Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Spain's Economic Crisis Shows the Eurozone Can't Escape its Debt Trap

Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis Nov 01, 2011 - 05:32 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Fresh evidence of Spain's deepening economic crisis has revived fears about that nation's ability to dig out of its sovereign debt problems, and illustrates why the Eurozone debt crisis is likely to drag on for years.

Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) was flat in the third quarter, the country's central bank said yesterday (Monday). That follows anemic growth of 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter.


Even more troubling is the nation's unemployment rate, which rose to 22.6% in September - the highest in the Eurozone.

As one of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), Spain has been trying to wrestle down its high sovereign debt with austerity measures. Unfortunately, those measures are driving the Spanish economy toward recession, which is making it impossible for the government to hit its budget deficit reduction targets.

"It will be very difficult to meet the deficit goals without additional austerity, which might push the economy back into recession," Ben May, a European economist atCapital EconomicsinLondon, told Bloomberg News. May thinks Spanish unemployment could go as high as 25%.

Each of the PIIGS faces the same cycle of futility - economy-killing austerity measures that erode the nations' ability to cope with their debt issues, necessitating even deeper austerity measures.

But without the economic growth to create the wealth to cope with the budget deficits, the Eurozone debt crisis will gobble the PIIGS up one by one.

Like Greece
In Greece's case, its faltering economy led to a series of bailouts from the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB), to avoid default.

But the Greek economy is among the Eurozone's smallest. If the other PIIGS, particularly Italy and Spain, descend to where Greece has fallen, there won't be enough money to rescue them.

"Unless European economies outgrow their deficits, the chance of rolling bailouts working is slim to none," said Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani.

Just last week European Union (EU) leaders developed a rescue plan to contain the Greek debt crisis and prevent similar problems in Spain and the other PIIGS. They agreed to increase the EU bailout fund to $1.4 trillion (1 trillion euros), step up efforts to recapitalize banks and write down Greek debt by 50%.

But not only will the plan fail to help the economies of any of the PIIGS, it's little more than a Band-Aid fix.

"The chance of the plan to save Europe actually working is exactly zero," said Gilani, pointing out that the bailout money simply isn't there and will need to be borrowed. Even then it will only be enough to "save Greece from defaulting for about three minutes, and enough to recapitalize all Europe's teetering banks for about four minutes, and enough to prop up Italy's bond market, for about six minutes. Oh, and when the seventh minute starts, they'll need more money all over again."

Spain's Conundrum
Spain had set a target of 1.3% GDP growth for 2011, which after yesterday's news is expected to fall to about 0.8%. That will push the debt to 67% of GDP, which is less than half of that of Greece but still double 2007 levels.

Hitting that growth target was supposed to reduce Spain's budget deficit from 9.2% of GDP last year to 6% of GDP in 2011. The target for 2012 is 4.4%, which looks increasingly unlikely.

"They will never make it," Ludovic Subran, chief economist at credit insurer Euler Hermes SA in Paris, told Bloomberg Businessweek. "Our September forecast sees Spain's deficit at 7%."

Moody's Investor's Service (NYSE: MCO), which two weeks ago cut Spain's credit rating for the third time in two years, said it expects Spain's deficit for 2011 to be 6.5% and fall only to 5.2% for 2012.

Not making its deficit-reduction targets will make it harder for Spain to borrow more money.

"Missing the deficit target would destroy private-sector demand for your bonds," Harvinder Sian, an interest-rate strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, told Bloomberg Businessweek. "If you start seeing big figures like 7%, then it's very problematic."

Spain's economy also is suffering from a hangover from a burst housing bubble even more severe than the crisis in the United States. Real estate losses are still rising in Spain, adding to the risk it will fall further and further behind in meeting its deficit targets, which will push the country ever closer to a full-blown Greek-style crisis.

All of the uncertainty is eroding investor confidence in Spain's ability to solve its debt woes - which could end up lighting the fuse to the financial meltdown everyone fears.

At a recent seminar in Helsinki, noted economist Nouriel Roubini warned of just such an outcome, saying that both Spain and Italy would need a "bazooka" to "have a fighting chance to avoid insolvency."

"Once you have lost the market confidence, and the market doesn't know how much fiscal effort you're going to do, how much reform you're going to do, who's going to be your government, they put pressure on your spreads," Roubini said. "You look insolvent."

Source : http://moneymorning.com/2011/11/01/spains-economic-crisis-shows-the-eurozone-cant-escape-its-debt-trap/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2011 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules