Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.1% in September, unchanged from August

Economics / Unemployment Oct 08, 2011 - 04:53 AM GMT

By: Asha_Bangalore

Economics

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 9.1% in September, unchanged from August. Cycle high jobless rate for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +103,000 jobs in September vs. +57,000 in August. Private sector jobs increased 137,000 after a gain of 42,000 in August. Addition of 99,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of July and August.


Private Sector Hourly Earnings: $23.12 in September vs. $23.08 in August; 1.9% y-o-y increase in September vs. 1.8% y-o-y gain in August.

Household Survey – The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1% in September. The jobless rate has not improved in the first-half of the year (see Chart 1).

The most worrisome aspect of data from the household survey is that a noticeable percentage of the improvement in employment in August-September period is part-time employment (see Chart 2). Therefore, it is entirely conceivable that part-time employment status can change to unemployed if economic conditions weaken.

Establishment Survey – Payroll employment rose 103,000 in September after an upwardly revised gain of 57,000 in August (previously reported as no change). The upward revisions of July and August resulted in 99,000 more new jobs. These headline numbers paint a more positive picture of the economy than other recent data pertaining to overall consumer spending and home sales. But, details cast a partial shadow on the September employment report. The increase in employment during September includes the return of 45,000 telecommunications workers in September after a strike in August. To account for this event, the average of August-September payroll employment is a better indicator of hiring, which works out to be only 80,000 jobs vs. a year-to-date average of 119,000 jobs.

   

Highlights of changes in payrolls during September 2011:

Construction: +26,000 vs. -7,000 in August
Manufacturing: -13,000 vs. -4,000 in August
Private sector service employment: +119,000 vs. +51,000 in August
Retail employment: +14,000 vs. -1,000 in August
Professional and business services: +48,000 vs. +38,000 in August
Temporary help: +19,400 vs. +20,300 in August
Financial activities: -8,000 vs. +5,000 in August
Health care: +43,800 vs. +32,500 in August
Government: -34,000 vs. -15,000 in August

Manufacturing employment has failed to advance in the August September months, while construction employment grew sharply in September (see Chart 4). Health care employment (+43,800) continues to lift payroll employment, temporary help added nearly 20,000 to the headline number, and government employment fell.

A loss of 5,000 postal service jobs and 35,000 local government jobs accounted for the weakness in hiring in the public sector. Local government employment has dropped 535,500 from the peak in September 2008 (see Chart 5).

The pickup in hourly earnings ($23.12 vs. $23.08 in August) is noteworthy because the decline in August had raised the odds of further weakening of the economy. The year-to-year increase (1.9%) remains contained and offers little support for the hawks on the FOMC.

Conclusion – As the title of today’s comment suggests, the headlines were a mild surprise given the string of disappointing recent economic reports. The positives – increase in payroll employment and upward revision of July and August estimates, total workweek was longer than in August, and hourly earnings moved up after a drop in August – are noteworthy. The biggest negative is that job gains remain significantly tepid. Part-time employment helped to keep the jobless rate steady and average gains in payrolls in the last two months fall short of the year-to-date average. Moreover, payroll employment in the current economic recovery ranks at the bottom when compared with prior post-war business cycles, excluding the pace of hiring seen after the 2001 recession (See Chart , which is an indexed chart where the level employment in the trough of each business cycle is set equal to 100 to enable easy comparisons. A reading of 104 denotes a 4.0% increase in hiring from the trough, while 98 would mean a 2.0% drop in employment from the trough). The Fed has bought time with Operation Twist but it may have to consider additional unconventional monetary policy support if the economy continues to advance below trend and as a result the unemployment rate starts moving up instead of declining.


Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Copyright © 2011 Asha Bangalore

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules