Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Full on Crash Alert for Major World Stock Markets... - Clive_Maund
3.Gold And Silver Market Bottoming? Big Rally Imminent? Reality Check Says NO - Michael_Noonan
4.The Coming Silver Price Rally Will Outperform All Previous Ones - Hubert_Moolman
5.The Trigger For The Upcoming Stock Crash - Harry_Dent
6.Imploding Department Store Results - James_Quinn
7.Dr. Copper is Speaking, are you Listening? ... - Rambus_Chartology
8.Pandemonium in the Stock Market, Dow falls 1,000 points in a week - EWI
9.Asia's Whirling Dervish of Devaluations Has Encircled China's Exports - Keith_Hilden
10.China Weakens the Yuan; Rattles Global Stock and Financial Markets - Gary_Dorsch
Last 5 days
Independant Scotland 1 Year on, UK Civil War If the SNP Fanatics Had Succeeded - 30th Aug 15
Gold’s 7 Point Broadening Top - 30th Aug 15
The Day the Stock Market Shook the Earth: Takeaways From the Dow’s 1,000-Point Drop - 30th Aug 15
Gold Price Rally Marked by Short Covering - 30th Aug 15
Aging Stocks Bull Market - 29th Aug 15
Economic Destabilization, Financial Meltdown and the Rigging of the Shanghai Stock Market? - 29th Aug 15
The Stocks You Should Be Buying After the Market Drop - 29th Aug 15
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Market Fluctuations - 28th Aug 15
China's Yuan Devaluation: Why It Was "Expected" - 28th Aug 15
Stocks Go Nuts But the Question Remains – Will the Rally Stick? - 28th Aug 15
Fed’s Stock Market Levitation is Failing - 28th Aug 15
The Eight Energy Systems Driving The Stock Market Rout - 28th Aug 15
Silver Sold, then Squeezed - 28th Aug 15
U.S. Economic Fundamentals 'Look Good' - Bullard of St. Louis Fed - 28th Aug 15
Stock Market Margin Calls Mount - 28th Aug 15
Einstein, Physics, Gold and The Formula To End Economic Decay - 28th Aug 15
The 10 Best Stocks for Options Trading Plays in This Market - 28th Aug 15
Economics of a Stock Market Crash - 28th Aug 15
Currency Wars Detonate; Gold Refuses to Budge - 28th Aug 15
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Record, Trending Towards Becoming a Catastrophe - 28th Aug 15
The Ultimate Cash-Management Guide - 27th Aug 15
Why a Fed Rate Hike Could Be a Blessing for Gold Prices - 27th Aug 15
Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Trend & Trade Signal Of the Decade - 27th Aug 15
Keep Your Eye On the Gold and Silver Bear - 27th Aug 15
Refugees Expose Europe’s Lack Of Decency - 27th Aug 15
How to Profit from China's Currency War - 27th Aug 15
How China's Currency Policies Will Change the World - 27th Aug 15
Chinese Medicine not Impressing Dr Copper - 27th Aug 15
Novel Biotech Novel Technology Platforms with Dramatic Growth Potential - 27th Aug 15
China Stocks Bear Market Crash, Are We Near the Bottom Yet? - 27th Aug 15
Stock Market Crash Black Wednesday Rally Crushes the Bears - 26th Aug 15
VIX Shorts Being Squeezed While SPX Prepares for Another Decline - 26th Aug 15
Why China's Economy is Deteriorating - 26th Aug 15
Citizenship as a Weapon: Travel Controls and What You Can Do About It - 26th Aug 15
Gold and Silver - How To Manipulate a Market - 26th Aug 15
How to Make a Quick 20% When the Stock Market Crashes - 26th Aug 15
Why We Can’t Handle A Stocks Bear Market - State Budgets Will Implode - 26th Aug 15
Stocks Bear Market, Is This 1929 All Over Again? - 26th Aug 15
The One Trading Strategy You Needed for Stock Market Crash - 26th Aug 15
Second Chance To Buy Cheap Gold Mining Stocks - 25th Aug 15
Gold Facts and Gold Speculations - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Market Crash Season is Here… - 25th Aug 15
Liftoff Setback Leads to U.S. Dollar Pullback - 25th Aug 15
The Stock Markets Are Extraordinarily Volatile, Here's What to Do - 25th Aug 15
Israel: The Case Against Attacking Iran - 25th Aug 15
Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Oil Meeting - 25th Aug 15
How to Calmly Weather This Stock Market Downturn - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Sound the Alarm - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Meltdown - Dow Monday 1000 Point Crash then Rebound, What's Next? - 25th Aug 15
El-Erian: Stock Market Sell off Is Not 1998 or 2008 - 25th Aug 15
Gold the Ultimate Financial Crisis Insurance - 25th Aug 15
Stock Market Black Monday Crash Fizzles Out, Next Black Tuesday? - 25th Aug 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Stocks Slide

Gold Outlook 2012 – Positive Fundamentals Remain and Crucial Diversification

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 21, 2011 - 08:28 AM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article• Introduction – Gold in 2011
• Money Creating Central Banks May Push Gold to New Nominal Record in 2012 
• Central Banks Will Continue To Be Net Buyers of Gold
• China Foreign Exchange Diversification Should Support Demand


• PIIGS Lesson: Iceland Shows How Gold Protects From FX Crises
• Currency Wars and Competitive Currency Devaluations
• Falling Confidence in Paper Assets, Bank Deposits May Prompt Physical Deliveries
• Gold Remains A Historically and Academically Proven Safe Haven
• Conclusion – Gold in 2012

Introduction
With just a few trading days left in 2011, we can take stock of gold’s performance vis-à-vis other assets.

Gold is 13.7% higher in USD, 12% higher in GBP and 14.4% higher in EUR.  Gains were seen in all fiat currencies and even stronger performing fiat currencies such as the CNY (yuan) and JPY (+9% and +8.75% respectively).

G10 and Gold in USD in 2011 (YTD)

Stock markets globally had a torrid year with the S&P500 down 1.3%, the FTSE down 8% and the CAC and DAX down 19% and 15% respectively. Asian stock markets also fell with the Nikkei down 17%, the Hang Seng 20% and the Shanghai SE down 22%.

The MSCI World Index fell 9%.

Thus, gold again acted as a safe haven and protected and preserved wealth over the long term.

While gold reached record nominal highs at $1,915/oz in August, it is important to continually emphasize that gold remains well below the real high, adjusted for inflation, in 1980 of $2,500/oz.

Gold today at $1,625/oz is 18% below the record nominal high of $1915/oz in August 2011. More importantly, gold remains 46% below its real high of $2,500/oz. 

Since 2003, we have said that gold would likely reach the real high from 1980 for a variety of important fundamental reasons – such as global debt levels, global demographics and geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary and systemic risk.

Money Creating Central Banks May Push Gold to New Nominal Record in 2012

Money Creating (Electronic and Printing) Central Banks Push Gold to Nominal Records (2008-2011)

Global money supply continued to rise in 2011 and helped push gold prices to all-time highs on the fear of currency debasement. If accommodative monetary policies continue as the dominant tool for central banks, precious metals will almost certainly continue to benefit.

Were this trend to turn, responsible monetary policy actions could hinder returns. We see no prospect of this in the short term – and little prospect in the medium term.

Central Banks Will Continue To Be Net Buyers of Gold

Gold Diversifying Central Banks Should Support Demand

Central banks have bought about 30 million ounces of  gold since March 2009, about 12% of global demand on  trailing 10-quarter basis. As central banks focus on stimulating growth, negative  real interest rates in developing nations should continue to push diversification of foreign exchange reserves, which may encourage bullion purchases.

Central bank gold reserves are likely to return to the levels seen in the 1970’s and 1980’s due to a significant reappraisal of monetary risk and a recognition of gold’s increasing importance as a monetary asset.

China Foreign Exchange Diversification Should Support Demand

China Adds Gold in Diversifying Foreign Holdings

China, one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, has publicly said that it intends to continue to diversify its foreign-exchange holdings. The total volume of China's Treasury holdings appears to be showing the first yoy declines in 10 years while gold reserves continue to increase by about 30% a year.

Creditor nation central banks gold holdings remain very small when compared to western debtor nation gold holdings which are generally well over 50%. 

It is important to note that the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves (officially at 1,054 tonnes) remain very small when compared to those of the U.S. (8,133 tonnes) and indebted European nations - such as Italy with 2,452 tonnes.

China's growing gold reserves are miniscule when compared with China’s massive foreign exchange reserves of over $3.1 trillion. The People’s Bank of China is almost certainly continuing to quietly accumulate gold bullion reserves. Common sense alone strongly suggests that they are.

As was the case previously, the Chinese government will not announce their gold bullion purchases to the market in order to ensure they accumulate their gold reserves at more competitive prices. They also do not wish to create instability or falls in or runs on the dollar and or euro – thereby devaluing their sizeable reserves.

PIIGS Lesson: Iceland Shows How Gold Protects From FX Crises

Iceland  Shows How Forex Crises Move Gold

The steep declines of Iceland's krona in 2008 and Argentina's peso in 2002 show how gold can outperform in a depreciating currency. As the likelihood of default increases, the bulk of the gains in gold priced in the currency are realized within the first few months. 

The people of the so called “PIIGS” - Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain – are all at risk of currency devaluations. Some estimate the risk as high, others low but investors and savers in these countries should protect themselves by having an allocation to gold that will protect them from “bank holidays” and currency devaluations.

Currency Wars and Competitive Currency Devaluations
However, it is not just the “PIIGS” who are at risk. The risk in periphery European nations will likely be of a sharp overnight or weekend devaluation (or a series of such devaluations) and reversion to their national currencies. However all nations, PIIGS and non PIIGS alike, are at risk of currency devaluations and currency wars.

Currency wars and the debasement of currencies for competitive advantage poses real risks to the long term stability and prosperity of all democracies in the world and to the finances and savings of people in all countries. 

Falling Confidence in Paper Assets, Bank Deposits May Prompt Physical Deliveries

Falling Faith in Currency May Spur Gold Deliveries (Charts Courtesy of Bloomberg Industries)

Current market turmoil is likely to continue and may even deepen. The prospect of sovereign defaults is real which could see confidence in paper assets, particularly sovereign debt, further erode. Contagion means that even AAA rated debt is no longer risk free.

Institutions and high net worth and retail clients taking physical delivery of gold given a decline in confidence would put pressure on exchanges to deliver because the amount of metal represented in open interest is nearly six times (5.8) the amount of metal in inventory.

Gold Remains An Historically and Academically Proven Safe Haven
Forgive us for continually emphasizing how gold is a historically and academically proven safe haven.

We feel it is very important that investors and savers understand this and are frustrated by the continuing significant degree of ignorance regarding the gold market and gold’s role as a diversification, a store of wealth and a wealth preservation asset.

Some of the media and some experts continue to focus solely on gold’s price and not its value as a diversification for portfolios. Many economists and other experts have been suggesting that gold is a bubble for a number of years and suggested that again at the beginning of 2011 and again recently.

The facts, the data and the charts strongly suggest that this is not the case. In August, we presented 

‘Is Gold a Bubble? 14 Charts, the Facts and the Data Suggest Not’. Many of the charts were long term in nature (2000-2011 and 1970-2011) and remain important today.

Whether gold is a bubble or not is not the fundamental question. What is far more important is that there is now a large body of academic and independent research showing gold is a safe haven asset. 

Numerous academic studies have proved gold’s importance in investment and pension portfolios – for both enhancing returns but more importantly reducing risk.

The importance of owning gold in a properly diversified portfolio has been shown in studies and academic papers by Mercer Consulting, Bruno and Chincarini, Scherer, Baur and McDermott, Lucey, Ciner and Gurdgiev and by the asset allocation specialist, Ibbotson.

An academic paper, ‘Hedges and Safe Havens – An Examination of Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold and the Dollar' by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev and Dr Brian Lucey and was presented in November at a conference hosted by the Bank for International Settlements, the ECB and the World Bank.

This excellent research paper clearly shows gold's importance to a diversified portfolio due to gold's "unique properties as simultaneously a hedge instrument and a safe haven."

Oxford Economics research on gold in July 2011, showed how gold is a good hedge against inflation as well as deflation.

Only last week, more excellent independent research was released confirming gold's unique role as a diversifier and foundation asset in the portfolios of investors, especially at a time of heightened currency,  investment and systemic risk.

The independent research once again confirms the importance of gold as a portfolio diversifier to investors and as a store of wealth.

Conclusion – Gold in 2012
Many market participants and non gold and silver experts tend to focus on the daily fluctuations and “noise” of the market and not see the “big picture” major change in the fundamental supply and demand situation in the gold and silver bullion markets – particularly due to investment and central bank demand from China, the rest of an increasingly wealthy Asia and creditor nation central banks.

Support for the price of gold should come from the rising global money supply coupled with increasing investor and central bank purchases which have been driven by falling real interest rates and concerns about the euro, the dollar and other fiat currencies as stores of value.

Tighter monetary policies, as seen in the late 1970’s, would likely help alleviate fears of further currency debasement but it is extremely unlikely that this will be seen in 2012.

Indeed, ultra loose monetary policies, debt monetization, competitive currency devaluations and global currency wars look set to continue – if not intensify.  

Gold will likely reward investors internationally in 2012 as it did in 2011 and will again be an essential diversification for anyone wishing to protect and grow wealth in what will be a very volatile 2012 and in the coming volatile years.

Wishing you and yours a Happy Christmas and a prosperous and healthy 2012

For the latest news and commentary on financial markets and gold please follow us on Twitter.

GOLDNOMICS - CASH OR GOLD BULLION?



'GoldNomics' can be viewed by clicking on the image above or on our YouTube channel:
www.youtube.com/goldcorelimited

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

Yours sincerely,
Mark O'Byrne
Exective Director

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W www.goldcore.com

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History