Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Full on Crash Alert for Major World Stock Markets... - Clive_Maund
3.Gold And Silver Market Bottoming? Big Rally Imminent? Reality Check Says NO - Michael_Noonan
4.The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Outperform All Previous Ones - Hubert_Moolman
5.The Trigger For The Upcoming Stock Crash - Harry_Dent
6.Imploding Department Store Results - James_Quinn
7.Dr. Copper is Speaking, are you Listening? ... - Rambus_Chartology
8.Pandemonium in the Stock Market, Dow falls 1,000 points in a week - EWI
9.Asia's Whirling Dervish of Devaluations Has Encircled China's Exports - Keith_Hilden
10.China Weakens the Yuan; Rattles Global Stock and Financial Markets - Gary_Dorsch
Last 5 days
The Ultimate Cash-Management Guide - 27th Aug 15
Why a Fed Rate Hike Could Be a Blessing for Gold Prices - 27th Aug 15
Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Trend & Trade Signal Of the Decade - 27th Aug 15
Keep Your Eye On the Gold and Silver Bear - 27th Aug 15
Refugees Expose Europe’s Lack Of Decency - 27th Aug 15
How to Profit from China's Currency War - 27th Aug 15
How China's Currency Policies Will Change the World - 27th Aug 15
Chinese Medicine not Impressing Dr Copper - 27th Aug 15
Novel Biotech Novel Technology Platforms with Dramatic Growth Potential - 27th Aug 15
China Stocks Bear Market Crash, Are We Near the Bottom Yet? - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Crash Black Wednesday Rally Crushes the Bears - 26th Aug 15
VIX Shorts Being Squeezed While SPX Prepares for Another Decline - 26th Aug 15
Why China's Economy is Deteriorating - 26th Aug 15
Citizenship as a Weapon: Travel Controls and What You Can Do About It - 26th Aug 15
Gold and Silver - How To Manipulate a Market - 26th Aug 15
How to Make a Quick 20% When the Stock Market Crashes - 26th Aug 15
Why We Can’t Handle A Stocks Bear Market - State Budgets Will Implode - 26th Aug 15
Stocks Bear Market, Is This 1929 All Over Again? - 26th Aug 15
The One Trading Strategy You Needed for Stock Market Crash - 26th Aug 15
Second Chance To Buy Cheap Gold Mining Stocks - 25th Aug 15
Gold Facts and Gold Speculations - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Market Crash Season is Here… - 25th Aug 15
Liftoff Setback Leads to U.S. Dollar Pullback - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Markets Are Extraordinarily Volatile, Here's What to Do - 25th Aug 15
Israel: The Case Against Attacking Iran - 25th Aug 15
Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Oil Meeting - 25th Aug 15
How to Calmly Weather This Stock Market Downturn - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Sound the Alarm - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Meltdown - Dow Monday 1000 Point Crash then Rebound, What's Next? - 25th Aug 15
El-Erian: Stock Market Sell off Is Not 1998 or 2008 - 25th Aug 15
Gold the Ultimate Financial Crisis Insurance - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Black Monday Crash Fizzles Out, Next Black Tuesday? - 25th Aug 15
Black Monday - Rolling A Wheelbarrow Of Dynamite Into A Crowd Of Fire Jugglers - 24th Aug 15
Playing the Chinese Trump Card - 24th Aug 15
Gold and Silver: Heading for a “Blue Screen of Death” Event? - 24th Aug 15
Japan Economy Clear Conclusions Concerning QE - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market Blockbuster Right From the Open... - 24th Aug 15
Silver And The Petrodollar - 24th Aug 15
Why the Stock Market Sell-Off Happened – and How to Make Money on It - 24th Aug 15
Stocks Correct, Panic Ensues. The End Of The World? - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market - The Sky IS Falling - 24th Aug 15
SP500, DAX, FTSE - When Stock Markets Talk, Pay Attention - 24th Aug 15
Stock Market Black Monday - Full Crash Alert! - 24th Aug 15
Stock Markets Implode as China Literally Explodes - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market Bloodbath - The Feds Gonna Need A Bigger Balance Sheet - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market Due For A Breather (But More To Go) - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market 20% Bear Market in the Works - 23rd Aug 15
Ankara: the New Capital of Jihad, U.S. Policy for Strengthening ISIS - 23rd Aug 15
Will Rising Interest Rates Crash UK House Prices? - Video - 23rd Aug 15
Stock Market Primary IV Underway? - 22nd Aug 15
Gold And Silver – NWO In Its Element: Problem, Reaction, Solution. Beware - 22nd Aug 15
Stock Market Nirvana Has Been Broken - 22nd Aug 15
Three Ways to Profit from the Stock Market Correction - 22nd Aug 15
S&P 2040 Breaks Down... Stock Market Turns Bearish - 22nd Aug 15
Storm Clouds Are Gathering Around Peer-to-Peer Lending Sector - 22nd Aug 15
Crude Oil Price Crash Continues: West Texas Crude Below $40, Brent Near $45 - 22nd Aug 15
Pandemonium in the Stock Market, Dow falls 1,000 points in a week - 22nd Aug 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Stocks Slide

Learning from MF Global Bankruptcy

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Dec 21, 2011 - 06:27 AM GMT

By: William_Bancroft

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this article we look at how the failure of MF Global might affect the financial markets and trade in general. We learn from one of the gold market’s most famous investors, Jim Sinclair, and hear how this incident might affect the gold price. Mr Sinclair’s comments are worth reading for all investors but especially those inclined toward gold and silver.

During our spare moments reading apparently ‘anoraky’ financial books, we come across the odd gem that we excitedly recommend to our friends for a week or two in a flush of enthusiasm.


One of our favourites is ‘Reminscences of a Stock Operator’ by Edwin Lefèvre, that is meant to document a series of conversations between the great trader, Jesse Livermore, and an unusually market savvy journalist.

An investment classic

Reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator one is left with a real appreciation of the irresistible nature of speculation, perhaps gambling, for humans and our fascination with the market. We also felt an appreciation of how the casino is generally the winner, and in this case that Wall St has been piking the people for generations.

The dynamic seemed to be built upon retail cash made in the wider economy being poured into Wall St, with not as much as had been hoped returning. The system did not eat itself though.

Our thoughts returned to this issue and whether the system was becoming more in danger of risk from itself and within with the failure of MF Global.

Did anyone else watch the testimony of John Corzine and think, how did we get here?

How was a CEO of such a business unable to account for so many significant events and issues?

Where is all the client money?

What is so shameful is that such a regulated financial business was legally permitted to leverage and speculate with client funds as Harry Markopolos points out.

Learning from trading royalty

During these musings our thoughts were sharpened by an interview by King World News with one of the best known traders in the gold market, Jim Sinclair. Jim is a figure of reverence in the markets and is always worth listening to. He forecast a gold price of $1650/ounce and greater in 2000 when this was almost unthinkable and gold investors were derided as hayseeds with a wish to be parted with their capital.

Rather poetically Jim Sinclair also has a link to the aforementioned Jesse Livermore. His father Bert Seligmann was in fact business partners with Livermore.

During the interview Jim sets out how the MF collapse is totally different to the failure of a retail facing institution, and as such its implications are markedly different and potentially greater. This failure within the core of the system has burnt some of its most central participants but has crucially broken something potentially more important than this.

When quizzed about MF, Jim starts by urging that “When you see the inner workings of Wall St and finance through the eyes of MF; totally shocking”.

What MF Global will mean for the financial markets

After dealing with some technicalities with the difference between MF Global’s failure and that of REFCO and others Jim cites the Bush administration’s regulatory changes with regard to and bankruptcy law with regard to derivatives accounting and advises that:

“This puts into question whether any clearing entity, because they’re all working with these things, can or will protect your funds under the law, if segregation means anything whatsoever.

Without that what you’ve done is gone and broken the mechanism. The mechanism of the market place is clear.

In all markets without clearing there is no settlement of trade. So the question is has the mechanism of the marketplace broken down?”

We are informed that if the mechanism breaks the market cannot be brought back, because there is nothing left to bring back and that “right now there is still confidence due to rank ignorance of what’s going on”.

Investors all use a clearing house whether they are retail and playing on the side lines owning a few Mom and Pop shares or running significant sums of money. As Jim reminds us:

“If you’re investing and the items you’re holding are not in your name, be it physical metals or securities, you’re in a clearing house.

This event is so complex that I’m not sure that even the professionals reporting on it or even a good deal of the management of companies operating in it totally understand it. When MF Global went down that broke the mechanism…

…we’ve already seen that a clearing house may have been an entity set up to collect funds from all types of clients to use to speculate for its own account.

It is almost impossible to tell whether one’s clearing mechanism are not hypothecating and using client funds to create leverage for their own speculation.

In the Lehman case the banksters took out Main Street. The sharks will eat the sharks now because in the case of the clearing house what you’re taking out is the traders and investors who had confidence… that their money was safe from misuse of the management of the clearing house. You lose confidence in that, how do you settle trades?”

Has the market mechanism broken?

Has clearing and settlement been critically undermined?

Time will tell, and investors may reappraise their portfolios accordingly.

Sinclair offers that “there’s two things you’ve got to do right now, that’s be your own central bank, and be your own clearing house”.

Whatever you think of Jim’s wider world view, his analysis of the MF Global collapse is thought provoking.

Taking another look at our portfolios may be no bad thing. When we look at ours we find that:

  • The gold and silver bullion sit there free from counterparty risk and outside of the financial system achieving what we asked them to do. We don’t own ETFs we find them sub-optimal products for owning precious metals. We looked at this previously.
  • It gets more complicated with our stocks and shares covering sectors from precious metals miners to uranium miners and rare earth miners. A couple of emails and signed letters of authority later and the procedure of taking possession of our stock holdings has just begun. The process seems to work none too fast apparently. We now wait and send a reminder email every few days as we are informed by our broker that “…will come back to you shortly regarding whether or not we are able to rematerialise each of your holdings into certificated form and the costs involved”.
  • Further investments in agriculture and agricultural commodities are difficult to isolate from the system. There’s not much we can do here as futures and options are being used.

What does it mean for the gold price?

As gold and silver investors, and hopefully not suffering from what Didier Sornette calls an investor’s inescapable ‘bounded rationality’, we find the potential reaction to MF Global’s failure helpful for investment assets free from counterparty risk that are not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

The need for liquidity and to cover losses seem to be contributing to a soft gold price at the moment, where the markets main element of price discovery centres around the COMEX paper markets, but in the longer term we find this positive for gold. Any form of trend was temporarily lost during 2008 for the gold market as well.

Jim Sinclair finishes his discussion of MF with the following:

“More problems occur like this, less people trade, less life to markets, three to four hundred dollar range to gold (daily movements in the gold price), why not? The only money I can count on is the money I own. Everything else depends on the system”.

Regards and good investing,

Will Bancroft

For The Real Asset Company.

http://therealasset.co.uk

Aside from being Co-Founder and COO, Will regularly contributes to The Real Asset Company’s Research Desk. His passion for politics, philosophy and economics led him to develop a keen interest in Austrian economics, gold and silver. Will holds a BSc Econ Politics from Cardiff University.

© 2011 Copyright Will Bancroft - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History