Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... - Clive_Maund
4.Stock Market Crash Apocalypse or Bull Market Severe Correction? - Nadeem_Walayat
5.TShipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? - Jeff_Berwick
6.Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Summers: Global Economy Can't Withstand Four 2016 Fed Hikes - Bloomberg
8.Gold And Silver: New World Order: Public Be Damned, Preferably Dead - Michael_Noonan
9.Rigged U.S. Ttreasury Bond Market Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. To Infinity - Jim_Willie_CB
10.Major Stocks Bear Market Awakening - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
UK Interest Rates, Economy Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - Video - 10th Feb 16
World Markets Are in Sync - 10th Feb 16
If You Miss Buying Gold – You Will Regret, it Later - 10th Feb 16
The Fed Doesn't have a Clue! - 10th Feb 16
How Far Can Gold Price Go? - 10th Feb 16
It's Stock Market Panic Time! - 9th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Picks for Patient Pickers - 9th Feb 16
Oil Price Collapse U.S. Recession Odds 2016 - 9th Feb 16
Preparing for Crisis - It's About Risk Mitigation and Capital Preservation - 9th Feb 16
Top Silver Mining CEO: Don't Laugh, We Could See Silver $100+ - 8th Feb 16
Gold, Investment Leadership Changes Permanent? - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market Panic Decline Begins... - 8th Feb 16
How to Save Money By Growing Your Own Homegrown Tomatoes Indoors From Seeds - 8th Feb 16
US Economy Slides One Step Further Towards A Recession - 8th Feb 16
Gold Bear Market Bottom : Mr. Bear has left the PM Sector for Greener Pastures - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market At Important Support - 8th Feb 16
David Cameron Humiliated in Poland Over Refusal to Stop Taking UK Benefits, BrExit or Super State? - 8th Feb 16
Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here - 7th Feb 16
Stock Market S&P, NAS Best, Most Reliable Answers Come From The Market And You - 7th Feb 16
Stocks Bear Market Continues - 7th Feb 16
Silver COT Paving Way for Sustained Upside Breakout Sharp Rally - 7th Feb 16
US Dollar Double Top, Gold Prospects Brightening Rapidly - 7th Feb 16
Gold And Silver - Is A Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed - 7th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Something has Changed - 6th Feb 16
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - 6th Feb 16
Gold Price, Mining Stocks Rocket Higher - 5th Feb 16
Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues - 5th Feb 16
Gold and Silver: Ripe for a Recovery! China May well Change the Game - 5th Feb 16
How Pension Plans are Responding to Financial Repression - 5th Feb 16
Senior Gold Producer Goldcorp Takes Large Stake in Nevada's Gold Standard Ventures - 5th Feb 16
Tips for Smart Oil and Natural Gas Investing 2016 - 5th Feb 16
Another Corporate Giant Is Leaving the U.S. – What This Means for You - 4th Feb 16
TPP is Economic Warfare, Trade Can Make Everyone Worse Off / Governments are Stupid - 4th Feb 16
Gold and Stock Markets Inflection Points Galore - 4th Feb 16
Putin Cries Dyadya (Uncle), Is Saudi Arabia Listening? - 4th Feb 16
Gold Price Golden Bottom? Video - 4th Feb 16
Look North for Value-Priced Growth in Healthcare Biotech Stocks - 4th Feb 16 - TLSReport
BrExit EU Referendum - Britain's FINAL Chance for Freedom From Emerging European Superstate - 4th Feb 16
HUI Now Confirming Gold Price Move Higher - 4th Feb 16
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2016 As Good As It Gets - 4th Feb 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Financial Crisis 2016

We’re in a Recession Right Now

Economics / Double Dip Recession Sep 29, 2011 - 12:00 PM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Economics

My posts today seem to have a Negative Nelly tone - I am looking very hard for some positive stories to offset what I'm posting. ;)

WSJ's Dealbook has an interview with one of the smartest men in the room - Doubeline's Jeffrey Gundlach.  Many would consider this guy the best bond investor on planet Earth, alough PIMCO's Bill Gross gets all the press.  His Total Return Fund is once again smacking its index year to date. 


Gundlach believes the U.S. is in recession right now - I'll wait for the ECRI to confirm, but the bigger picture is, no matter if 'official' GDP is -1% or +1%, that does not matter much for economic prospects.  This economy needs to be moving at 3%+ for quarters on end to truly have any serious impact on the lives of most Americans.  At best we're at muddle through speed, despite massive stimuli. More from Gundlach:

  • The country is already in a recession, according to bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach, who predicted “there’s going to be a big loss in Europe.”  The much-watched head of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital addressed a crowd of roughly 100 financiers and reporters at the New York Yacht Club this afternoon.
  • Gundlach reinforced his often dark views about the status of the U.S. economy and future for Europe. “We’re in a recession right now,” Gundlach said, as he reviewed a hefty deck of slides with dreary data. Statistics on the polarization of wealth in the U.S., dim headlines about sentiment in locales abroad and the European bond market were among the reasons Gundlach cited for his dour forecasts.
  • Echoing the sentiments of many money-managers, Gundlach said that the Eurozone is bound for problems. “I don’t know what is going to happen,” he said. “But I think there is going to be a big loss in Europe.” DoubleLine has no investments in Europe, he said.
  • He then flashed a chart of 10-year sovereign debt spreads for the so-called “PIIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and circled their recent spike in red. Next to the spike he wrote “These are crashes, why no understanding of that?” in red ink. Greece’s spreads showed signs of woe as far back as February 2010, he said.
  • As for what’s ahead in the United States, Gundlach pointed out that the rally in the municipal bond market was helped by many states not having a choice but to balance their budgets.  However, that may mean that “the man on the street thinks it’s a depression,” he says, as many local governments have slashed jobs, cut down hours for public resources and stalled projects.  He pointed to the closing of bathrooms near his home in Southern California as an example. “You can’t go to the beach and drink your lemonade because there’s no bathroom,” he says.
  • DoubleLine’s strategy has no exposure to Europe, Gundlach says, and is entirely denominated in dollars.
  • The bets have paid off so far. The DoubleLine Total Return Fund is up 8.76% year to date, according to Morningstar Inc., compared to a 2.52% increase in the Barclays Aggregate index.

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2011 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History