payments were not made.

As the audit of the Federal Reserve has just shown whether the debt ceiling hike passes or not is a moot point. The unelected Federal Reserve will, without Congressional authority, continue to create more money.

The majority of US debt is owned by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow on gold’s terms is telling everybody something important is happening:

In 2000 gold made its $260 per ounce low, in January 2000 the Dow was 10,900

10,900 / $260 per ounce = 41.9 ounces to buy the Dow

Today at 12,592  DJII and $1,600 gold it’s 7.87 oz to buy the Dow.

Investors are starting to realize that gold and silver are a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil. Gold and silvers prices have risen because of the abuse and mismanagement of our monetary and currency systems - throughout history, gold has always shone the brightest when trust breaks down, confidence falls and fear climbs.

 stockcharts.com

The Dow/Gold ratio has twice before gone through corrections resulting in a transfer of wealth from one asset class to another. 

In 1928 the ratio peaked at 14.5 and then dropped to 2.9 as the stock market crashed and the U.S. entered a deflationary depression.  In 1965 the Dow/Gold ratio peaked at 27.6, then started a long correction to 1.57 in 1980 as Volker aggressively raised interest rates and stopped inflation. 

As you can see on the above chart we began a third correction in 1999 when the Dow/gold ratio peaked at 41. 

It presently would be very hard to mount an argument against gold being clearly the winning major investment of the last decade.

Latest demand statistics from the World Gold Council:

Gold Demand and Supply – First quarter 2011

  • Global gold demand in the first quarter of 2011 totalled 981.3 tonnes, up 11% year-on-year from 881.0 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010.
  • The quarterly average gold price hit a new record of US$1,386.27/oz (as per the London PM Fix), its eighth consecutive year-on-year increase.
  • During the first quarter of the year, investment demand grew by 26% to 310.5 tonnes from 245.6 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010.
  • ETFs and similar products witnessed net outflows of 56 tonnes.
  • India and China, the two largest markets for gold jewellery, together accounted for 349.1 tonnes of gold jewellery demand or 63% of the total, a value of US$16bn. China’s jewellery demand reached a new quarterly record of 142.9 tonnes up 21% from 118.2 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010.
  • In Q1 2011, gold supply declined by 4% year-on-year to 872.2 tonnes from 912.1 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010. This was despite an increase in mine production of 44 tonnes year-on-year, a growth rate of 7% from year earlier levels, and negligible net producer de-hedging. The decline in total supply was due to recycled gold, which was down 6% on year-earlier levels to 347.5 tonnes from 369.3 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010 and a sharp increase in net purchasing by the official sector.
  • Central bank purchases jumped to 129 tonnes in the quarter, exceeding the combined total of net purchases during the first three quarters of 2010.

With the price of gold at US$1600 it’s definitely living up to its oft proven history of  acting as a safe haven in times of turmoil but after being the best performing major assets of the last decade, are the price of gold and silver going to continue higher?

The settlement of the U.S. debt impasse could see a sharp correction in  gold’s price - news of positive results could trigger a temporary price retreat.

Over a little longer term there exists reasonable, sound, and at least as far as I’m concerned, convincing arguments, that precious metals and their stocks are undervalued:

• Central banks are adding to their official gold holdings
• The European Union’s sovereign debt problems are worsening
• The Federal Reserve will continue to create money
• Expanding Chinese, Indian, and other Asian economies means growing wealth and rising inflation. An historic affinity to gold in the form of jewelry and as a saving and investment option means continued demand growth coming from the East
• Gold mining supply declining

Conclusion
Considering the seasonally strong period for gold and gold stocks is right around the corner:

  • Jewelry manufacturers step up fabrication demand ahead of Christmas gift giving
  • Indian dealers begin stocking up ahead of the autumn festivals and the Indian wedding season
  • Chinese lunar new year
  • Increased news flow from junior work programs
  • Resource and Investment conferences

They might be even more undervalued then we think.

History proves the greatest leverage to a rising gold price is gold mining stocks.

I think gold juniors are going to be the most rewarding, the most lucrative way to garner the huge rewards from the coming freight train rush to gold. Those golden tracks are being laid today using the world’s currencies as ballast - when your cash is trash your gold is shining.

Monetary and fiscal authorities around the world are setting us up for an inflationary cycle. This will be the ultimate driver of the gold bull market going forward

If not, maybe it should be.

By Richard (Rick) Mills

www.aheadoftheherd.com

rick@aheadoftheherd.com

If you're interested in learning more about specific lithium juniors and the junior resource market in general please come and visit us at www.aheadoftheherd.com. Membership is free, no credit card or personal information is asked for.

Copyright © 2011 Richard (Rick) Mills - All Rights Reserved

Legal Notice / Disclaimer: This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules