Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks, Bonds, Dollar Cycles Crossroad

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Nov 08, 2011 - 01:57 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe VIX reached what appeared to be its combined Master Cycle and Primary Cycle low on October 17.  The two cycles appeared to agree and the VIX made its low at 28.08 that day. 

However, another zig zag lower appeared on October 28, corresponding with a lesser Trading Cycle low.  This extended the Master Cycle low another 13  days beyond what was normally expected and allowed the equities indexes to go beyond their usual 50-61.8% retracements. 

Bottom line:  From the Master Cycle low the VIX has the capability of a minimum 6-week rally into mid-December.  The next possible low in the VIX will occur between Christmas and New Year’s day. 

The US Dollar was also due for a Master Cycle low on October 17th.  However, its Primary Cycle low was due on October 23, while its Trading Cycle low was due on November 1.  In this case, the Master Cycle low extended to October 27 and split the difference between the two lesser cycles. 

Bottom Line:  The $USD also has the capability of an extended rally for the next 5-6 weeks and the subsequent low (if it occurs) will also be between Christmas and New Year’s day. 

The SPX is due for a Master Cycle low in the next 5-9 days.  In this case there is  no conflict with lesser cycles.  A Master Cycle low is a major low that occurs approximately every 8 months and one of them must be the low for the calendar year.  The last two Master Cycle lows were March 16, 2011 and July 1, 2010.  That is why I believe that a Flash Crash may be due at this time. 

There is one possible alternative.  That is, the Master Cycle low may hyper-extend until December 7, when the next Trading Cycle is due.  That is my second choice at this time, because Options Week takes place next week and there may be an attempt to “save the market” at that time. 

The VIX and the Dollar cycles both support a possible continuous decline through early-mid December.  Regardless of which date it will be, the low for 2011 has not yet arrived in equities.

The primary holders of US Bonds are the world’s banks.  In effect, the banking crisis has already begun, witnessed by the sell-off in the US Treasuries.  Until recently, the sell-off in bonds has resulted in “risk on” trades being encouraged.  That may be an anomaly of the computer trading, which may anticipate a probable inverse relationship between bonds and equities. 

Bonds are at a cross-roads in which a decoupling may be forced in that relationship.  Although TLT has rallied today, it has not broken out to a new high, which would be necessary to consider this move to be more than a retracement.  $USB also had a Master Cycle low on October 27.  A failure to rally from here would be absolutely devastating for the bond market, as it anticipates a decline in bonds until the end of June 2012.  I am currently neutral in US Treasuries. 

I suggest you read Alan Newman’s latest edition of Cross-Currents

Good luck and good trading!



Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules