Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review - Rambus_Chartology
3.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Ebola Terror Threat Suicide Bio-Weapons Threatens Multiple 9/11's, Global Plague - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer" - Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
6.Gold And Silver Still No End In Sight - Michael_Noonan
7.NHS Baldrick Plan to Spread Ebola Across UK - Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, London Hospitals - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Gold Bug is Set to Bite Back - EWI
9.How Alibaba Could Capitalize on the EBay-PayPal Split - Frank_Holmes
10.The Consequences of the Economic Peace - John_Mauldin
Last 5 days
Stocks Bear Market Indicator Is Off the Mark - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Ideal Turning Point is at Hand - 20th Oct 14
Investors Quit Complaining, The Environment is Perfect Right Now - 20th Oct 14
Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices - 20th Oct 14
Gold vs Euro Risk Due To Possible Return of Italian Lira - Drachmas, Escudos, Pesetas and Punts? - 20th Oct 14
Stocks Rebounded Following Recent Sell-Off, But Will It Last? - 20th Oct 14
U.S. Responsible for West Africa Ebola Outbreak Says Liberian Scientist - 20th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate B Wave has Started - 20th Oct 14
Gold Stocks Analysis – FNV, CG, NCM, SBM - 19th Oct 14
Stock Market Primary IV Wave Counter Trend Rally - 19th Oct 14
Gold And Silver - Financial World: House Of Cards Built On Sand - 18th Oct 14
Anatomy of a Stock Market Sell-Off - 18th Oct 14
Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia - 18th Oct 14
Gold and Silver Extreme Shorting Peaks - 18th Oct 14
Bitcoin Price Fall to $350? - 18th Oct 14
Tesco Supermarket Crisis Worse To Come as Customers Vanish! - 18th Oct 14
Sheffield Roma Crisis School Place Application's Fraud Perfect Storm - 17th Oct 14
Stock Markets, Commodities and Indicators - 17th Oct 14
“Save Our Swiss Gold ” - Game Changer For Gold? - 17th Oct 14
How to Trade the Ebola Stock Market Sell-Off - 17th Oct 14
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 - 17th Oct 14
Either You're The Butcher or You're The Cattle - 17th Oct 14
Gold Benefits from Market Uncertainty - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Pullback Underway, Euro downside, Commodities - 17th Oct 14
Stock Market Seven Year Cycle and A Correction Ahead? - 17th Oct 14
Three Ways to Play Uranium: Top Stock Picks - 17th Oct 14
America Flirts With Deflation - 17th Oct 14
Why the Fed Should Consider Delaying the End of QE - 16th Oct 14
Gold Prices Since 9-11 - 16th Oct 14
The Inflation Imputation, Dear Saver, May You RIP - 16th Oct 14
Flight To Safety - Gold Rises As Stocks, European Bonds Sink - 16th Oct 14
The March Of History And The End Of Nations - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Bear Markets Move Fast and Are Intensely Emotional - 16th Oct 14
Stocks Got Their Piece – Now It’s Our Turn - 16th Oct 14
Why This Stock Market Selloff Is the Next "Buy the Dip" Opportunity in Stocks - 15th Oct 14
Possible Stock Market Runing Correction - 15th Oct 14
Get Your Tactics Ready for the Ebola Stock Market Event - 15th Oct 14
Secret Scheme To Manipulate Silver Price - Lawsuits Against Banks Proceed - 15th Oct 14
Stocks Bull Market Over? Trend Forecast to End Jan 2015 - Video - 15th Oct 14
Stock Market Dow The Contrarian Play - 15th Oct 14
The Ukraine, As We Know It, Is Gone Forever - 15th Oct 14
We Can Police the Dark Web / Bitcoin - 15th Oct 14
The Safest Stocks in the World - 14th Oct 14
Building an Ark: How to Protect Public Revenues From the Next Financial Meltdown - 14th Oct 14
9 Ways to Retire Rich - 14th Oct 14
Silver, Warfare and Welfare - 14th Oct 14
Swiss Gold Referendum “Propaganda War” Begins - 14th Oct 14
What Happened To The Fourth Estate? - 14th Oct 14
How To Blow Up OPEC In 3 Easy Steps - 14th Oct 14
Investment Myth - Wars are bullish/bearish for Stocks - 14th Oct 14
Powerful Reversal and Shakeout in the Junior Gold Mining Stocks at May Lows Around $33 - 13th Oct 14
When The Economy Went Ponzi - 13th Oct 14
Stock Markets Get Ugly – and May Be Getting Uglier - 13th Oct 14
Cycle Failures Point to a Stock Market Correction - 13th Oct 14
Bill Ackman: I'm not a Crybaby Shareholder - 13th Oct 14
U.S. and World Stock Markets Chartology - 13th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate Downtrend Confirmed - 13th Oct 14
Gold and Silver Price To Rally Or Not To Rally - 13th Oct 14
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 - 12th Oct 14
Has Obama Changed His Mind About Syria? - 12th Oct 14
New Zero Bound Only Game In Town - 12th Oct 14
The 5–Year U.S. Treasury Bond is Emblematic of Careless Risk Taking in Bond Markets - 12th Oct 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stocks Epic Bear Market

Apple Vs Gold, Silver and Past Market Bubbles

Companies / Company Chart Analysis Feb 19, 2012 - 07:29 AM GMT

By: Willem_Weytjens

Companies

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleApple (Ticker: AAPL) is doing great these days. In January, the company reported that profits for the holiday quarter more than doubled.

The stock price shot up 8% on the news, and rallied all the way to over $526 per share in the days that followed.


On July 10th 1997, the stock was trading as low as $3.16. From $3.16 to $526+ is an increase of 16,554.75% in 15 years time.
The chart is starting to look like a bubble in the making, as price is starting to go parabolic.

Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

When we take a look at past bubbles, we can see that Apple has now reached the top 3 of all “Bubbles”. Only eDigital and the Poseidon bubble did even better, with returns of 45,400% and 34,900% respectively…

Chart courtsey Sharelynx.com

Could Apple go even higher? Sure! Imagine it would rise to $1,000 per share. It would then have gained 31,545.57%, which would be close to the Poseidon Bubble.
In order to beat the eDigital Bubble, AAPL would almost have to tripple to over $1,437.80.


Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

Is it possible? Yes… AAPL is trading at historically low price-to-Forward Earnings levels, as can be seen in the chart below.
If instead, AAPL would be trading at a Price-to-Earnings Ratio of let’s say 30, and we assume profits would remain flat over the next 2 years, then Apple would be trading close to the $1,437.80 level.

In addition to the low Price-to-Earnings valuation, AAPL has a war-chest of $97.6 Billion (of which $64 Billion is off-shore), which it could use to make acquisitions, pay dividends, buyback shares, buy patents, and so on, so Apple has a lot of possibilities to grow even further.

Chart courtesy Zacks Research Wizard

To put things in perspective: During the Tech Bubble, Cisco Systems (Ticker: CSCO) was trading at an insane 150 times Forward Earnings:


Chart courtesy Zacks Research Wizard

Apple’s gains dwarf those of Gold and Silver, even though those two assets also had a very impressive run since the beginning of the 21st century:


Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

Gold was up 663,87% from its low in 1999 to its high in 2011, while silver was up 1,130.12% from its low in 2001 to its high in 2011.

When we compare Gold to Silver, we can see that Silver also went parabolic in April 2011 and has come down sharply since.

Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

If silver would rise as much as during the ’70s (3,099%), it would have to rise to $129.56 per ounce.
Gold (Up 2,276% in the seventies), would have to rise towards $5,975.65.

Please notice that Alf Field has often called for $6,000 gold (link).

Martin Armstrong has also had a terrific track record. Here were his predictions he made in 1998 (see the last slide of this presentation):

1998 = Collapse of Russia
1999 = Low Gold & Oil
2000 = Technology Bubble (Like Railroads in 1907)
2002 = Bottom US Share Market
2007 = Real Estate Bubble, Oil hits $100
2009 = Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis
2011-15 = Japan Economic Decline
EURO begins to crack due to debt crisis
2015.75 = Sovereign Debt Big Bang

All of those predictions up till 2011 have come true. If the last one also comes true, then the above targets for Gold and Silver would become extremely likely as faith in paper currency would likely smelt like snow in the sun.

Good luck investing.

For more articles, trading Updates, Nightly Reports and much more, please visit www.profitimes.com and feel free to sign up for our services!

Willem Weytjens

www.profitimes.com

© 2012 Copyright Willem Weytjens - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014