Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Germany Pivoting East, Exit US Dollar, Enter Gold Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Flight MH17 – Kiev Flash Mob's Last False Flag? - Andrew_McKillop
4.Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold - The Million DOLLAR Question... - Rambus_Chartology
6.Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - Michael_Noonan
7.The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - Felicity Arbuthnot
9.Which Way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities - Gary_Dorsch
10.U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 - Lacy Hunt
Last 5 days
Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear Banking Operations - 1st Aug 14
Africa: New Land of Investor Opportunity? Pointing to the Positives - 1st Aug 14
Turning a Clinical Eye on Biotech Stocks with High Potential Investor Reward - 1st Aug 14
Gaza Death Cloud Hangs Over Sheffield Eid Festival 2014 at Millhouses Park - 1st Aug 14
Israels Final Solution of Turning Gaza Concentration Camp into a Grave Yard - 31st July 14
US Failure: Unintended Consequence - 31st July 14
Stock Market Breakdown! - 31st July 14
Echoes Of The Great War – Only An Echo In The Elite Mind - 31st July 14
This is Bad News for U.S. Economy and Stock Markets - 31st July 14
The Important Impact of This “Secret” Gold Agreement - 31st July 14
The Something For Nothing Society Death Spiral - 31st July 14
The Social Memory Dump, Shredding Society - 31st July 14
How Safe Are Unallocated Gold Bullion Accounts? - 31st July 14
USDJPY Big Bear Market - 31st July 14
No More School in Gaza Because All the Children are Dead Chant Israel's Jewish Fundementalists - 31st July 14
The Iron Dome Inside The Heads of Israel’s Leaders - 31st July 14
You Know a Politician or Talking Head is Clueless When….. - 31st July 14
Don't Get Married to Your Gold Stocks—It's a Performance-Based Relationship - 31st July 14
Stock Market Parabolic Collapse - Sowing the Seeds of the Next Depression - 30th July 14
How to Profit from the Russia Ukraine Conflict - 30th July 14
Greenspan: U.S. Economy Running Out of Buffer; Stock Market to See Significant Correction - 30th July 14
Rogue States And Loony Tunes - 30th July 14
Anne Elk’s Theory On Brontosauruses - 30th July 14
Our Totalitarian Future - Totalitarianism NOW! - 30th July 14
Stocks Bear Market Formation Revealed - 30th July 14
We Just Found “The Future” - 30th July 14
What the “Steak Bandit” Says About Asset Values - 30th July 14
Designer War By Default - Seven Types of Elite Madness - 30th July 14
Death of the U.S. Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really? - 29th July 14
We’re Ready to Profit in the Coming Gold Price Correction—Are You? - 29th July 14
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours - 29th July 14
Silver Prices – Megaphone Patterns - 29th July 14
Real U.S. Interest Rates - Fed Exit a Blue Pill? - 29th July 14
Why Israel Should NOT Exist, Just Like Any Other Rogue State - 29th July 14
Gold Still Looking Good - 29th July 14
Silver Price Set To Star - 29th July 14
Our Population Growth Totalitarian Future - 29th July 14
World War 1 Cause and Consequences - The Planned Destruction of Christendom - 29th July 14
Will Crashing Commodities Crash the Stock Market? - 29th July 14
Ukraine MH17 - Washington Thinks Americans Are Fools - 29th July 14
Stock Market Bubble Warning - 29th July 14
Gold Price and U.S. Dollar’s July Rally - 28th July 14
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery - 28th July 14
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box - 28th July 14
Mossad in Gaza, Ukraine and the Cult Of The All-Powerful Elite - 28th July 14
Elliott Wave Gold Price Projection Since 1970 - 28th July 14
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? - 28th July 14
The Mass Psychology Of Decline - 28th July 14
Will the US Destroy the World? - Don’t Expect to Live Much Longer - 28th July 14
GDM and GDXJ Gold Stocks In-depth Look - 28th July 14
Stock Market One FINAL High? - 28th July 14
What It Means - Paradigm Collapse And Culture Crisis - 27th July 14
Wall Street Shadow Banking: You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme: “Time to Reboot” - 27th July 14
6 Tips for Picking Winning Gold Mining Stocks - 27th July 14
Israel's War on Children, Exterminating the Palestinians Future - 27th July 14
Guilt By Insinuation - How American Propaganda Works - 26th July 14
Surprise Nuclear Attack On Russia To Liberate Ukraine - 26th July 14
Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings - 26th July 14
Derivatives Market Species Origins - Abuse, Props and Risks - 26th July 14
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis - 26th July 14
China’s Stock Market Finally Looks Like A Buy - 26th July 14
Ed Milliband Fears Israel Jewish Fundamentalist Gaza War Massacres Backlash - 26th July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

We’re in a Recession Right Now

Economics / Double Dip Recession Sep 29, 2011 - 12:00 PM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Economics

My posts today seem to have a Negative Nelly tone - I am looking very hard for some positive stories to offset what I'm posting. ;)

WSJ's Dealbook has an interview with one of the smartest men in the room - Doubeline's Jeffrey Gundlach.  Many would consider this guy the best bond investor on planet Earth, alough PIMCO's Bill Gross gets all the press.  His Total Return Fund is once again smacking its index year to date. 


Gundlach believes the U.S. is in recession right now - I'll wait for the ECRI to confirm, but the bigger picture is, no matter if 'official' GDP is -1% or +1%, that does not matter much for economic prospects.  This economy needs to be moving at 3%+ for quarters on end to truly have any serious impact on the lives of most Americans.  At best we're at muddle through speed, despite massive stimuli. More from Gundlach:

  • The country is already in a recession, according to bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach, who predicted “there’s going to be a big loss in Europe.”  The much-watched head of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital addressed a crowd of roughly 100 financiers and reporters at the New York Yacht Club this afternoon.
  • Gundlach reinforced his often dark views about the status of the U.S. economy and future for Europe. “We’re in a recession right now,” Gundlach said, as he reviewed a hefty deck of slides with dreary data. Statistics on the polarization of wealth in the U.S., dim headlines about sentiment in locales abroad and the European bond market were among the reasons Gundlach cited for his dour forecasts.
  • Echoing the sentiments of many money-managers, Gundlach said that the Eurozone is bound for problems. “I don’t know what is going to happen,” he said. “But I think there is going to be a big loss in Europe.” DoubleLine has no investments in Europe, he said.
  • He then flashed a chart of 10-year sovereign debt spreads for the so-called “PIIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and circled their recent spike in red. Next to the spike he wrote “These are crashes, why no understanding of that?” in red ink. Greece’s spreads showed signs of woe as far back as February 2010, he said.
  • As for what’s ahead in the United States, Gundlach pointed out that the rally in the municipal bond market was helped by many states not having a choice but to balance their budgets.  However, that may mean that “the man on the street thinks it’s a depression,” he says, as many local governments have slashed jobs, cut down hours for public resources and stalled projects.  He pointed to the closing of bathrooms near his home in Southern California as an example. “You can’t go to the beach and drink your lemonade because there’s no bathroom,” he says.
  • DoubleLine’s strategy has no exposure to Europe, Gundlach says, and is entirely denominated in dollars.
  • The bets have paid off so far. The DoubleLine Total Return Fund is up 8.76% year to date, according to Morningstar Inc., compared to a 2.52% increase in the Barclays Aggregate index.

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2011 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014