Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Compelling Case for Urgent Action in the Global Food System

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Oct 18, 2011 - 05:30 AM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Government Office of Science report on global food situation, The Future of Food and Farming (2011):Challenges and choices for global sustainability is likely to become the benchmark for such research, and will be quoted extensively in the years ahead. Sir John Beddington, Chief Scientific Advisor to HM Government, summarizes the situation well in the preface to this 200+ page report,

"The case for urgent action in the global food system is now compelling. We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over the next 20 to 40 years. The needs of a growing world population will need to be satisfied as critical resources such as water, energy and land become increasingly scarce."

When the last iPhone is placed in the Smithsonian, the world will still be hungry.

China - Meat Consumption Changes

Chart above was extracted from above-mentioned report, page 52, as it so well illustrates one of the important issues of coming decade, meat. Human beings like to consume meat. As their incomes grow, horizontal axis in chart, they like to consume more meat. In that chart is plotted the per capita consumption of meat versus income for five nations over the period 1961-2007. Meat consumption is especially important as more than one pound of grain is required to produce one pound of meat. Switching from eating grains to meats actually increases the global consumption of grains. Beef is not produced in a factory.

Group of plots in upper right is for U.S. Even though already high, per capita consumption continues to rise. Plots immediately below it are for the UK. Trailing behind it are plots for Brazil, where consumption has doubled in not too many years. Next in line to left is China. That meat consumption has been a growth sector in China is unarguable, and the good part is yet to come. If China ultimately matches the average consumption of the U.S., Chinese per capita meat consumption would rise by nearly 70%. That, note, is per capita. Total consumption is per capita times population. The answer to that math problem is a lot of wealth being transferred to Iowa to pay for hogs and corn to feed hogs. The Lexus will indeed become the state bird of Iowa.

US$ / CWT - Hogs in US$

Readily agreed is that pigs don't fly. However, pork is "flying" out the doors at packing plants. Chinese demand for pork is voracious as prosperity, rather than Keynesian induced stagnation, continues in that nation. China has been importing pork to hold down the rate of increase in food prices. In January, as China celebrates a new year, an all time record is likely to be set for Chinese pork consumption. And, we suspect the ducks better start looking over their shoulders. Well, if the above chart of pork prices is correct, can the following one be also correct?

Pork Pricing

While prices for most meats, and everything else from hay to peanuts, are up, chicken prices continue to languish. Over production has been a persistent problem. However, the recent spike down in prices may suggest that the much needed liquidation of flocks has advanced significantly. The scale on the price axis of that chart is suggested by the price move that has occurred in hogs. Could chickens be the next Agri-Food shock for consumers? Perhaps yes. Little doubt that the years ahead for poultry, and all other meat, producers should be far better than that of history. Researching Agri-Equities of meat producers may indeed be a timely exercise.

In that first chart the lowest set of plots across the bottom is for per capita meat consumption in India. Few nations consume less meat per capita than India. That situation is considered a cultural factor. Perhaps, or might it have something to do with centuries of most citizens of that nation existing by subsistence farming. That situation persists today. Indian has not had the "time" to wait for grain to be converted to animal tissue. They needed to eat then and now. Nor could they afford the "waste" of grains associated with producing animals.

As the Indian economy expands, meat will be increasingly consumed by the Indians. We note that a change in meat consumption by India that is an insignificant decimal still amounts to an extremely large gross number when multiplied by 1.3 billion people. Whether or not the world can feed India may indeed become an important question.

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS is from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To contract Ned or to learn more, use this link:

Copyright © 2010 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules