Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
Why It's Way Too Early to Count Out Putin - and Russia - 22nd Dec 14
Stock Market At Minor Top - 22nd Dec 14
UK Christmas Sales 2014 High Street Start Dates List - 22nd Dec 14
Ruble Takedown Exposes Cracks in Putin’s Defense - 20th Dec 14
Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion - 20th Dec 14
Stocks Bull Market Resumes - 20th Dec 14
Gold And Silver Nothing Is Ever As It Seems And No Respite For PMs - 20th Dec 14
What Are Technical Indicators Saying About the Stock Market? - 20th Dec 14
Here’s How You Can Still Make 27% With Apple Even if You Buy Now - 20th Dec 14
Gold Stocks to Shine in 2015 - 19th Dec 14
Why Alibaba Stock Shares Are a Screaming Buy - 19th Dec 14
China, Dollar, Japan, Europe Burning Questions for 2015 - 19th Dec 14
U.S. Economy is in a Sweet Spot! - 19th Dec 14
US Dollar and the Gold Fairy Tale - 19th Dec 14
Show Me The Money (Flow)! Tracking Money-Flow Through Value Shifts In Stock Markets - 19th Dec 14
The Commodities Market Is Not Dying, It’s Just Hibernating - 19th Dec 14
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War - 18th Dec 14
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC - 18th Dec 14
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 - 18th Dec 14
Outrage at Taliban Islamic Fundamentalists Massacre of 132 Pakistani School Children in the Name of God - 18th Dec 14
How Inflation Changes Retirement Benefit Choices - 17th Dec 14
The Real Reason It's Tough to Beat the Stock Market - 17th Dec 14
Russian Currency Crisis and Debt Defaults Could Create Contagion in West - 17th Dec 14
How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash - 17th Dec 14
Russia Crisis - If You Put Your Money in the Bank Will You Get it Back? - 17th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth - 17th Dec 14
Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex - 17th Dec 14
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates - 17th Dec 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

Financial Markets and the Descending Triangle of Doom

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Aug 20, 2011 - 01:28 PM GMT

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Dow has been trending lower since July 22, 2011. Other than a fabulous 600-point rally from 3PM to 4PM following the Fed meeting of August 9, 2011, the trend downward has been brutal and abrupt. There was also a 400-point rally two days later that was followed with two more rally days on falling volume. That may have been a warning sign. The Dow then turned lower oddly enough at just about the 38% Fibonacci retracement line of the descent. The Dow now sits at 10817. What will happen when the markets open on Monday?


Of course, no one knows for sure but there is a very interesting chart that might give us some insight. The chart below is a picture of the FXE (the euro) in gold and the USD (the dollar) in green over the past 8 years. Why should we pay such close attention to currency right now? Clearly over the last few years especially, the Dow has risen with a declining dollar and fallen with a strengthening dollar. The Dow is now lost in a current of inflation. If this relationship continues, the currency charts might be our best reference for equity trends. We must respect three messages from the chart.

One, the dollar and the euro have been undulating over the term. They grow apart. They close back together. Right now, the two lines are far apart. History would indicate the two lines must move back together. The euro must weaken and the dollar must strengthen.

Two, notice the point labelled ‘A’. The blue line is the intersection of the FXE and the USD. For both currencies to close back together and touch, the euro needs to lose about 10% and the dollar must gain about 10%. 

Three, notice the point labelled ‘B’. The euro looks to be in a bearish formation known as a descending triangle. This could be interpreted as a bullish pennant but pennants should only extend for a period of less than 8 weeks. This formation is now more than 3 months in duration (the chart is period weekly). Descending triangles are nasty bearish patterns. When the pattern is broken below the lower horizontal line, the down trend accelerates.

FXE in gold, USD in green - 8 years weekly ending 8/19/2011
Chart courtesy StockCharts.com

All three points taken together are strong evidence that the dollar and the euro lines are going to move back together. This should happen over the coming weeks. This is a near-term signal only as we should expect the two lines to come together and then spread apart again. Investors should be aware that a 10% appreciation in the dollar would not be a positive development for the Dow. We should also be aware that currency valuations are heavily guarded and manipulated by issuing authorities.

If the US dollar rallies, we should expect:

  1. Stocks to fall
  2. Oil and metals to fall
  3. US Treasuries to rise

We shall see if the impending doom of a descending triangle plays out.

Barry M. Ferguson, RFC
President, BMF Investments, Inc.
Primary Tel: 704.563.2960
Other Tel: 866.264.4980
Industry: Investment Advisory
barry@bmfinvest.com
www.bmfinvest.com
www.bmfinvest.blogspot.com

Barry M. Ferguson, RFC is President and founder of BMF Investments, Inc. - a fee-based Investment Advisor in Charlotte, NC. He manages several different portfolios that are designed to be market driven and actively managed. Barry shares his unique perspective through his irreverent and very popular newsletter, Barry’s Bulls, authored the book, Navigating the Mind Fields of Investing Money, lectures on investing, and contributes investment articles to various professional publications. He is a member of the International Association of Registered Financial Consultants, the International Speakers Network, and was presented with the prestigious Cato Award for Distinguished Journalism in the Field of Financial Services in 2009.

© 2011 Copyright BMF Investments, Inc. - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the writer and have been presented for educational purposes. They are not meant to serve as individual investment advice and should not be taken as such. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Readers should consult their registered financial representative to determine the suitability of any investment strategies undertaken or implemented.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014