Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.RED ALERT: Paris Terror Attacks - What to Expect Next - STRATFOR
2.Paris Terror Attacks, Death Pangs of a Dying Religion, and Impact on BrExit EU Referendum - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Paris Terror Attacks, Islamic State Attempting to Spark Civil War in France - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Three Shocking Charts That Prove Gold Price Rally Is Coming - Sean Brodrick
5.Stock Market Nifty-Fifty Becomes Fab-Five; Return of the 'Four Horseman' - Mike_Shedlock
6.Africa Population Explosion - Why Europe's Migrant Crisis is Going to Get A Lot Worse - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Mining Stocks May Be The Buy Of The Century - Jeff_Berwick
8.Grandmaster Putin Beats Uncle Sam at His Own Game - Mike_Whitney
9.BRICS? No, CRISIS - Raymond_Matison
10.UK Housing Market Affordability, House Prices Momentum and Trend Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Stock Market Consolidation Week - 29th Nov 15
A Black Friday for Gold Prices - 29th Nov 15
Politicians Driving The World Towards War - Fourth Turning - 29th Nov 15
Stock Market Down Monday, Gold Price Bottoming? - 29th Nov 15
Turkey Downs Russian Jet to Draw NATO and US Deeper into Syrian Quagmire - 28th Nov 15
Stock Market Quiet Week as Primary 5 Continues - 28th Nov 15
Black Friday, Weekend for Europe's Migrants - 28th Nov 15
HUI and Gold - Who's Leading Whom? - 28th Nov 15
Gold And Silver - No Ending Action, But End May Be Near - 28th Nov 15
Social and Cultural Distress Dividing The Nation - Fourth Turning - 28th Nov 15
Sheffield Houses Prices 2015, Best Estate Agents As Rated by Buyers and Sellers - 28th Nov 15
Stock Market Top Valuations, at a Critical Juncture - 27th Nov 15
The Top Shopping Opportunity on Black Friday - 27th Nov 15
Economics Is About Scarcity, Property, and Relationships - 27th Nov 15
UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme of 336k Net Migration, up 32% on 2014 - 27th Nov 15
Vauxhall Zafira B Fire Danger Recall - What to Do Video - 26th Nov 15
Triggers In US Dollar Collapse - 26th Nov 15
Apple Stock is a 10-Year Short - Bear Market Environment - 26th Nov 15
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hike - 26th Nov 15
George Osborne's War on Buy to Let Sector Trending Towards Doomsday - 26th Nov 15
Will Turkey Drag NATO into War With Russia in Syria? - 25th Nov 15
George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and Spending Review Full Text - 25th Nov 15
Will Fresh QE From ECB Boost Gold? - 25th Nov 15
Sheffield, Yorkshire and Humberside House Prices Forecast 2016-2018 - 25th Nov 15
Investors Watch Out For The Auto Industry… - 24th Nov 15
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% - 24th Nov 15
Stock Market Supports Are Being Broken - 24th Nov 15
Is Gold Price on the Verge of a Breakout? - 24th Nov 15
Fed’s Tarullo: U.S. Interest Rates Liftoff Should Wait for Signs of Inflation - 24th Nov 15
Silver Price, COT, US Dollar Updates and More - 24th Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices Analysis - Video - 23rd Nov 15
Crude Oil Swinging For The Fences - A 20 to 1 Option Play - 23rd Nov 15
US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation - 23rd Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices, Cheapest and Most Expensive Property Markets - 23rd Nov 15
Stock Market Rally Losing Momentum? - 23rd Nov 15
Will Gold Price Drop Below $1000 Soon? - 23rd Nov 15
Gold and Silver Sector Big Green Light and Low Risk Entry Setup... - 23rd Nov 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks

Apple Vs Gold, Silver and Past Market Bubbles

Companies / Company Chart Analysis Feb 19, 2012 - 07:29 AM GMT

By: Willem_Weytjens


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleApple (Ticker: AAPL) is doing great these days. In January, the company reported that profits for the holiday quarter more than doubled.

The stock price shot up 8% on the news, and rallied all the way to over $526 per share in the days that followed.

On July 10th 1997, the stock was trading as low as $3.16. From $3.16 to $526+ is an increase of 16,554.75% in 15 years time.
The chart is starting to look like a bubble in the making, as price is starting to go parabolic.

Chart courtesy

When we take a look at past bubbles, we can see that Apple has now reached the top 3 of all “Bubbles”. Only eDigital and the Poseidon bubble did even better, with returns of 45,400% and 34,900% respectively…

Chart courtsey

Could Apple go even higher? Sure! Imagine it would rise to $1,000 per share. It would then have gained 31,545.57%, which would be close to the Poseidon Bubble.
In order to beat the eDigital Bubble, AAPL would almost have to tripple to over $1,437.80.

Chart courtesy

Is it possible? Yes… AAPL is trading at historically low price-to-Forward Earnings levels, as can be seen in the chart below.
If instead, AAPL would be trading at a Price-to-Earnings Ratio of let’s say 30, and we assume profits would remain flat over the next 2 years, then Apple would be trading close to the $1,437.80 level.

In addition to the low Price-to-Earnings valuation, AAPL has a war-chest of $97.6 Billion (of which $64 Billion is off-shore), which it could use to make acquisitions, pay dividends, buyback shares, buy patents, and so on, so Apple has a lot of possibilities to grow even further.

Chart courtesy Zacks Research Wizard

To put things in perspective: During the Tech Bubble, Cisco Systems (Ticker: CSCO) was trading at an insane 150 times Forward Earnings:

Chart courtesy Zacks Research Wizard

Apple’s gains dwarf those of Gold and Silver, even though those two assets also had a very impressive run since the beginning of the 21st century:

Chart courtesy

Gold was up 663,87% from its low in 1999 to its high in 2011, while silver was up 1,130.12% from its low in 2001 to its high in 2011.

When we compare Gold to Silver, we can see that Silver also went parabolic in April 2011 and has come down sharply since.

Chart courtesy

If silver would rise as much as during the ’70s (3,099%), it would have to rise to $129.56 per ounce.
Gold (Up 2,276% in the seventies), would have to rise towards $5,975.65.

Please notice that Alf Field has often called for $6,000 gold (link).

Martin Armstrong has also had a terrific track record. Here were his predictions he made in 1998 (see the last slide of this presentation):

1998 = Collapse of Russia
1999 = Low Gold & Oil
2000 = Technology Bubble (Like Railroads in 1907)
2002 = Bottom US Share Market
2007 = Real Estate Bubble, Oil hits $100
2009 = Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis
2011-15 = Japan Economic Decline
EURO begins to crack due to debt crisis
2015.75 = Sovereign Debt Big Bang

All of those predictions up till 2011 have come true. If the last one also comes true, then the above targets for Gold and Silver would become extremely likely as faith in paper currency would likely smelt like snow in the sun.

Good luck investing.

For more articles, trading Updates, Nightly Reports and much more, please visit and feel free to sign up for our services!

Willem Weytjens

© 2012 Copyright Willem Weytjens - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2015 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History