Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Foreign Stock Markets Weakening Again

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Apr 01, 2012 - 02:52 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomewhat of a volatile week in the US markets, as the SPX rallied to 1419, dropped to 1392, and ended the week at 1408. The market made a new uptrend high, but the pullback that followed was more than expected. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.9%, as did the NDX/NAZ. Foreign markets were again less fortunate. Asian markets ended the week flat, European markets lost ground again this week, (-1.7%), and the DJ World index gained 0.2%. On the economic front there was a slight bias to the downside. On the uptick: durable goods orders, Q3 GDP, personal spending, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, the M1 multiplier, and new home prices. On the downtick: pending home sales, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, personal income, PCE prices, the Chicago PMI, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get a look at the Payrolls report, ISM and the FOMC minutes. Best to your week.


LONG TERM: bull market

Our indicators continue to confirm this bull market started in Mar09 at SPX 667. Now three years old, the SPX has more than doubled from that extremely oversold low. We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of a new Supercycle wave 3, multi-generational, bull market. Cycle wave [1] should consist of five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave III should consist of five Major waves. Major waves 1 and 2 completed at SPX 1293 and 1159 respectively in late 2011. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. Upon conclusion of Major wave 3, Major waves 4 and 5 should follow to complete Primary III. Then Primary waves IV and V should follow to complete the bull market. Currently we are anticipating a bull market high in the first half of 2013 between SPX 1545 and 1586.

On the economic front. Our fundamental indicators still remain bullish longer term as they continue to display neutral to bearish sentiment. Our WLEI, which monitors the economy, has risen from just below 40% in October to a neutral 50%. Our consumer sentiment reading has risen from a 30 year low in August around 20% to 41.2%. Sentiment is rising, but still bearish. Our MMIS indicator, which measures public investor sentiment, is still slightly bearish at 49.1%. We expect this will be improving as well when we receive the next update. Overall, even though the stock market has doubled the public is still generally on the sidelines.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1419

The current uptrend, Major wave 3, began in Nov11 at SPX 1159. The market has risen 260 SPX points, or 22% over the past four months. This bull market’s characteristics have displayed uptrends lasting 1, 3 or 6 months, and downtrends lasting 1 or 3 months. Since this uptrend is already 4 months old, it is likely to continue into May to complete the 6 month time pattern. The next two OEW pivots are at 1440 and 1499.

The internal wave pattern suggests we are currently in Intermediate wave v of a five Int. wave uptrend: wave 1 SPX 1267, wave 2 SPX 1202, wave 3 SPX 1378, wave 4 SPX 1340, and wave 5 underway. Fibonacci relationships, within this wave structure, suggest resistance at SPX 1407, 1448 and then 1516. SPX 1407 was exceeded last week, but the market appears to be having some trouble clearing this resistance area. After hitting SPX 1414 a week ago monday, the market has pulled back to 1387, rallied to 1419, then pulled back to 1392 this thursday. The market is also having trouble clearing an overhead trendline, displayed on the hourly chart below, that has contained the entire four month uptrend. Until this trendline is cleared this market could remain choppy for a while.

On the international front things are starting to deteriorate again. We last ran into this problem near the end of February. Then, we had about 10 of the 20 international indices we track in medium term downtrends. The US market stalled for a couple of weeks, had a 38 point pullback, (SPX 1378-1340), and then resumed the uptrend. The foreign markets also improved, on the back of the US rally, as 8 of those 10 indices turned around and confirmed uptrends. But this week, 3 foreign indices confirmed downtrends bringing the current total to 7. And 4 more are quite close to confirming downtrends as well. Should these foreign markets weaken further the US market could experience another significant pullback, or even enter a downtrend of its own.

In the US we are also noticing some recent weakness in the leading NDX index. In addition to monitoring the alternate uptrend has concluded count on the DOW charts. In late February, when these foreign headwinds first appeared, all four US major indices were making new uptrend highs and the NDX was quite strong. This time around the NDX has recently started losing momentum, red arrow, and the DOW has failed to make a new high. This suggests some caution ahead while this confluence of negativity works itself out.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum touched overbought on friday after forming a positive divergence on thursday. Our internal count for this uptrend suggests the market is currently in Intermediate wave v. Fifth waves are the last important rally of any uptrend. Since we are expecting the typical 80-120 SPX point correction after this uptrend ends, it is important to monitor this last rally closely. Thus far, after a strong advance from SPX 1340 to 1414 this market has run into a bit of trouble. The pattern since that high can currently be counted as corrective. As noted above the DOW has failed to make a new high. It was one of the two leaders, the NDX the other, during the early-mid stages of this uptrend. And the NDX displays a potentially completed five waves up with weakening short term momentum.

Until this situation clears some it might not hurt to get a bit defensive. For now, until we observe more wave development, we will rely on our OEW pivots and the wave characteristics of this uptrend. The OEW 1386 pivot has provided support for about three weeks. Should this pivot fail it will be our first alert. The next pivot is at 1372. A pullback into its range, 1365-1379, would be our second alert. Should this range fail to hold as well it would represent the largest pullback since December. And, this would suggest the uptrend has ended and a downtrend is underway. Overhead resistance is at SPX 1414, 1419 and then the OEW 1440 pivot. Should the SPX clear these first two resistance levels, it then needs to clear the overhead trendline, currently around 1425. After that the uptrend should resume on to the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Should be an interesting week.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week and ended with no change. China, Hong Kong and India are in confirmed downtrends.

The European markets were all lower for the second week in a row, losing 1.7%. England, Italy and Spain are in confirmed downtrends.

The Commodity equity group were also all lower for the second week in a row, losing 1.5%. Canada remains in a confirmed downtrend.

The DJ World index is still uptrending and gained 0.2% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.3% on the week after a rebound from an extremely oversold short term condition.

Crude confirmed a downtrend and lost 3.6% on the week.

Gold is still in a downtrend, had a somewhat volatile week, but gained 0.5%. This week’s pullback was also a bit more than expected, but if Gold can rally over $1700 an uptrend from the recent $1628 low is likely underway.

The USD was relatively flat on the week losing 0.4%. It is still in an uptrend, but any further downside pressure could confirm another downtrend.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the economic week with ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00. On tuesday we have Factory orders, Auto sales and the FOMC minutes. Wednesday, the ADP index and ISM services. Then on thursday, weekly Jobless claims. Friday ends the week with the Payrolls report, and Consumer credit. The FED has nothing else scheduled at this time. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules