Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How Do You Spell Stock Market Correction?

Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets Jan 16, 2008 - 11:27 AM GMT

By: Steve_Selengut

Stock-Markets During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future. And despite a still much too high DJIA, we are in the seventh month of a correction. (The eighth month if you own income securities.)


Corrections are part of the normal "shock market" menu, and can be brought about by either bad news or good news. (Yes, that's what I meant to say.) Investors always over-analyze when prices become weak and lose their common sense when prices are high, thus perpetuating the "buy high, sell low" Wall Street line dance. Waiting for the perfect moment to jump into a falling market is as foolish a strategy as taking losses on investment grade companies and holding cash.

Repetition is good for the brain's CPU, so forgive me for reinforcing what I've said in the face of every correction since 1979... if you don't love corrections, you really don't understand the financial markets. Don't be insulted, it seems as though very few financial professionals want you to see it this way and, in fact, Institutional Wall Street loves it when individual investors panic in the face of uncertainty. Psstt, uncertainty is the regulation playing field for investors, and hindsight isn't welcome in the stadium.

A closer examination of the news that's fit to print (but isn't printed often enough) should make you more confident about the years ahead, whatever your politics. There is still plenty of good news, but neither the media nor the presidential hopefuls pay much attention to it: (1) Employment, jobs, and unemployment numbers could be worse. (2) Manufacturing numbers aren't all that bad. (3) The inflation rate is historically low. (4) Interest rates are closer to historical lows than to hysterical highs. (5) Durable goods orders are fine. (6) Corporate earnings reports have been relatively strong. (7) Corporate dividend payouts have not been cut. (8) Our economy is still the biggest and strongest in the world, in spite of government efforts to prevent that from continuing. (9) We have had two consecutive mild hurricane seasons.

The bad news isn't all that bad either, pretty much the same ole stuff: (1) There's always been a war of some kind, particularly in the Middle East. (2) Energy prices are high, but I still don't see any gas lines, or any new exploration or refining capacity in North America. More than half the cars you see are SUV gas-guzzlers.  (3) Trade deficits, and jobs leaving the country are really not news; they are the result of misguided tax and tariff policies.  (4) High consumer debt. New? Not. (5) The terrorism threat has been a major serious problem for the past how many years? We're trying to deal with it. (6) The federal regulatory agencies probably do more damage to the economy than everything else combined. (7) Social Security, the IRC, and health care are still the major problems we face and continually ignore, even in election years.

Clearly, there are no new economic problems (credit problems don't qualify as new) to be overly concerned about. And for now, we simply have to deal with the opportunities at hand. The credit crunch has artificially forced fixed income prices down and yields up... Opportunity One! Economic news, recession (with inflation) fears, and the popularity of Equity based derivatives have caused Investment Grade Value Stock prices to trend downward... Opportunity Two! These forces of are intersecting with the Market Cycle, something Wall Street tries to ignore and the media constantly misunderstands. Markets move in both directions, it's their thing, just like politicians changing their minds... Opportunities One and Two, squared!

There is an Investment Mindset Solution for the problems that most people have dealing with corrections, and rallies too, for that matter. I've never understood why "yard sale prices" here are so scary. Prices of high quality securities always seem to bounce back eventually. And there need be no rush for this to happen...

In recent years, Wall Street and the media have turned the process of investing into a competitive event of Olympic proportions and stature. What was once a long term (a year is not long term), goal directed activity, has become a series of monthly and quarterly sprints. The direction of the market isn't nearly as important as the actions we take in anticipation of the next change in direction. Performance evaluation needs to be "rethunk" in terms of cycles!

The problems, and the solutions, boil down to focus, understanding, and retraining. You need to focus on the purposes of the securities in the portfolio. You need to understand and accept the normal behavior of your securities in the face of different environmental conditions. You need to overcome your obsession with calendar period Market Value analysis, and embrace a more manageable asset allocation approach that centers on your portfolio's Working Capital. You need to elect new people who know how to connect the economic dots, and who remember that "the business of America is business".

But for now, relax and enjoy this correction. It's your invitation to the fun and games of the next rally, when you will see that correction is spelled o-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y.

By Steve Selengut
800-245-0494
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.investmentmanagemen tbooks.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"

Disclaimer : Anything presented here is simply the opinion of Steve Selengut and should not be construed as anything else. One of the fascinating things about investing is that there are so many differing approaches, theories, and strategies. We encourage you to do your homework.

Steve Selengut Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Forbes
16 Jan 08, 13:48
Credit Crunch

Oh my god,

In the biggest credit crunch ever!, the author states that "Clearly, there are no new economic problems (credit problems don't qualify as new) to be overly concerned about." ?


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in