Category: Agricultural Commodities
The news items published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Agri-Foods Long-term Opportunities Amidst Hedge Funds Deleveraging / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Despite ravages brought on by joyful liquidation of hedge fund industry, Agri-Food prices continue to show superior relative performance when compared to equities. That conclusion is readily apparent from this week's first graph. In it are plotted our Agri-Food price index and the S&P 500. As ignorance of complexity of commodities is widespread among investment community and in particular the business media, investors need to make an effort to be better informed. Commodities are both not a homogeneous asset class and an incredible investment opportunity. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Bear Market Deleveraging Producing Incredible Value in Agri-Foods / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
While a bear market is not fun, we should acknowledge the benefits. First, it will eliminate much of the “hedge” fund industry, those that helped create the mortgage debacle and artificially inflated so many asset prices. Investing will be so much better after they are gone. Second, incredible values are being created in markets as these leveraged funds are liquidated. Investors should be looking at these values, rather than in lemming fashion following those mistaking today for 1930. Agri-Food, for example, is not in any way in the same condition as it was in that era. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Hedge Fund Deleveraging and the Real Agri-Foods Trend / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With the welcome liquidation of much of today's hedge & speculative fund industry, equity markets of the world have been ravaged. Investors, globally, are focused on what or whom will fail today. Death of this massive group of momentum traders, while painful now, is actually a welcome event. For however complex their algorithms and for however powerful their computers, heart of those systems is no more than momentum models.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Agri-Foods Mega-trend Gearing Up from Next Bullish Cycle / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
One lesson of last nine years is that listening to Wall Street strategists is harmful to your future wealth. Doing just the opposite of daily hype of the business media is a good way to enhance your future wealth. Many Street strategists missed, for example, the rally in Gold while the stock market has produced really dismal returns. Now again they are attempting to mislead investors. Collapsing Wall Street firms really have very little to do with what happens in the world. Instead, the bail out plan simply diverts capital to more non productive investments. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Archer Daniels Midland to Lead Agricultural Commodities Higher? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) continues to act well -- as a proxy for an extremely oversold and battered agricultural commodity complex. Although the DBA (PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodity ETF) is pulling back today, ADM is doing the opposite. It has hurdled near-term resistance at 24.00/05, and followed through to 24.64 so far this morning. My next upside target is 25.30/50, on the way to 26.00. Only a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 23.90 will begin to compromise today's upside breakout, while a decline that breaks 23.40 will invalidate the breakout altogether. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Agri-Foods the Strategic Long-term Investment / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
What happens when bad weather and a structural uptrend come together? The aftermath of Hurricane Ike may give us some insight. This week's chart is of global rice stocks. Rice, as we know, is an important food in many countries around the world. While rice stocks have improved, current stocks are equal to little more than two months of global consumption.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Agriculture Commodities Time Bomb / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
Commodity prices have pulled back sharply, enough for some market watchers to pronounce the commodity bull "dead." I'll take that bet, because I think we're just seeing a correction in a long-term bull market. What's more, when the next commodity price squeeze comes, it might not be from a sector you'd expect, like energy or metals. It might be food.
I probably don't have to tell you about rising food prices. In the U.S., the cost of groceries rose at an annualized 8.4% rate in July (the latest data available).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
China and India Demand to Fuel Agri-Foods Bull Market / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
If one listens to the popular business media, commodities are dead. When paper oil was trading at $147, the sky was the limit. Now, all is going down. Perhaps they are little more than trend followers? What we really need to know is if the world is awash in grains. Truth is, that view does not in any way describe the global situation. The world has entered an era, ten years or more remaining, when Agri-Food will be in short supply. Whether China grows at 11+% or 9% does not change the conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Investing in Booming Chinese Food Stocks / Companies / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: As a teenager, I couldn't wait to get off the family vegetable farm. While the rest of my friends were joyriding around town, swimming, and otherwise having tons of fun, I was always working.
But attitudes sure do change over time. Now I live in Montana to recapture that rural lifestyle that I hated so much as a teenager.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Agri-foods Correction Presents Long-term Investment Opportunity / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices breaking, nonsense spewing forth from business media and strategists has expanded. Commodity prices have broken, many claim. Yes folks, those billion plus consumers in China stopped eating food the day paper oil prices peaked. We would not be surprised if they do keep eating. Slowdown in China? A possibility, and irrelevant for investment decisions. Imagine selling U.S. equities in1901 due to fear U.S. may have an economic slowdown sometime. That is today's equivalent of ignoring long-term impact of China and India. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
Commodities Coup: Moscow Seizes Control of Agricultural Exports / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Russia has generated considerable political ill will throughout the former Soviet Union and even in Europe by renationalizing its energy sector – ultimately using such state-run ventures as OAO Gazprom and its resource-rich position as weapons of economic diplomacy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Soft Commodities Price Trends / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices having peaked, we keep hearing a question that demonstrates the uninformed minds of many strategists and talking heads in the business media. That question is, “Have commodity prices peaked?” Again, commodities is not a homogeneous asset class. Comprising it are actually three separate and distinct commodity groups. Energy, minerals, and Agri-Food are the three major genus of the family referred to as commodities. Each is driven by different and unique factors. Each will have a individualistic investment cycle that will drive prices and returns. Falling oil prices may tangentially influence some Agri-Food prices, but do not dominate them. However, the greater impact of lower oil price may be the reduction in costs and improved profitability.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Agri-Food Funds Hit by Credit Crisis Hedge Fund Margin Calls / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Virulent fall of equity markets may have more to do with date of 30 June than temporarily high paper oil prices. Last day of June is associated with end of quarter financial statements. Around the world, financial institutions were preparing for and then creating balance sheets for that important date. Those financial institutions felt compelled by market forces to make their balance sheets look good. That desire translated into a continued reduction in available lending to funds of all kinds. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Soft Commodities Bull Market: Grains / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Zeal_LLC
The great commodities bull of the 21st century has elevated individual commodities and sectors of commodities in various phases over the last eight or so years. Those commodities that are finite (hard commodities) took the lead, with energy and metals breaking out to historic highs.
Growing global demand led by Asia 's industrialization has pinched the supplies of these scarce resources. And this has caused an economic imbalance that has birthed massive secular bull markets across the entire energy and metals complexes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Agricultural Commodity ETF Tests Resistance / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Not much of anything going on in the equity or bond markets since the FOMC announcement, however, in general, the equity market appears bid, while the bond market appears offered for the time being. Perhaps the most important reaction to the FOMC statement has been the climb in euro/$ from 1.5540 to 1.5640, which has popped the grains (wheat, corn, beans)... which in turn has popped the DBA (DB Agricultural Commodity, ETF) to test near term resistance at 41.00. If hurdled, let's expect the DBA to surge to retest the June high at 41.42. See our chart.Read full article... Read full article...