Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... - Clive_Maund
4.Stock Market Crash Apocalypse or Bull Market Severe Correction? - Nadeem_Walayat
5.TShipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? - Jeff_Berwick
6.Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Summers: Global Economy Can't Withstand Four 2016 Fed Hikes - Bloomberg
8.Gold And Silver: New World Order: Public Be Damned, Preferably Dead - Michael_Noonan
9.Rigged U.S. Ttreasury Bond Market Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. To Infinity - Jim_Willie_CB
10.Major Stocks Bear Market Awakening - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
The Stock Market Dow Elevator; 18, 17, 16.... - 12th Feb 16
Will Harry Dent Eat Crow on His $700 Gold Price Prediction? - 12th Feb 16
Where to Hide Your Money From Reckless Governments - 12th Feb 16
The War on Cash is About to Go into Hyperdrive - 11th Feb 16
More Bankruptcy For Your Retirement Portfolio - 11th Feb 16
2016 - Gold & Silver Rising: A Gold And Silver Bottom May Be In - 11th Feb 16
Gain Trading Confidence by Improving Your Elliott Wave Analysis Skills - Video - 11th Feb 16
With A Gloomy Start To 2016, A Bust Seems Just Around The Corner - 11th Feb 16
UK Interest Rates, Economy Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - Video - 10th Feb 16
World Markets Are in Sync - 10th Feb 16
If You Miss Buying Gold – You Will Regret, it Later - 10th Feb 16
The Fed Doesn't have a Clue! - 10th Feb 16
How Far Can Gold Price Go? - 10th Feb 16
It's Stock Market Panic Time! - 9th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Picks for Patient Pickers - 9th Feb 16
Oil Price Collapse U.S. Recession Odds 2016 - 9th Feb 16
Preparing for Crisis - It's About Risk Mitigation and Capital Preservation - 9th Feb 16
Top Silver Mining CEO: Don't Laugh, We Could See Silver $100+ - 8th Feb 16
Gold, Investment Leadership Changes Permanent? - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market Panic Decline Begins... - 8th Feb 16
How to Save Money By Growing Your Own Homegrown Tomatoes Indoors From Seeds - 8th Feb 16
US Economy Slides One Step Further Towards A Recession - 8th Feb 16
Gold Bear Market Bottom : Mr. Bear has left the PM Sector for Greener Pastures - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market At Important Support - 8th Feb 16
David Cameron Humiliated in Poland Over Refusal to Stop Taking UK Benefits, BrExit or Super State? - 8th Feb 16
Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here - 7th Feb 16
Stock Market S&P, NAS Best, Most Reliable Answers Come From The Market And You - 7th Feb 16
Stocks Bear Market Continues - 7th Feb 16
Silver COT Paving Way for Sustained Upside Breakout Sharp Rally - 7th Feb 16
US Dollar Double Top, Gold Prospects Brightening Rapidly - 7th Feb 16
Gold And Silver - Is A Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed - 7th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Something has Changed - 6th Feb 16
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - 6th Feb 16
Gold Price, Mining Stocks Rocket Higher - 5th Feb 16
Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues - 5th Feb 16
Gold and Silver: Ripe for a Recovery! China May well Change the Game - 5th Feb 16
How Pension Plans are Responding to Financial Repression - 5th Feb 16
Senior Gold Producer Goldcorp Takes Large Stake in Nevada's Gold Standard Ventures - 5th Feb 16
Tips for Smart Oil and Natural Gas Investing 2016 - 5th Feb 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Financial Crisis 2016

Gold Gains as Eurozone Optimism "May Fade" Following Details

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Oct 27, 2011 - 09:47 AM GMT

By: Ben_Traynor

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTHE SPOT MARKET gold price rallied to $1725 an ounce Thursday lunchtime in London – 5.1% up from the start of the week – following a mid-morning dip.

Silver prices continued to see-saw around $33.50 per ounce – 6.7% up for the week so far.


Stock markets meantime surged throughout the morning following news of an agreement between Eurozone leaders at yesterday's crisis summit.

Commodity prices also rallied strongly, while government bonds sold off.

"The optimism could soon fade, which could see participants once again adopt a risk-off stance," warns Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.

"However, given gold's close co-movement with equities recently (the last few days excluded), it is uncertain whether the metal will benefit from a market returning to risk aversion."

The gold price "has come under some pressure," adds Nikos Kavalis, commodities strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

"But [it] has been supported by good buying from private banks."

Private sector creditors will take a nominal loss of 50% on their Greek bond holdings, Eurozone leaders agreed early on Thursday morning, following eight hours of negotiations.

"Together with an ambitious reform program for the Greek economy, the [50% haircut] should secure the decline of the Greek debt to GDP ratio with an objective of reaching 120% by 2020," said the official Euro Summit Statement.

Banking sector representatives had previously offered to accept a haircut of 40%.

Eurozone leaders, however, invited the banks' representatives to yesterday's summit "not to negotiate, but to inform them on decisions taken by the 17 [Eurozone member countries]," French president Nicolas Sarkozy said.

Politicians threatened "to move toward a scenario of total insolvency of Greece, which would have cost states a lot of money and which would have ruined the banks," according to Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker – who chairs the Eurogroup of single currency finance ministers.

The European Central Bank has repeatedly said any losses should be voluntary in order to avoid a credit event – which could trigger payments on credit default swaps, derivative contracts that act as a form of bond insurance.

However, "as far as the analysis for CDS purposes goes [this agreement] doesn't change things," reckons David Geen, general counsel trade body the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

"As far we can see it's still a voluntary arrangement and therefore we are in the same position as we were with the 21% [haircut] when that was agreed [in July]."

Politicians also agreed to "leverage the resources" of the Eurozone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility – up to a reported €1 trillion, according to some reports. It remains unclear, however, exactly how this will be done.

"It will be important to detail further the modalities of how this enhanced EFSF will operate and deliver the scale of support envisaged," said Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

One option – approved by the German Bundestag yesterday – involves using EFSF funds to part-insure new government bonds issues. The other would see the EFSF set up a special purpose vehicle which would seek investment from "a combination of resources from public and private financial institutions and investors," according to the official statement.

"The EFSF will have the flexibility to use these two options simultaneously," the statement added.
Sarkozy was due to speak to China's president Hu Jintao this afternoon, while Klaus Regling, chief executive of the EFSF, is expected to fly to China tomorrow.

Other members of the BRICS – the group of emerging nations that comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – are however reportedly reluctant to provide funding directly to Europe.
"Brazil is not considering it," the country's finance minister Guido Mantega said yesterday.

"I believe that European countries do not need funds from Brazil to buy bonds...They have to find solutions to the European problems within Europe."

Europe's leaders also agreed that the continent's banking sector requires "a significantly higher capital ratio of 9%." Banks will have until the end of June next year to raise fresh capital.

"Banks should first use private sources of capital...[and they] should be subject to constraints regarding the distribution of dividends and bonus payments until the target has been attained. If necessary, national governments should provide support, and if this support is not available, recapitalization should be funded via a loan from the EFSF in the case of Eurozone countries."

France's central bank reports that the country's four largest banks – which make up 80% of the French banking sector – will need to make up a combined shortfall of €8.8 billion to meet the new requirement. Germany's Commerzbank says it needs €2.9 billion.

Despite this, banking stocks were the biggest gainers as European stock markets rallied strongly Thursday morning – with Germany's DAX up over 4% by lunchtime.

"While the headlines look good, the devil is in the details," warns Damien Boey, Sydney-based equity strategist at Credit Suisse.

"On a long view, I'm bearish on the end-game for all the highly indebted economies (including Europe, the US, Japan and the UK)," adds Gerard Minack, chief market strategist at Morgan Stanley.

"There is no historical precedent for economies as indebted as these to avoid default. There are two ways to default: open default typically associated with recession/depression, or surreptitious default associated with inflation/hyper-inflation."

"The deal isn't the game changer," says Dominic Rossi, chief investment officer at Fidelity.
"The eye of the storm will now move to Rome and its fragile government...Italy's 120% debt-to-GDP doesn't look any more sustainable today than yesterday. Europe is destined for a multi-year workout during where economic growth will be very restrained."

Away from Europe, provisional US third quarter economic growth data are published this afternoon, with most analysts forecasting a slight improvement on Q2's 1.3% year-on-year GDP growth.
"With the heat off Europe for the moment, todays US economic data could be the news to look out for," reckons one London-based gold bullion dealer.

"Markets will be particularly keen to see whether GDP will meet or surpass the predicted improvement, but expect a wobble if figures fall short."

By Ben Traynor
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History